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-   -   Pilot Shortage: Real or Nah? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/122810-pilot-shortage-real-nah.html)

Excargodog 07-12-2019 08:08 AM

However a young unattached guy could make a pretty good living hopping from one first year bonus situation to another, then one DEC situation to another, just skimming off first year bonuses and accumulating type ratings. No doubt hone his video gaming skills on reserve too. ;)

UnbeatenPath 07-12-2019 09:55 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 2852062)
However a young unattached guy could make a pretty good living hopping from one first year bonus situation to another, then one DEC situation to another, just skimming off first year bonuses and accumulating type ratings. No doubt hone his video gaming skills on reserve too. ;)

Except you'd be using the bonuses at the next companies to pay off the contract at the others and probably wouldn't look good if you're wanting to move on

Cujo665 07-12-2019 10:17 AM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2851804)
Something like 26k.

Looking at roughly 82k my second year.

So you are saying $66k was your base bay without the bonus. That sounds like first year street Captain pay, not a new FO.... unless you are including a ton of overtime, in which case you're never home.

DarkSideMoon 07-12-2019 03:41 PM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852123)
So you are saying $66k was your base bay without the bonus. That sounds like first year street Captain pay, not a new FO.... unless you are including a ton of overtime, in which case you're never home.

Ton of overtime, but who cares. It’s one year. I upgraded as soon as I hit 1000 PIC and now I can dial it back to a much more reasonable schedule. Even if you have kids/a family they can handle one year; most other high paid jobs will require 150% of you your first year too. Also plenty of instructing/extracurricular options that improve quality of life are now available to basically anyone off probation. Those jobs would’ve required way more experience back in the day.

rld1k 07-12-2019 04:08 PM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2852238)
Ton of overtime, but who cares. It’s one year. I upgraded as soon as I hit 1000 PIC and now I can dial it back to a much more reasonable schedule. Even if you have kids/a family they can handle one year; most other high paid jobs will require 150% of you your first year too. Also plenty of instructing/extracurricular options that improve quality of life are now available to basically anyone off probation. Those jobs would’ve required way more experience back in the day.

Yeah man most jobs require you to be away from your home 22-23 days a month to make 60k

Paid2fly 07-12-2019 08:16 PM


Originally Posted by rld1k (Post 2852248)
Yeah man most jobs require you to be away from your home 22-23 days a month to make 60k






Hopefully not serious?

:confused:


:eek:

DarkSideMoon 07-12-2019 09:01 PM


Originally Posted by rld1k (Post 2852248)
Yeah man most jobs require you to be away from your home 22-23 days a month to make 60k

No, but they require nights and weekends, even if unofficially, and other infringements on your free time. When I’m not at work I have 0 work obligations. Work like crazy your first year and you can make just as much with 12-15 days off after you upgrade. Buddy of mine is a consultant and he’s gone 4 days a week and in the office on his fifth. Weekends aren’t truly free either.

LowerLoon185 07-13-2019 06:28 AM


Originally Posted by rld1k (Post 2852248)
Yeah man most jobs require you to be away from your home 22-23 days a month to make 60k

While not directly aimed at you, this post is another example of where many on APC really just need to take breath and think about perspective. Yes, jobs where the comp ceiling is 60 to 90k rarely require this much travel...but they are out there (construction), blue collar oil and gas, etc.

A much better analogy though, is a job where the “junior executives” have the pay potential in the 300k to 400k range. Energy, Finance, Banking. Those guys graduate from top schools, with high GPA’s, with sometimes high student debt to work a 50-60k a year job 80 hours a week. They do this for sometimes 5 to 6 years to get over 100k, hoping for a chance at that first “lead” position or a project that has a large bonus opportunity. Lot of hotel rooms, going home at 2:00 AM to get a toothbrush and clean clothes just to come back in 3 hours and do it all over again.

I think retaining the perspective that a regional job is the opportunity to get paid to learn and get experience to set you up for your dream job is essential. That’s what countless other industries require. Lots of people out there grinding it out, airline pilots are not unique...not in the slightest.

TimetoClimb 07-13-2019 06:31 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2851690)
Classes are full, but the airlines aren’t growing. The sucking sound from the top is still in many cases almost more than they can hire.

This just proves we are in a hiring wave, not an actual shortage...that by definition would require there to be inadequate replacement numbers, which remains to be seen (at skywest, republic, envoy, endeavor and psa aka 80% of the regional industry).

