The Legacies aren't the only airlines that will get new ccontracts

It’s interesting to me that someone suggested a legacy job would be more secure than a LCC job.

When the economy tanks people will cut back on international flights and extra leg room.

I’d think in a downturn a LCC would still be able to retain their customers and steal customers from legacies. Legacies would feel the pain more due to higher fixed costs.

Soon as in 5 years or so. Aka 1/3 of the way through the OPs. And the U/LCC will get one shorty (another 2 years or so) after.

The $ increases 10 years down the line won’t be bing enough to make up for the jump in pay for the first 5 years by going to the LCC now in a 15 year time horizon.

IF you make the assumption that NK will grow regardless of outside factors such as the economy... they are a young pilot group and will not have the kind of retirements that the big three will enjoy.

AA has some warts but IF their geography works you (ie live in a hub) you could enjoy essentially guaranteed seniority progression, and therefore pay and/or QOL progression.

The economy will generally affect all airlines. But the retirements don't lie, worst case is that the music stops for two years if they go to 67 (but then you can still make it up on the back end).

NK is a pretty safe bet if the economy stays good long enough to get you the growth you need for upgrade. Only you can read your personal crystal ball on that.

The LCC customer base would probably feel more economic pain in a downturn. Could LCCs steal customers from legacies? I don't know.

I wouldn't expect any particular sector in the airline industry to enjoy a windfall in a downturn, although the regionals kind of did once.