Possible signs of improving job market?
 

Possible sign of improving job market coming sooner than expected?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/pilot-shortage-prompts-rare-flight-cancellations-at-delta-over-thanksgiving-break.html"Delta Air Lines canceled hundreds of flights over the Thanksgiving break as it struggled with staffing shortages during the busiest travel week since the coronavirus pandemic began.

While demand remains less than half of last year’s levels because of the pandemic, Transportation Security Administration airport screenings rose above 1 million on Sunday and Wednesday, the highest in more than eight months.

On Thursday, Delta canceled about 300 flights, roughly 20% of its schedule and around 160 flights on Friday, around 9% of the schedule.

No

Poor staffing/planning for that week, maybe.

Pilot shortage? No

Have to agree, a pilot shortage isn’t something we will see for a long time. This was just bad planning as stated above.

Probably. In the old days if you maybe had a little sniffle coming on you'd be reluctant to call in sick over a holiday. Today nobody feels any guilt. Hungover? *Might* actually be a touch of covid, better bang out. Makes what used to be a hard decision very easy.

Sick leave usage is below the historical norm. The company put out a letter over a month ago stating they would be short over the holidays. Huge surplus of pilots currently but between the early retirement program, fleet simplification and furlough prep they have thousands of pilots in the wrong seats.

"Pilot shortage." :rolleyes:

There was enough of a downward pressure on hiring minimums that would have likely resulted in near-historically short spans of time for a significant number of pilots going from a regional job to a major carrier had COVID or another 'black swan' event not occurred. We saw glimpses of this leading up to March 2020 / pre-COVID; everyone was hiring. All that momentum is now lost.

The industry will recover, but I'm afraid there may be more hurt along the way before things truly stabilize. Despite some touting record stock market highs and conflating it with an economic recovery, the stock market is not the economy. Business closures and jobless claims are still alarmingly high. Predicting the future is tough, but if I were to make an educated guess, we're not going to see the same time of boom in hiring we saw in 2016-2019 for "awhile" (5-10 years, maybe longer) and recovery will be fragmented depending on the health of various market segments.

The good news is that there will always be opportunity, however, it will be highly competitive; it's all about positioning one's self to capitalize on opportunities as they present themselves. Positioning = job credentials, networking, and timing. What's the statement about luck? “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" or something like that.

Unless you’re 10 years or less from retirement, this is just a speed bump in your career. There will be hiring sometime in 2021 and back to normal pilot shortage soon after. There’s no question the industry will recover, the only question is when.

if it takes 10 years and involves bankruptcies by all the majors that’s not going to just be a speedbump

The stock market is forward looking. People investing are looking ahead, in 3 - 30 months, where the economy will be.

Leading, not co-current with sales. Unemployment rates are lagging. Companies do not hire until sales pick up and the cannot cover with OT. It always has been this way, is today, and always will be into the future.

That is not me predicting it. It is what my large, successful investment manager (and similar investment managers) have said for years. They have shown the data that demonstrates it as fact.

There has never been a pilot shortage, and never will be particularly at the majors. Pilots were coming out of the woodwork for bonuses. Let’s hope we never see those again - they need to be rolled into pay rates.

Pilot shortage?? There are 1700+ UNA Delta pilots that would argue otherwise...

Not pilot shortage, just a really big screw up on behalf of Delta's management.

Joe biden went down to georgia. He was looking for an election to steal. He was in a bind, he was way behind, looking to make a deal....
Done !

I do not believe the economy is as stable as it seems or as great as some say it is. An engine always runs best right before it fails.
Silver is good.

The recovery is proving to be more V like; but the question is how long does that engine keep running? The pilot shortage will be right back front and center by winter 2021 in my opinion if all else remains unchanged and as projected.

But even I wouldn’t make any big deals based upon that alone.

I'm starting to trust you. What does that mean?!?

Thank you, Satan.

The economy is being incredibly propped up at the moment. All it will take is a small amount of instability and things will start a downward spiral pretty quick.

I think the markets will hit new highs with another round of stimulus by next summer. But if we see a problem with these vaccines, a problem with supply, a problem with distribution... Things will spiral quickly. Our economy is teetering on the edge and the middle class/small business owners have been decimated. That takes years to come back, if ever.

Supply and distribution will be fine, it's not rocket science. Somehow we do it for the flu every year without getting our panties in a wad.

Where we *might possibly* have problems is if the vaccines themselves have either performance or safety issues over time, just have to wait and see on that. Data so far looks unusually good in both respects. mRNA vaccine technology was being developed because they had hoped all along that it WOULD be better than some of the established tech... this just gave them an opportunity to prove it.

Even vaccine failure risk is mitigated by multiple vaccine technologies in the works... seems like good odds that at least one of those will work.

The vaccine doesn't even have to work particularly well to turn things around

If we get hospital workers vaccinated, it's much easier to staff hospitals
If we get teachers vaccinated, it's much easier to run schools
If only rich people have access ... they can start travelling again

If all the vaccine does is just actually turn covid into a bad flu season ... then we have won the battle.