Interestingly what's developing is not a shortage of 1500hr pilots but rather slightly experienced 2000-4000hr pilots willing to go to ACMI or a good 135 or any pay tier lower than LCC. However, I concede that 121 regional captains will remain to be bottleneck.

Just look at the places that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow. ..that's where they are hurting. Around 5-10 percent of (undesirable)121 jobs I'd surmise.

By 2023 the picture could be different but it's anyone's guess.

UNDGUY 07-14-2019 06:13 AM

"Interestingly what's developing is not a shortage of 1500hr pilots but rather slightly experienced 2000-4000hr pilots willing to go to ACMI or a good 135 or any pay tier lower than LCC. However, I concede that 121 regional captains will remain to be bottleneck.

Just look at the places that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow. ..that's where they are hurting. Around 5-10 percent of (undesirable)121 jobs I'd surmise."


What companies are you referring to when you say ACMI and good 135's that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow? I'm not opposed to either one if the pay is right and it's a decent company. Every place I've applied to hasn't called. 4200TT, 3 jet type ratings, current regional FO.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:00 AM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2852238)
Ton of overtime, but who cares. It’s one year. I upgraded as soon as I hit 1000 PIC and now I can dial it back to a much more reasonable schedule. Even if you have kids/a family they can handle one year; most other high paid jobs will require 150% of you your first year too. Also plenty of instructing/extracurricular options that improve quality of life are now available to basically anyone off probation. Those jobs would’ve required way more experience back in the day.

If staffing were up to standard there would be zero overtime except for vacations. So, there still exists a shortage. If staffing were up to normal, your income would be your hourly x1000 at best and hourly x900 minimum guarantee.
They can’t keep the seats filled. That’s why you’re getting bonus checks and higher hourly rates. That my friend is a shortage. If there were no shortage you’d still be getting $26 an hour first year.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:01 AM


Originally Posted by rld1k (Post 2852248)
Yeah man most jobs require you to be away from your home 22-23 days a month to make 60k

Exactly....

TimetoClimb 07-14-2019 07:09 AM


Originally Posted by UNDGUY (Post 2852939)
"Interestingly what's developing is not a shortage of 1500hr pilots but rather slightly experienced 2000-4000hr pilots willing to go to ACMI or a good 135 or any pay tier lower than LCC. However, I concede that 121 regional captains will remain to be bottleneck.

Just look at the places that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow. ..that's where they are hurting. Around 5-10 percent of (undesirable)121 jobs I'd surmise."


What companies are you referring to when you say ACMI and good 135's that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow? I'm not opposed to either one if the pay is right and it's a decent company. Every place I've applied to hasn't called. 4200TT, 3 jet type ratings, current regional FO.

121- atlas, abx
135 - basically all of them are hiring and 121 PIC time is golden. Netjets, vistajet, jetsuite x . Just look at the banner ads on this site and jet careers.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:12 AM


Originally Posted by TimetoClimb (Post 2852438)
This just proves we are in a hiring wave, not an actual shortage...that by definition would require there to be inadequate replacement numbers, which remains to be seen (at skywest, republic, envoy, endeavor and psa aka 80% of the regional industry).

Wrong, if it were simply a hiring wave they’d still be paying new hires $26 an hour. There is a shortage. Hence the significant raises, bonus programs, and 200% and 300% overtime’s. 2006-2013 was a hiring wave, when regionals hired like crazy and 250 hours got you in the door... wages were stagnant. There absolutely is a shortage, initially it was pay and working conditions driven. In just a few years it will become a physical shortage, and globally it will be worse outside the US.


Originally Posted by TimetoClimb (Post 2852438)
Interestingly what's developing is not a shortage of 1500hr pilots but rather slightly experienced 2000-4000hr pilots willing to go to ACMI or a good 135 or any pay tier lower than LCC. However, I concede that 121 regional captains will remain to be bottleneck.

Just look at the places that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow. ..that's where they are hurting. Around 5-10 percent of (undesirable)121 jobs I'd surmise.

By 2023 the picture could be different but it's anyone's guess.


Precisely why several of the ACMI have increased wages well above the LCC’s. An example, Omni has the highest first year rate in the entire 121 industry at $119 per hour. First year pay is above most regional top step CA pay. The top step 767 pay is $297 an hour and is above several legacy rates on the same equipment.

One thing is for sure, it’s a great time to be a pilot.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 07:16 AM


Originally Posted by UNDGUY (Post 2852939)
"


What companies are you referring to when you say ACMI and good 135's that return calls immediately and have class dates like tomorrow? I'm not opposed to either one if the pay is right and it's a decent company. Every place I've applied to hasn't called. 4200TT, 3 jet type ratings, current regional FO.

