Read the major airline threads...
 

I know, I know, you are worried about what is going on at your own regional and what it means to you, but most people aren’t doing a lot of flying right now and you will never get a better opportunity to see business models under stress than you do right now.

From a regional perspective it may be easy to say, especially today, “H€|| I’ll gladly go to the first major that calls and then use THAT major as a stepping stone to where I REALLY want to go, but that begs the question of where you do REALLY want to go and realize after a few years seniority is going to pretty well lock you in to where you sit if you sit there very long.

And airlines DO go extinct, even MAJOR airlines. Even airlines that were once THE place to be. History Is littered with big names that were once highly desirable but nonetheless went under. PanAm, TWA, Braniff, to name only a few. And the senior guys at those airlines, after a decade or two of building seniority, often got to start over somewhere else AT THE BOTTOM.

So just a bit of advice, watch what is going on on the major threads. The cheapest experience you can get is watching what is happening to someone else.

Sorry.......

Do you have any idea how bad working conditions are at the best regional compared to the worst major? Unless you’re in the last 10 years of your career it always makes sense to move on.

I can honestly say the very best day ever at the regional was still worse that the very worst day I have ever had where I am now.... and I'm just at a decent ACMI and love what I do now.

Jeez, talk about being detached from reality.

Not sure if the point of this, not many people leave one major to go to another.

I think at my carrier we had 20 people leave last year for other carriers. That’s less than 1% of the pilot group. At this point I’m sure most of them (except for the ones who went to UPS and FedEx) are regretting it.

Never said different. What I said was learn from what is going on to help you decide what your ultimate destination is going to be. Do you have an issue with that?

Live below your means and invest all of your spare money into cash-flowing assets so that it eventfully outgrows your flying income. Then if your airline goes under (or you lose your medical) you'll have another source of income to fall back on.

Yes.

Most regional pilots are not afforded a choice of destinations. If you get a call at all, you hit the lottery and go.

I flew with quite a few pilots at my regional (people with 20-35 years left) who only had 1 airline they wanted to work for, Apps were not out anywhere else. I think his point is use this time to see what your “dream airline” is like in bad times, which is honestly great advice.

signed,
someone who recently left a regional.

“From a regional perspective it may be easy to say, especially today, “H€|| I’ll gladly go to the first major that calls and then use THAT major as a stepping stone to where I REALLY want to go, but that begs the question of where you do REALLY want to go and realize after a few years seniority is going to pretty well lock you in to where you sit if you sit there very long”

Implies to not go to the first one that calls. Turning down any mainline offer and hanging out at a regional hoping Cinderella calls is a bad idea. Nothing wrong with positioning yourself and trying harder for the one you like best, but I think you vastly over-estimate the amount of choice the average regional pilot has in who calls first.

I think you misread the intention. It means what I said, no more and no less. It does not instruct anyone to turn down any offer. But as noted above, junior people in their first couple years at a major ONCE THEY’VE MADE IT THERE frequently have offers from other majors. They are in fact fairly mobile at that point, up until they have accrued enough seniority to be invested in that particular airline.

My intention was to suggest that people pay attention - now that various business models are under stress - to see what happens with the various majors. Because, yeah, a lot of guys at the legacies are probably now wishing they’d taken that offer from SWA right now

I feel like Excargodog’s point is, and correct me if I’m wrong, that some people only get infatuated with one place?

Kind of like someone being crazy over some ex that cheated on them when there are so many others out there. I feel many of the people I flew with in the regionals wanted to move on, but there were quite a few at mine who definitely weren’t moving as well. They had offers at other places but were comfortable with their QOL. Their choice, but boy they’re on the streets now... yikes.

With all that said... for most people, in the long run/grand scheme, it's better to be furloughed from a major than employed by a regional. Obvious exceptions for those over 50, GED and no other skills, stay-at-home spouse w/kids, etc.

It's hard enough as it is to move up, without trying to guesstimate if the economy/industry will hold up for 3-4 years after your class date.

I frankly wouldn't trade my somewhat junior number for the job security of my old regional gig.

Trust me..... If you're afraid of failure, you'll never succeed.

I clearly did not communicate what I intended to communicate. I never intended to communicate that one should turn down an offer from a major - any major - to continue on at a regional. There MAY be cases where that would be appropriate, a few very senior pilots with not that many years before they turn 65 or some social or economic reason compelling them to stay at their regional domicile, but economically such a course of action would make no sense for the vast majority. And while COVID is hammering a lot of people’s career prospects currently, this too will pass. Even the Spanish Flu burnt itself out in two years. And the COVID caused disruption has discouraged a lot of people From going in to the career field so I truly expect the pilot shortage to be back even if the economic effects of the COVID lockdowns delay it five years.