I couldn’t help but chuckle at this one. Was it an intended jab? If not, it should have been.

Covid isn't even a particularly bad flu season so that's a pretty low bar

280,000 people, including a dead friend from high school, would probably disagree with you.

I personally agree with strata pilot.

But whether you think Covid is perception or reality, it is currently the problem. A vaccine that works or is perceived to work will fix the problem.

about 4 times as many that die from a bad flu season.... except the flu season doesn’t run all year. It’s pretty much the same target audience too. The reality of it is it’s right around twice a bad as a bad flu.

Once again there is more to it then just getting sick or passing away from it. The Flu doesn’t have any of the longer lasting complications nor does it rarely cause permanent damage, which for more and more people is a real thing with COVID.

I will spare everyone the long list of things that people continue to suffer with but let’s just say it isn’t a get sick, survive and done.

Does anyone honestly believe that after 70+ years of research and development that we have a 40% effective flu shot, but in 10 months a 95% effective Rona shot?

Yes, technology is amazing. In fact, given the amount of research I’ve done I would rather have a new MRNA vaccine over previous methods.

Does anyone honestly believe that influenza and coronaviruses are equivalent? And that their respective vaccines are developed in the same way?

Yes. Apples to oranges in terms of mutation rate.

Actually, for the very vast majority, it is get sick, get better, survive and done. I'm one of them.

some patients report lingering symptoms for a few weeks or even months after "recovering." They're called "long haulers."
The stuff you are referencing is from acute cases.... those who ended up in the ICU on ventilators. Guess what, those people often have lingering effects regardless of the injury or illness that put them there. The lungs, heart and kidneys are the most common injured organs from acute covid. Most trips to the ICU leave some lasting effect, everything from brain injuries to mobility impairments. long lasting effects is not new, just a different set of effects from a covid cause.

I've had it. It sux. It was basically just a bad cold, the difference being for a day or two in the middle you could really feel it in your chest. At it's worst you'd get winded just walking from one end of the house to the other. O2 levels dropped from 99% to 93% over 4 days then began to climb back up.

airline pilot and vaccine development scientist? How do you find the time?

You just demonstrated some extreme ignorance. Apples to pomegranites comparison, the only less-informed comparison I've seen is covid vs. HIV.

1) "The flu" is actually a family of similar viruses, not one single bug.

2) The "flu shot" is actually a cocktail of 3-4 different vaccines, which are selected twice each year based on which (of many available) strains of flu they guesstimate are *most* likely to be *most* prevalent in the coming season. It is never intended, nor would it ever be able, to prevent all flu. It's intended to reduce the impact on society, and improve your individual odds. The bonus is that if you get the shot annually, it improves your odds against strains which are not included in the current shot, because you have some immunity left for strains from years past, which may still circle around.

3) The flu mutates rapidly in a fast cycle which occurs in a unique "reservoir animal" ecosystem of pigs, domestic birds, and peasants in Asia. By bouncing back and forth between species (with vast numbers of animal hosts), it's afforded a tremendous opportunity to mutate. After which it it jumps to people and makes it's way around the world.

4) Many flu strains have been circulating for years, and they have vaccines on the shelf for those. When a new robust mutation pops up, they have to make a NEW vaccine within months to get it into the next cycle's flu shot cocktail. They actually have that down to a science.

Covid has not shown any indication of getting into domestic livestock in a manner such that it can readily jump back and forth between livestock and humans. Once covid is beaten back into a dark corner it will have vastly reduced mutation opportunities.

A covid vaccine is a lot more straight-forward.

That’s exactly what the point of my post was. Asking the other poster if he thinks they are the same because they obviously are not.

I’m very aware that influenza and COVID are totally different viruses that coronaviruses mutate much slower making vaccine development easier. The reason previous coronaviruses did not have a vaccine developed was because these viruses either disappeared like SARS or were so mild (like the coronaviruses that cause many colds) that vaccine development had no financial incentive.

As for COVID in livestock, Mink farms are the only source of large outbreaks I am familiar with.

Ditto to what Rick said. Spot on.

Sorry, quoted the wrong post but I'll fix that.

Minks are fine, so are most other wild animals and livestock, which can be maintained at arms length from humans and can be culled if needed (as opposed to sleeping in their huts with them). What you don't want is a large livestock reservoir pool which cannot be mostly isolated from people. That would probably be animals which are inextricably embedded in society in developing parts of the world.

Drifting, drifting...gone.

You're absolutely right, let's get this thread back on track.

Miatas are not sports cars. Discuss.

https://i.imgur.com/FaO8Zw9.png

Is that you on the right or left?

You tell me, your husband gave me the picture.:D

Wisdom my young friend, wisdom.

With age often come with wisdom. They are more inclined to not follow you.

Having said that, even broken clocks are right twice a day.