The ACMI typically prefer 1000 PIC, with the exception being the places you wouldn’t want to go to anyway.

Excargodog 07-14-2019 07:47 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852963)
The ACMI typically prefer 1000 PIC, with the exception being the places you wouldn’t want to go to anyway.

Everybody PREFERS 1000 TPIC.

Why wouldn't They?

DarkSideMoon 07-14-2019 07:50 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852954)
If staffing were up to standard there would be zero overtime except for vacations. So, there still exists a shortage. If staffing were up to normal, your income would be your hourly x1000 at best and hourly x900 minimum guarantee.
They can’t keep the seats filled. That’s why you’re getting bonus checks and higher hourly rates. That my friend is a shortage. If there were no shortage you’d still be getting $26 an hour first year.

:confused:
I’ve always said there’s a shortage. I’ve never argued that there wasn’t.

Slow2Final 07-14-2019 09:02 AM


Originally Posted by LowerLoon185 (Post 2852437)
I think retaining the perspective that a regional job is the opportunity to get paid to learn and get experience to set you up for your dream job is essential

This idea sounds like the selling point used to pay less. Regionals are held to the same 121 standard as mainline. Why would anyone consider it a learning experience? The job should be nearly the same as that of a mainline position.

Cujo665 07-14-2019 09:07 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 2852977)
Everybody PREFERS 1000 TPIC.

Why wouldn't They?

1000 PIC is not the same as 1000 TPIC. Several ACMI only list it as a 1000 PIC, unlike the legacies which list 1000 TPIC....
Several LCC’s actively recruit senior regional FOs and junior CA’s that do not have the 1000 TPIC the legacies prefer. It keeps them at the LCC to upgrade, get their hours, and then move on to a legacy before becoming an expensive senior CA. That is happening to a lesser degree now that the LCC’s pay almost as well as the legacies.

TimetoClimb 07-14-2019 09:37 AM


Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 2852962)
Wrong, if it were simply a hiring wave they’d still be paying new hires $26 an hour. There is a shortage. Hence the significant raises, bonus programs, and 200% and 300% overtime’s. 2006-2013 was a hiring wave, when regionals hired like crazy and 250 hours got you in the door... wages were stagnant. There absolutely is a shortage, initially it was pay and working conditions driven. In just a few years it will become a physical shortage, and globally it will be worse outside the US.




Precisely why several of the ACMI have increased wages well above the LCC’s. An example, Omni has the highest first year rate in the entire 121 industry at $119 per hour. First year pay is above most regional top step CA pay. The top step 767 pay is $297 an hour and is above several legacy rates on the same equipment.

One thing is for sure, it’s a great time to be a pilot.

I hope you're right, believe me. The wage increases have slowed down substantially so perhaps the equilibrium has been reached for the time being.

Excargodog 07-14-2019 11:05 AM


Originally Posted by TimetoClimb (Post 2853021)
I hope you're right, believe me. The wage increases have slowed down substantially so perhaps the equilibrium has been reached for the time being.

Do not underestimate the effect that parking all the MAX’s has. That is a lot of aircraft capacity, not just current capacity but capacity planned for expansion, that is temporarily offline.

LowerLoon185 07-14-2019 01:38 PM


Originally Posted by Slow2Final (Post 2853005)
This idea sounds like the selling point used to pay less. Regionals are held to the same 121 standard as mainline. Why would anyone consider it a learning experience? The job should be nearly the same as that of a mainline position.

Maybe I’m reading you wrong, but are you saying that the guy in the right seat of an RJ in his first real paying flying job hauling people isn’t on a learning curve and gaining valuable experience? Or the guy to his left, having just crossed the 1000 hour 121 mark in his first captain job isn’t learning or gaining experience? I’d say both those guys should be drinking from a firehose (that’s a good thing).

Contrast that with a SWA 8-year FO that had 2500 hours of jet PIC time in the air force before he got his now 8000 hours at a major; you think the market is going to compensate those FOs the same? Again, I may be misreading you but professionals get compensated largely based on breadth of experience and history of demonstrated performance.

DarkSideMoon 07-14-2019 05:47 PM


Originally Posted by LowerLoon185 (Post 2853136)
Maybe I’m reading you wrong, but are you saying that the guy in the right seat of an RJ in his first real paying flying job hauling people isn’t on a learning curve and gaining valuable experience? Or the guy to his left, having just crossed the 1000 hour 121 mark in his first captain job isn’t learning or gaining experience? I’d say both those guys should be drinking from a firehose (that’s a good thing).