What I WAS advocating was that regional pilots educate themselves about what is going on at different majors because, yes, there IS a narrow window of flexibility for the first couple years at a major when junior people DO change employers (I know several former VX acquaintances who bailed from Alaska after they were acquired and other junior FOs who bailed to freight or to/from SWA. It really does happen. And I believe many if not most of the younger regional people ARE going to get an offer to a major once we are fully recovered, be that in two years or ten and - yeah, they are going to take it, because fir the vast majority any major will be better than any regional.

But at that time they will have all the things on their resume that let them get that job to begin with and then immediately add a new type-rating and major experience. And when that happens they will have the narrow window of opportunity - a few years at most - before seniority locks them in to the airline they are at for a career, or at least for as long as that airline exists.
But the world is changing and some business models are adapting better than others.

Don’t get emotionally locked in to yesterday’s winner when the paradigm shifts. Watch what is happening today.

How specifically are regionals worse than majors other than a much smaller paycheck of course?

Depends on the regional I suppose. Envoy, well this could be a long list but I will just start with a few.

1. Significantly better pay.
2. Significantly better qol
3. Significantly better schedules
4. Significantly less hostility from management
5. Significantly better union in terms of being able to actually defend their pilots. Our current MEC is doing a fine job, but we only have so much power at the end of the day.
6. Better jump seat privileges on the routes that actually matter.
7. Duty Rigs
8. Min Day Guarantee
9. Better per diem
10. Meals

I could go on. Its not worth it though. Mainline is far and away the better option.

When was the last time a major airline ceased operations and put seniority #1 on the street? How many regionals have shut down since that time

Yes, that was definitely a dilemma for many middle/bottom-tier major pilots (and even a few top-tier hires)... whether to keep reaching for the next rung or settle in for the long haul.

No one-size-fits-all answer, but I would say that almost any major pax job is pretty good gig so unless you're very young it's an iffy proposition to risk it all for something somewhat better.

Some majors honored new-hire classes for a month or so after covid (to protect those who had already resigned from previous gigs), while at the same they did NOT allow some of their own pilots to rescind resignations which had been dropped immediately after covid. There were some major (even some legacy) pilots who went from several years (or more) seniority to on the street with their top-tier class dates cancelled (and pools quickly flushed in some cases). The lucky ones: FDX/UPS new-hires.

Every move in this industry carries risk... training failures, background check issues, and of course straight-up bad timing due to black swans like covid and 9/11. Avoiding unnecessary lateral/diagonal moves will probably enhance your overall career stability, at some point it's just career risk vs. greed.

Probably the same reason why all the major airline pilots tell their kids to never be pilots. Anywhere there is a union, there is this type of uncertain environment. If you need a union to protect yourself, it’s probably an industry that is going away eventually. Wait until the cars have full autopilot like tesla is claiming. Going to see a lot less people taking planes and just sleeping in their cars as they autopilot them 500miles. Automation is going to reduce pilots down to one with a “super dispatcher.” The end is coming in the next 20 years. Drones are already being shot off the boat to tank.

121 Pilots are married to their company and have no job mobility. Majors sell their own tickets, while regionals are cost saving subcontractors. Which do you think is more stable?

Depends how you measure it. Few regionals have disappeared this year, so I’d say majors. Well I don’t want to speak too soon, because maybe one of the majors will tank this year.

on a side note, can we bring pretzels back to the regionals? I get hungry on my flights 😭 and making 68 credits at $36 doesn’t leave me with much money for food after rent, insurance and gas money. Oh, Mesa is pinching me hard.

Really? It seems that every other guy I fly with has a parent or uncle who’s an airline pilot and the reason why they chose to fly. Maybe you’re thinking back after 9/11 and through the Great Recession after huge concessions, but things are a lot better nowadays, even with COVID.

I’ll happily plug a drone. Ride in one? That’s another story...

You don't understand the technical and economic hurdles associated automating airliners. It can be done, but not safely or economically. Then you have politics and public perception, it's a lot further off than most people think. Plus add 20 years on top of all that for the natural life-span of the jets.

Very true, but everyone forgets the middle step. Everything coming down to single pilot ops first. Don’t worry about full drone capability being pushed, it’s incremental and especially with public perception involved as you’ve all witnessed these past several months. Long haul 4 pilots down to 2, 2 down to one... Although delayed due to COVID19, next airliners were already designed to drop a seat up front. Bought some time, but it’s coming.

