3 Regional Offers...
 

You can. I would highly suggest once you make a decision to call and resign your place in class. Thank them for the opportunity but let them know a better offer came up. Last thing you want to do is no show day 1.

The way things are looking you should

1) take the very first date possible
2) shoot for stability over all else (dunno exactly what that means but take your best guess)

Be very cautious about this. Give them a notice you see as sufficient, but understand that classes can be canceled. If you have declined an offer, then a week prior to class your first choice cancels your class I can guarantee that the other offer won't stand anymore.

Saw one guy get burned doing this when multiple companies he had accepted offers from tried to book him with the same 3rd party CTP vendor.

You’re not hired until your butt is sitting in class. If you get caught playing games, as defined by the airline, you’ll be out of luck. Pick one and thank the other two for considering you. If something then happens to the offer you took, you’ll be in a much better position to call your second choice and get a class date.

Don't go to skywest.

They don't like redheads?

Better go to Expressjet, right?

Right. They've never furloughed a pilot. Definitely don't want to miss your golden opportunity for furlough bragging rights, especially with coronavirus looming.

You're not a real pilot until you've been furloughed, gone out on strike, and been divorced. Be really cool to check off one of those boxes just weeks into your career. If you're lucky that might lead to another box checked in short order, if your wife expects you to have an income.

The downside of Skywest is you won't get to check the strike box.

On a serious note... if you're looking at any small botique regionals, better do your homework. Those seem to be subject to being spontaneously liquidated even in the best of times. Make sure you understand their financial, operational, and contract status.

what in the world qualifies as a “boutique” regional?

Well, ****. I better get started!

Stability, pay, largest regional in the country, stellar reputation...sure don’t go to SkyWest.
stop the hate...

Does SkyWest have any contracts expiring within the next year or two? Totally serious question I have no idea where to find the info. What about RAH and Mesa? I’m curious because it seems obvious to me this would be the first regional flying cut, but if everything is on a long term contract that changes the equation dramatically.

boutique air
silver
gojet

basically airlines that aren’t
1) really big
2) wholly owned
3) mesa

an airline that could just go poof if United exercised a force majeure clause or even just didn’t pay for two months

You mean like TSA's 10 year contract..... look, contracts mean absolutely zero. The day of who has the best CPA are over. Todays currency is who is getting the pilots.
Unless you're already working, the only places to go are (in order):
Endeavor
Envoy/PSA
Piedmont
Republic/SkyWest
ExpressJet
Mesa
The only thing that would change order would be living in base.

The rest will be going through reorganizations, mergers, bankruptcies, acquisitions, buyouts all which create stagnation, potential downgrades and nasty things you want to avoid.

Why would anyone go to an AA WO when it's unclear when AA will start hiring again?

Republic has a handful of CPAs expiring in the next 2-3 years, but they represent a comparatively small fraction of our total flying. I don't know exactly what percentages. I'd guess in the 10-30% range.

Buckle up. The FFD airlines are going to suffer.

AA WO pilots can still apply to all other majors :rolleyes:

Also has a higher change to getting on AA as with both the flow and OTS.....

but we about to hear the flow haters yell but FLOW.....

How many will be flowing the rest of this year?


:confused:


:rolleyes:

the same amount that are getting hired at any other legacy.

To the original poster from two weeks ago... accept all offers and hope that at least one of them might be able to follow through and be in business long enough to give you a job one day.

People always warn us about “black swan events” and this past week has really emphasized that

For all of the FO's that I have flown with at the regionals over the last several years who refused to upgrade, or even worse were dropping trips so they wouldn't have to get forced to upgrade...this is exactly what all of the older guys were warning you about. Having that TPIC is gold right now. Several more regionals will go under, and when you are fighting for any available job, having that TPIC is the difference.

Get into the seat that you want as fast as you can. Period.

Music isn’t only stopped- the players are gone, and the record player is destroyed. This will set the industry back a decade or more. Delta has already stated it will come back as a smaller airline, I suspect more will follow.

yep. This incident has taken care of the retirement “problem” at the majors. Hope everyone is happy in their current seat because they are going to be there for a while.

Agreed.. TSA & CPZ were the first dominoes.. I'm convinced more furloughs are coming but I hope not, I just don't see how it doesn't happen. In compass's case, a stiff wind would have blown us over, and nobody was surprised when this thing started to blow up.

Where do you guys come up with this stuff lol. American is retiring almost 2/3rds of the airline. You think AA will be 10,000 pilots smaller at the end of this?

well my first seniority number at AA was about 4100. About a third of those were flight engineers. LOL if you want but I think
the AA of the future will be much smaller as will the other big 3. Under five digits IMO once the virus is not a threat.

the 50-70% capacity cuts we are seeing take care of the retirement bubble. They chopped capacity in a week, you think they are going to restore it that quickly?

This is a time for the airlines to re-boot and fix parts of the business that they didn't like. This includes route and structure. If there are markets that they did not really want to be in, then this will be their chance to get out of those markets. If they felt that they were too big, they can downsize as appropriate.

Until we start seeing light on the other end of this tunnel, we will not have any idea what the other side will look like. As of now, it appears that it is a long tunnel, and we just entered it. Expect this to last at least another year.

Thousands of businesses are going to close and hundreds of thousands will be unemployed. I really didn't think that this was going to last more than a few weeks when it started, but here we are. A global recession that is doing far more damage than the actual virus. Expect summer 2022 to look good, but not before.

The ULCC’s have the most to lose. They cater to the under 50k a year work force- Millons are going weeks if not months without pay. Very few of these individuals will be whipping out their maxed out CC to catch a flight any time soon

Ouch

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Everybody rags on spirit so much lol.. Maybe people with maxed out CCs won't be flying but those with half full CCs will. After this is all over, they will still have a customer base who will fly. Might even be a bigger customer base because of all this

I tend to agree with this perspective

I am a big Spirit fan and it will be interesting to see if their business model holds up. After all, it was designed for just such an event, economy wise that is.

So before all this stuff has happened, flight loads were nearly always full on the big three. How are they going to cut flying and come back smaller when the demand was there? Sounds like they are capitulating to the low cost carriers.

The demand isn't going to be there for years. Once it is there, the legacies will charge top dollar for the limited seats that are available while they recover and slowly grow. That leaves the door open for the LCCs to cater to everyone else in the meantime.

It wasn't until recent history that the legacies started to price match the LCCs. Basic Economy is a relatively new product.

This isn’t a black swan event, that gives our elected officials too much credit. This is a black rhino event, an elephant in the room no one wanted to address. epidemiologists have been predicting this for years. Explained on Netflix did an episode over a year ago where they said two major things- the next pandemic would likely be a zoonotic virus that originates in a wet market, and that the economic fallout would be worse than the virus itself. We got extremely lucky with SARS and it was only a matter of time before our luck ran out.