UnprotectdPilot

Obviously there is not a pilot shortage at the big leagues, but rather a squeeze on labor at the regional level due to relatively high minimums for poor pay.

However.

Is there any precedent or reason to believe competitive minimums for major airline gigs will come down as the retirements continue?

I'm cautiously optimistic that there is going to be lots of opportunity in the years ahead, but I can't help but feel that with lots of qualified pilots coming out of the wood works (former airline pilots that left and coming back, military fixed- and rotary-wing pilots leaving the service in droves, collegiate aviation grads, pilot mill CFI puppies, etc.), apps are just flooding majors making the jobs just as competitive as ever.

Discuss.

rswitz

It will never be easy to get a job at Delta, UA, AA etc. There will always be a 3 mile line for those jobs.

That's pretty much all that matters.

Bahamasflyer

Don't forget too that unlike every boom in the past, this one is different as there is a major hurdle from the supply side that didn't exist in the past.

The 1500 hr rule of course

TransWorld

Remember over the next decade, 2/3 of all AA pilots and 1/2 of all UA and DL pilots will retire. Rarely has any occupation ever seen that high a percentage of retirements.

Not saying getting a job at any of the big 6 will ever be a cakewalk. But the vacuum cleaner suction will greatly shorten the stack of qualified pilot resumes in the in basket. It already has.

HSCompressor

If the "pilot shortage" really does happen the first people DAL, AAL, and UAL will hire will probably be pilots from the ULCCs and LCCs. After all, they're the biggest direct threat/competition.

Look at Piedmont and Frontier. Apparently Frontier loves some Piedmont pilots. If AAL was really desperate they could immediately start hiring pilots from Frontier.

The same thing with JetBlue and United. Etc. Etc.

Say what you will about them hiring military pilots. If a shortage really does happen, and it's as desperate as everyone says, poaching from other pilot groups will be the telling sign.

Until then, it'll be easier, but not easy. (just my opinion of course)

SoFloFlyer

I just look at the numbers. In the next decade, there’s something like 30,000 pilots retiring at the majors, but there’s only about regional 20,000 pilots. Some of which won’t jump ship. And those are just for retirement, not accounting growth.

Disclaimer: I don’t have the exact figures in front of me so those are rounded numbers. Don’t kill me lol

Meow1215

No, there is no pilot shortage.

Mjm8710

Nope, no shortage..the “shortage” became a huge talking point when the 1500 hour rule was imposed and airlines that paid low wages were making excuses why they couldn’t find qualified pilots willing to fly on food stamps anymore.

Yes there are a lot of retirements on the horizon, but I think the only shortages you will see will be at the regional level.

Excargodog

Yet hiring away their pilots would make the situation worse, not better. Because those pilots would be replaced by new - more junior - pilots who would be costing the ULCC/LCC even LESS money because they would be more junior and even lower on the Payscale.

A lot of people seem to believe that the majors actually WANT to populate. Their pilot group with 25 year olds so they wouldn’t have to find a replacement for 45 years. Well they don’t. An initial type-rating is actually pretty cheap, not a whole lot more money than annual recurrency training. And it isn’t as if a 25 year old pilot would only get one type rating during his/her career at a major. Recruiting replacement pilots is not a major expense either. If major airlines really had their druthers, they’d probably take nothing but 45 year old retired military pilots, some one who already has one pension and government provided health care. Somebody with a long history of NOT being in a union.

Then they’d have them be an FO for ten years, upgrade them for their last ten years, then give them their gold watch and send them on their way. They’d only be at the top rung of the salary ladder for eight of those years, whereas someone hired at age 25 would spend 28 years there. Do the math. The ANNUAL savings in pay woukd more than cover the costs of providing ‘new’ retirees with a type rating. And that’s REALLY why the legacies will fall all over themselves to take some 45 year old retired O-5 or O-6 with less than 2500 hours who flew an A-10 until he made major and then flew a desk for the past 10 years over someone with 2500 hours of 121 time from one of their own regional feeders.

It’s not like they need to hedge their bets they may need to bomb or strafe someone, it’s that they are making money on the regional pilot right where he is, and a succession of retired military old farts will keep the payline down.

And yeah, while they are really not above hiring away some people from an ULCC, what they would really like to see is those people stick around long enough that the demographics of the ULCC become - like that of the legacy - MORE SENIOR so the ULCC won’t have near as much of a payroll advantage. Bad enough that a 12 year legacy captain costs 50% more than a 12 year LCC captain, but the AVERAGE pilot at an ULCC may only be at the three year point in pay while the legacy has thousands of senior pilots and an average seniority if 20+ years.

With both airlines flying the same equipment and buying fuel from the same vendors a more junior workforce is the big advantage the LCC/ULCC has.

V12Merlin

The dogs!t carriers are definitely feeling the pain.

I’m lovin’ it!!