Contrast that with a SWA 8-year FO that had 2500 hours of jet PIC time in the air force before he got his now 8000 hours at a major; you think the market is going to compensate those FOs the same? Again, I may be misreading you but professionals get compensated largely based on breadth of experience and history of demonstrated performance.

What is “demonstrated performance”? Either you meet ATP standards or you don’t. 5000 TPIC doesn’t mean you’re a great captain that always shows up on time and does whatever is needed to provide excellent service, it means they’ve gone 5000 hours without losing their license. Without access to performance data and such you really can’t judge whether one pilot is better or more qualified than another simply based on total time. I know plenty of 10,000 hour plus jackwagons that milk the clock and can barely land to save their life.

ZeroTT 07-14-2019 05:55 PM

even people who become great captains are rarely there at 50 tpic.

Total time requirements screen out inexperience. That has value

DarkSideMoon 07-14-2019 05:57 PM


Originally Posted by ZeroTT (Post 2853257)
even people who become great captains are rarely there at 50 tpic.

Total time requirements screen out inexperience. That has value

Between 0-1000, sure. 2000-5000? Probably not.

C17B74 07-16-2019 11:15 PM

Experience(d) - having gained knowledge or skill in a particular field over time.

We all come across those with innate flying talent and they are the exceptions (not me). As someone alluded to earlier, there are those few 10,000-25,000 hr plus that probably shouldn’t be in this career from the beginning. The majority lie in the middle class of hours and have garnered experience that is based on their bag of tricks they have accumulated over time. All these backgrounds (cookie-cutter or not) provide some amazing talent and stories from which we should draw from.

Flying point A-B-A-B-A, you can definitely master your universe rather quickly. Granted, things can go hairy no matter what you do. Go to point C - Now throw in over-water, language barrier, comm-out, eng fail, etc. it’s always better to be over terra firma, well maybe not if your a float plane or fly the Northern Territories, Alps, etc. Or even D flying where you are not purely scheduled runs, but at the whim of your customers hitting all the continents and in the most diverse environment. It’s not for everybody. But I must say 4, 5 or more legs a day isn’t for me so it’s a matter of perspective as well.

We move from seat to seat for a reason.
Many pilots of today haven’t experienced what the masters of decades before have with technology advancements we take for granted so when it does hit the fan, hopefully you have that experience, knowledge or know-how to handle it. It’s not a guarantee for success by any means, but it can be handy. Of course, a few need to catch up to the magenta line masters as well.

My goal: Strive to learn something new (and I do); if you’re learning a lot, your doing something wrong.

You can always point out several folks who keep you on your toes all the time. I will say to those who step up and stay in the game from beginning to end regardless of their accrued hours, thanks for bringing your A game and doing that crew thing!!! Off topic, apologies.

teamflyer 07-17-2019 10:21 AM

No such thing as pilot shortage when single pilot is approved. Just imagine the furloughs that will happen... I honestly dont know why anyone would still pursue a career in this field

DarkSideMoon 07-17-2019 10:31 AM


Originally Posted by teamflyer (Post 2854721)
No such thing as pilot shortage when single pilot is approved. Just imagine the furloughs that will happen... I honestly dont know why anyone would still pursue a career in this field

You could say the same thing about almost any other profession. Automation is around the corner for everyone.

teamflyer 07-17-2019 10:51 AM


Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 2854724)
You could say the same thing about almost any other profession. Automation is around the corner for everyone.

Perhaps, but it seems this profession is next up. I dont hear anything about doctors, engineers, lawyers, plumbers, mechanics being phased out...

SonicFlyer 07-17-2019 10:59 AM


Originally Posted by teamflyer (Post 2854732)
Perhaps, but it seems this profession is next up. I dont hear anything about doctors, engineers, lawyers, plumbers, mechanics being phased out...

Actually AI is a very real thing for lawyers these days, and it is quickly becoming a thing for doctors too.


https://interestingengineering.com/a...igence-and-law


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/11/h...diagnosis.html

DarkSideMoon 07-17-2019 11:53 AM


Originally Posted by teamflyer (Post 2854732)
Perhaps, but it seems this profession is next up. I dont hear anything about doctors, engineers, lawyers, plumbers, mechanics being phased out...

