No pilot shortage, but lots of movement. Some good observations, and theories, but what anyone has failed to mention is the effect of the economy going forward. One big economic downturn and all those retirements will be matched by downsizing of the industry, and pilot hiring will slow.

 

Granted, there are pilots willing to move on that’s not at the LCCs, but those numbers don’t include growth. 1%, 2%, or even 3% growth will require about 40K-55K in hiring (retirement + growth). Food for thought

 

Not talking straight payscales, talking what they are actually paying. Take Spirit. They’ve basically only been a player since 2007 and really didn’t start expanding until 2014. Very few of their pilots have anything like 12 years seniority. Yeah, their 12 year pay might not differ that much from that of Delta or United, but damn few of their captains and even fewer FOs are at those lofty seniority levels. JetBlue too. Their major expansion started about 2010.

Lots of pilots with very little time at the company mean reduced crew costs. A Delta 20 year captain and 12 year FO cost ( counting 401k) well over $500 an hour to fly a 320. Spirit with a five year captain and a 3 year FO costs about $350 an hour to fly the same equipment.

A newly hired crew is a cheap crew.

 

I referenced Southwest and JetBlue because you said LCC 12 year captains cost 50% less than 12 year Legacy captains. Spirit is considered a ULCC like you mentioned in your first post so I know you know the difference.

I’m talking about your statement of LCC Captains costing 50% less. SWA is 40 years old and JetBlue is 20 years old plenty of the captains are on year 12 pay. 401k contribution is the same at JetBlue and Southwest too. So same ~$500/hr to operate the 320 or 737.

Also, almost 1/3 (4,000/14,000) of Delta’s pilots have only been on the seniority list for 5 years or less. Newly hired crew as you call it.

As a former CPZ brother (correct me if I’m wrong) I’m not trying to bust your chops on this or be THAT guy. I just wanted to point out LCC’s like SWA and JB don’t have captains out here flying around at a 50% discount compared to our legacy counterparts. That’s all.

 

I’ll concede that I wasn’t thinking SWA, more JB, Spirit, Frontier, and soon to be Moxy-whatever.

But my point was that the new (and newly expanding) airlines do CURRENTLY enjoy an advantage and that while yes, they have some junior people on board, as the upcoming retirement wave demonstrates, they’ve had a lot of pilots that have been in the top of the payscales for a long long time. And yeah, 50% was undoubtedly a little hyperbole.

Not criticizing anyone, just looking at the demographics and the resulting economics. And ten years from now most of the legacies will have a far less senior demographic, precisely because of those retirees. Read a business article a few years ago about the effect of the increase in retirement age from 60 to 65. One of the things it did was rather dramatically increase the average longevity (and hence the average personnel costs) since almost all those retained were super senior.

The savings in training costs by having people work five years longer were a blip compared to the increase in personnel costs that the increased seniority cost.

The accountants at management no doubt read the same article. Which is why, I believe, they are just as happy to keep flows and preference programs as slow as they believe they can. Your opinion may vary....

 

No big deal, it’s pretty common for people to lump SWA with the Legacies and JB with the ULCC. But I’d say, between the two of them, they are the only true LCC in the US (even though Delta is probably the only airline that consistently comes close to matching the product at JetBlue). Neither is a legacy or an ULCC.

JB was lagging while waiting on a contract but now that one is in place the payscale and retirements are identical to SWA and about 3-5% behind the legacies operating the same equipment. We will be continuing to work to close that small gap that the legacies currently have on us.

 

Bonus points for using the word “pedantic”. Didn’t know what it meant, looked it up, turns out I might be a pedant. Also, I think you’re being a tiny bit pedantic. But I’m glad. Because I learned something from the ensuing discussion.

 

By the way, nice dialogue SaturnV and excargodog. I mean that sincerely. If everyone on the forum could parley back and forth without things escalating out of control while showing sound logic and conceding points when need be... why, the world would be a better place. Well done.

 

Shut the **** up.

Sorry, it was getting a little too un-APC for a minute.

 

Amem brother.

Why does everyone have to be so snarky? Thanks for keeping it civil guys.