Regionals
 

I remember last year the regionals were super desperate but today you’d be lucky to get a call back with all the over hiring and training delays .

Yeah, the wave is over.

There are still plenty of super desperate regionals. The ones that ponied up and have good pay/QOL are being selective and the bottom feeders are still hiring anyone with a pulse.

As long as Mesa is around you have a shot

I think you’re definitely right about that ......

I think in a few years when mainline retirements pickup. The wave win come again to replace those who move up and out

It is true that things are changing and fast, but I don't think we can predict what's gonna happen short/long term. There a lot of factors involved in the equation...

:rolleyes:

The economy the next 5 years is the biggest variable. Retirements are predictable.

Would you guys call this a pilot shortage if the regionals are being picky ? 🧐

“The regionals” aren’t one company. If all of “the regionals” offered roughly the same pay and QOL they’d all be less picky. Right now you have 2-3 clear leaders and the rest aren’t nearly as strict.

I think the big wave is really yet to come if you look at the retirements coming. This current wave is over but I think that is because so many people have come back to flying, and that is a one time thing. I didn't touch an airplane for ten years and started flying again because of the "shortage", headed to ATP-CTP in 3 weeks. There are a lot of "lost decade" people like me in the pipeline right now.

And like others have said Endeavor and Republic have no shortage; the likes of Mesa and Trans States are desperate.

Absolutely... how many already went out of business.... the rest have had to increase pay and working conditions. The bottom feeders only do it just enough to keep meat in the seats. The better ones are equally screwed since the LCC’s and majors have sucked up theirs captains and even their senior FO’s, leaving FO’s that can’t upgrade, causing hiring of street captains at several regionals such that the training centers of the better ones are flat out just with upgrades trying to keep captains around.

Shortage? You better believe it. But it’s still only due to not offering real compensation and bonuses only. Increase actual pay and many will return to flying from their other careers. Guys making $100k elsewhere and home everyday aren’t going to go live in a crashpad and out of a suitcase for $50k-$60k, only to upgrade to a $75k to $90k CA job putting them back in a crashpad again. Face it, management has destroyed the quality of life, and stripped away the compensation over the past 40 years to the point that very very few want the job anymore. The current shortage is due to pay and QOL. In just a few more years it will become an actual physical shortage since there aren’t enough new starts to keep a good supply coming. Again, due to management making the job unattractive.

QOL and pay, along with seat comfort in back all come down to one thing in my opinion. How much the flying public is willing to pay. They aren’t Legacies will pay for now but the cycle will lead to bankruptcy for them. Just got to hope you miss the cycle when it’s most critical

Pilot shortage
 

So if the wave is over what would be the best decision:
1) sign up for a regional cadet program that offers a conditional job offer for once you reach ATP mins?
2) just keep plugging away and build hours and start throwing resumes out to all once you get close to the hours?
Was really hoping that with the hiring that was going on it was going to keep up for another year and a half or so.

Keep your nose clean, try to get some turbine time if you can, keep plugging away at hours and have a degree if possible. Cadet programs can’t hurt as long as there’s no commitment. CFI’s with degrees are still getting hired at desirable regionals, but you can’t half-ass the interview or explain away 4 checkride failures like you could at some less desirable regionals.

I'll bite. An honest question from a newbie. Not trolling!

What are the "2-3 clear leaders" in your eyes and a short explanation of why?

Thank you.

The problem is the top flight regionals with 2020 class dates and huge backlogs are pushing people into TSA/Gojet/Mesa.

Pilot supply is fairly consistent, demand is variable. When you have a constant 10-12 regional 'supply' of pilots and only 6 hiring, they tend to fill classes.

The ones that are paying more than 50k first year not including all of these rediculous bonuses. I’d say Endeavor, Republic and SkyWest are now the top 3 from a hard pay perspective.

Endeavor- Pay/QOL. Hourly rates are really high. Possible to make a considerable amount of money if you want to work and a comfortable amount of money if you don’t.

Republic- Good pay, stable, good schedules.

SkyWest- bases and quick upgrades, relatively high pay.

AA wholly owned’s if you don’t have a degree or have a bad record.

Cool, thanks. Sooo, that sounds like I will have to do a deep dive investigation into Skywest (with the possibility of no commute...).

Cheers

The fact that these programs still exist is a fairly strong indication that the shortage is far from over.

i do not work for them but from what i have heard i would add horizon to that list if you live on the west coast.

I would say 9E is highest hourly pay and some very nice things like pos space to work on 2nd attempt and higher priority on DL, RAH has good pay ( ca pay matches 9e in 2020, fo pay stays lower) but amazing work rules and pays for things like luggage, uniforms, and medicals. skywest has 2nd best fo pay and 3rd best ca pay based on hourly rates as well as a large ammount from bonus structure. they also have some descent work rules.

only thing AA wholly owned have is a direct path to AA. just about everything else about them would make them a bottom feeder but since they have a flow people put up with it.

just my 2 cents

That is a good point. I have just been reading about things slowing and also one of my top choices Republic seems to have full classes and are pushing class dates back due to bottle neck at the sims. Just didn’t know if that was a sign that they are starting to get more pilots than they have places for. Another one of my top choices is SkyWest and if you follow their social media you see all the big classes of new hires and it makes me wonder just how long that kind of hiring can last.