They’re already using AI to interpret medical imaging (spoiler, it does a way better job than most humans).

https://money.cnn.com/2017/07/14/technology/business/radiology-doctors-artificial-intelligence/index.html

It’s also coming for lawyers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/lawyers-on-the-automation-chopping-block-as-ai-gets-jd/

And engineers (despite their assurances that they aren’t automating engineers away, having more efficient engineers means less of them)
https://genussolutions.com/pdf/Autom..._Solutions.pdf

Plumbers and mechanics are harder to phase out. However plumbing is moving towards much easier materials to work with (I can install my own PVC easily, I would much rather pay a plumber if I had to work with metal pipes.) Cars are also moving towards less moving parts and more modular components. Even in aviation it’s getting harder and harder to find someone willing to actually rebuild a mag vs just swapping one out.

The world and the world economy will probably look completely alien to us in 50-100 years. Big changes coming for everyone.

tomgoodman 07-17-2019 12:06 PM

Jean Harlow warned us about machines in 1933... :D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EQNQqwFK-OM

QxFacts 07-17-2019 12:19 PM


Originally Posted by LowerLoon185 (Post 2853136)
Maybe I’m reading you wrong, but are you saying that the guy in the right seat of an RJ in his first real paying flying job hauling people isn’t on a learning curve and gaining valuable experience? Or the guy to his left, having just crossed the 1000 hour 121 mark in his first captain job isn’t learning or gaining experience? I’d say both those guys should be drinking from a firehose (that’s a good thing).

Contrast that with a SWA 8-year FO that had 2500 hours of jet PIC time in the air force before he got his now 8000 hours at a major; you think the market is going to compensate those FOs the same? Again, I may be misreading you but professionals get compensated largely based on breadth of experience and history of demonstrated performance.

The 8000hr guy and the 2500hr guy both have to perform to the exact same standards and level of responsibility. If you don’t trust the 2500hr guy then he shouldn’t have been hired period.

Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

SonicFlyer 07-17-2019 03:24 PM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

Blame the unions.

msprj2 07-18-2019 04:31 AM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
The 8000hr guy and the 2500hr guy both have to perform to the exact same standards and level of responsibility. If you don’t trust the 2500hr guy then he shouldn’t have been hired period.

Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

Exactly
Let’s have two first officers. Pay them the same. Give mgt a bonus

sailingfun 07-18-2019 04:51 AM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
The 8000hr guy and the 2500hr guy both have to perform to the exact same standards and level of responsibility. If you don’t trust the 2500hr guy then he shouldn’t have been hired period.

Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

So compensation should not be tied to both experience and revenue generation? Interesting, you are going to turn the world wide systems of employment for the last 1000 years upside down!

DarkSideMoon 07-18-2019 10:53 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2855033)
So compensation should not be tied to both experience and revenue generation? Interesting, you are going to turn the world wide systems of employment for the last 1000 years upside down!

Flight time and ability past being able to pass recurrent is irrelevant. If you want to tie compensation to revenue generation they’d track how many times pilots pushed on time or got extra pax on the flight, etc. those stats aren’t really used for compensation, which means the 500 hour captain and the 5000 hour captain are functionally the same for the company.

DoSomePilotStuf 07-18-2019 11:05 AM

Compensation is tied to supply and demand. How many people are willing to do the job for less than you are?

Unionization disrupts a true free labor market, which is why once you do have enough experience to move on to a major we get significantly more. We are united and can bargain collectively. Harder to do that at the ground floor, which is basically where regional pilots are.

You can complain all you want, but the facts are the facts.

If you don’t like it you can just leave! Lol

Seriously though, you can. The reason pay has gone up at the regional level is because demand has increased and to increase supply to an appropriate level pay has to be increased. It’s about what you cost to replace, not how valuable you are.

This also brings up the point that union dues don’t bring near as much value at this level as they do at the next. Valuable, just not as valuable.

Cujo665 07-18-2019 12:05 PM


Originally Posted by QxFacts (Post 2854771)
Compensation should be nearly the same with some increment for longevity and seat. Not worlds of pay apart for doing the same job. 2 tier system is trash.

Your value to the company is directly proportional to the revenue you create. They can't pay a guy flying a 50 seat jet the same as a guy flying a 166 seat jet. The revenue generated isn't even close. It's over 3 times the revenue on a much lower CASM.

This is the same reason major league sports players earn more than the minor league players. They play the same game, and do the same job. One just generates much more revenue.

Mjm8710 07-18-2019 01:24 PM

Well Top Gun 2 trailer is out...looks like our so called pilot shortage is about to be over after this comes out...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cVRHG6z7sN8


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