Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 3199839)

Covid was a Grey Rhino, not a Black Swan. Scientists have been screaming about the economic and health dangers of a novel zoonotic disease for years, mostly to deaf ears and heads stuck firmly in the sand.

In fact, a Netflix series, “Explained”, postulated about the impacts of a zoonotic disease originating in a wet market in China in November 2019.....

Season 2 episode 7 if you want a great watch.


it’s a small distinction, but black swan implies this was something we couldn’t see coming. Grey rhino describes something we saw coming and chose to ignore.

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3199851)

There's kind of a fuzzy transition between Grey Rhino and Black Swan, and covid was probably right in the middle of that.

Obvious, likely, and realistic timeline play into that. We know there will be 500 year floods and earthquakes, but our building codes are typically for 100 year events despite the fact that there's a 20% chance of a 500-year event this century.

Politicians typically pay minimal lip service to those kinds of hypothetical threats because there's little political appetite in most places to spend money on responsible long-term considerations when you can be doling out social largess to various voting blocks. And they can usually play the odds that it won't happen on their watch. You'd almost need a benign dictatorship to adequately prepare for ALL eventualities... that's not going to be a popular fiscal platform.

Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 3199859)

Pandemics are a hundred year event. Likely less than that now with habitat loss and affordable air travel to even the most exotic of locales.

The problem is that pandemic prep isn’t flashy and doesn’t funnel money to the right defense contractors....

Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 3199859)

Pandemics are a hundred year event. Likely less than that now with habitat loss and affordable air travel to even the most exotic of locales.

Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 3199859)

The problem is that pandemic prep isn’t flashy and doesn’t funnel money to the right defense contractors....

Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3199599)

COVID was truly a black swan, but it is what it is. Resumption of international flying depends on the lowest common denominators and some countries will be a couple of years getting people immunized. And I don’t think IATA is wrong when they think it’s going to be 2023 or 2024 before we see international flying where it was in 2019. And if these countries aren’t going to let their airlines do international flying, they aren’t going to let ours do it either. Likewise, business flying is in the crapper for awhile, and may be a long time returning to 2019 levels.

Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.

But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.

Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.

Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.

Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.

Originally Posted by THKooj (Post 3199927)

Definitely disagree about the legacies. Well, more specifically, American. The leadership at AA has been positioning themselves all of 2020 to come out on the other side of this going gangbusters. I sure don't see United or Delta planning for the other side in aggressive fashion. Take a look at all the new domestic adds AA has already done and that's just the tip of the iceberg. AA is going to be fine thank you. They will far outperform Delta or United and as far as AA against some little LCCs? Puhlease. Bring your army of dachshunds to go up against an 800 lb gorilla? Seriously?

Originally Posted by Escargot (Post 3199932)

Envoy recruiter? You forgot to talk about the flow. We need to hear more about FLOW!

Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3199599)

COVID was truly a black swan, but it is what it is. Resumption of international flying depends on the lowest common denominators and some countries will be a couple of years getting people immunized. And I don’t think IATA is wrong when they think it’s going to be 2023 or 2024 before we see international flying where it was in 2019. And if these countries aren’t going to let their airlines do international flying, they aren’t going to let ours do it either. Likewise, business flying is in the crapper for awhile, and may be a long time returning to 2019 levels.

Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.

But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.

Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.

Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.

Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.

Originally Posted by FlyGuy2021 (Post 3199616)

That was a lot of words with no meat to back them up.

All of the legacy carriers will start hiring by the end of the year. Expect more than 6000 legacy spots to be filled in the next 3 years or less.

Originally Posted by Escargot (Post 3199932)

Envoy recruiter? You forgot to talk about the flow. We need to hear more about FLOW!