As far as a perfect choice destination airline, not possible until you have retired and look back to see if it met your needs, expectations and so called dreams whatever they may be. Nothing is under your control, you make the best guess and your lucky at best on your choice of airline that takes you to the finish line. Every choice if you were able to make is a best guess and really has nothing to do with you totally. Just a very lucky or fortunate person makes it through decades without a hitch or in this case unforeseen catastrophic impacts.

Mentioned before by several: “Lucky to be hired by FedEx or UPS”. It’s all cyclic and economy dependent. People weren’t even going to FedEx, UPS or Southwest a year ago when called by the others at times. People entering this past decade never really understood that it’s been along time if not the first many pilots had the opportunity to choose where they wanted to live and then the airline vs airline first, then just commute to name one huge difference. It’s back to whoever calls first once again. Now some high seniority folks are headed back into the coal mines they thought they had left years ago. It’s tough out there. Job loss as well, super tough.

Lol single pilot is a fatigue disaster just waiting to happen. Plus it would literally be throwing in the dumpster decades of proven effective CRM training that consistently prevents screw ups.

Plus it would literally cost billions upon billions to implement, and at the first indication that there's a screw up lack of public faith will tank the program.

Most jets still have crt screens instead of led, even though the led's are so much lighter and take so much less effort to cool. The reason is because to manufacturers and buyers it's not worth the money to retrofit them.

The biggest shake up I see is that it seems that the LCC's have a much more stable market with not really relying on business travelers in the first place. People want cheap tickets, so the airline that can profit off cheap tickets will be king.

Are you arguing the regionals are more stable? Pretty sure 3 regionals have bit the dust within the last 5 months.

Little problem there: pilot incapacitation. That does happen, 5-6 times each year in the US alone.

While you might be able to massage the numbers and make the entire SYSTEM achieve something approximating equivalent safety even with some incap events, what you can't overcome is the perception hurdle because there will be several flights each year which operate at far less than normal airline safety. Regulators and politicians will not be in love with that idea. It's going to be harder than it sounds.

The sectors of aviation which routinely operate single-pilot achieve safety levels which have a lot more in common with recreational motor-cycle riding than with 121 ops.

Again, it's not happening as soon as you think.

Still lucky. Any top-tier (even mid-tier) job affords you the opportunity to either retire rich (by middle-America standards) or GTFO while young if that's what you want. If you work for 15-20 years and are focused on saving you can build a pretty big war chest, and then bang out out and do something else if desired. It's a rare opportunity in historical context, which some younger folks don't fully appreciate.

Even better if you enjoy flying.

misread post, disregard.

Even folks here on APC who were interested in leaving FX for the pax carriers back in the winter:

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/f...ping-ship.html

"The majority of my buddies fly for the UAL/Delta/AA/SWA and truly think I’m nuts staying on board FedEx’s sinking ship."

I think Andreas Lubitz showed us single-pilot ops aren’t a good idea.

Reduced cockpit staffing is an enormous money saver. How soon? Hard to say. Will every big spender in aviation push for it? Absolutely. Look how hard every contract is fought. Look how hard Boeing pushed to reduce pilot costs on the max

How hard did they push since the MAX has pretty much the same overhead panel as the 737 Classic?

That’s exactly how they pushed. They’d rather retrofit the rest of the airplane to accommodate the 1950’s flight deck than have airlines possibly have to pay for differences training.

https://i.ibb.co/LYwRcDN/96068-D94-1...DEB1-AC2-B.jpg


My read is that they got caught with their pants down by the NEO and needed to quickly put lipstick on a 53 year old pig. They needed a clean sheet design, or better yet, the start of a type-family which Boeing sort of pioneered with the 757/767 42 years ago then dropped with follow on aircraft.

Who's fault is that? Why haven't the three major pilot unions haven't created a single DOH list that is fenced to protect anybody currently on a property from displacement due to a company transfer/change, but puts everybody after that fixed industry date by DOH on the industry combined list.

Take health and insurance benefits away from the companies and provided through the union, just have the company remit their share to the union program. Now, when you change jobs, all that changes is where the check comes form. Heck, even move the 401k's to be union managed... now you don't need to roll over or anything else.

Lots of things the unions "should" do but never will since they are big business just like the Airlines and big business always takes care of their own first.... they are all sloths guilty of greed.... more for them, none for you. My favorite sins....

No disagreement there, but I also read a lot of effort was put into to the design to keep the feds from requiring differences training. I think it was southwest that had some sort of clause about it in their purchase agreement.

no, the airline would rather do that. Boeing just says “how high” That’s how hard airlines push labor costs.