I don’t think the shortage is over I think this wave has passed , the cadet programs still exist because another wave is coming when the majors ramp up on hiring . Don’t know when that other wave will be but I hope it’s soon

I hope it doesn’t last very long it’ll create a bottle neck when it comes to pay and benefits. Why raise the pay if everyone is getting people to show up to class

Thanks for the educated and mature responses guys normally these threads turn into a **** show .

I think the cadet programs exist because they cost the airlines nearly nothing.

Restarting them would cost far more than letting them coast out.

That is true
Never thought about it like that 🤔

Another factor that is creating this current lull in hiring is the fact that Republic and Endeavor hired more FOs this year then they really needed in anticipation of more aircraft/flying in 2019 through acquisitions and possible scope relief. That either didn't pan out (scope relief) or now looks like to be in later 2019 and into 2020 (increased flying/aircraft). Because of that they are overloaded with FOs right now, and FOs in classes now will see reserve times increased to what Regional FOs haven't seen in years.

Glad I got in right before this wave ended. It is all dumb luck, nothing you, I , or anybody can control. It will come again, probably sooner then we all think.

The cadet programs along with the RTP and flow programs are another method regionals like the wholly owned's use to keep hourly wages low, and sign on bonus in place rather than contractual pay rates. At my WO we still have full classes, and for the amount of equipment we have on line, we may even be fat on pilots. They say we are short captains yet we have guys on reserve that haven't touched a plane in over a month, and as soon as an FO hits his 1000, he is forced to upgrade. We are fat captains, but this is by design as management know's that those coffers are going to deplete fast when the mainline carriers hit peak retirements in addition to the attrition caused by our flow.

One wave has crashed on the beach, but another one is looming on the horizon. The retirement numbers are a reality, how big that next wave will be is dependent on the economy and airline growth plans.

I think another strong indicator of what’s to come is keeping one’s finger on the pulse of major/legacy hiring competitive minimums. Right now they have tons of qualified applicants kicking down the doors, but I would suspect the competitive minimums will start to decrease in the coming years...

I think the biggest question is the fate of all of these people hired by the regionals in the past few years. Will mainline take them with the background issues?

What kind of background issues?

Republic hired many who had checkride and even some legal issues. They were very desperate in the past, but not anymore.

The regional's in the past few years have accepted people with much less experience, less education, more training failures, more speeding tickets and/or other run-ins with the law, and similar issues than the majors have - historically - accepted in new hires. The regional's did that, of course, because they were desperate, but it seems unlikely that the majors will ever be that desperate. So will this group wind up permanently capped as captains in the regionals? Or will they be accepted by the majors?

That's pretty much the question.

I can see where that would cause some not to be able to upgrade to the majors. I am making a career change and my goal right now is the regionals once I reach ATP mins. I already know going in that for me to get past the regionals I will either have to get a degree or the majors will have to loosen the requirements of having to have a degree. As of right now I am ok with making a career at the regionals.

I think it’s all about being honest , if you had a run in with the law be transparent I had a friend who had a run in with the law and told United about it right now he’s in the right seat of a 737 .

Seasonal pause. I expect it to pick up soon. The poster that noted Sr fo’s leaving regionals is right on. The mid level captains and senior fo’s are the ones leaving at Mesa on the crj side. There isn’t enough of a pay bump vs QOL to get people wanting to upgrade. While things were better for a month we are falling back down into being short again overall and especially short of captains.

There is always going to be a quality cut between regionals and majors. The pay alone will allow the majors to attract people who would not be attracted to regional life (many corporate and mil pilots for example).

I think standards will drop a bit, but what I have observed is that *some* folks with background issues can move beyond it, while others cannot.

Factors include the nature and number of glitches, and where they fall in your timeline. A single glitch while young can be chalked up to a learning experience, as long as the lesson was learned. Even a pattern of glitches at a young age might be tolerable, with time passed and no recent occurrences.

Issues at an older age (25+) are going to be more problematic, and they will want to see plenty of time passed, like ten years for anything significant like DUI. A pattern of of problems for older person is going to pretty much be a no-go for most majors (and some regionals).

For those with issues, whether you can overcome the past depends also on how you address those past issues (get professional interview prep). Also you want to look like a great all-around professional pilot and person who just hit a speedpump in life, so multiple type ratings, TPIC, instructor duty, leadership, community involvement will all help of course.

But at some point the majors will simply draw a hard line, and sponsor squeeky-clean kids via ab initio programs rather than keep lowering standards. I suspect that point is someone with legal issues as an older adult, or a pattern of issues over time. At some point they might simply prefer to slow growth or even park planes, but I don't know what their threshold really is for that.

stolen from another site, there is a BIG wave coming

http://i68.tinypic.com/iwiudt.jpg