Excargodog

COVID was truly a black swan, but it is what it is. Resumption of international flying depends on the lowest common denominators and some countries will be a couple of years getting people immunized. And I don’t think IATA is wrong when they think it’s going to be 2023 or 2024 before we see international flying where it was in 2019. And if these countries aren’t going to let their airlines do international flying, they aren’t going to let ours do it either. Likewise, business flying is in the crapper for awhile, and may be a long time returning to 2019 levels.

Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.

But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.

Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.

Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.

Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.

Gone Flying

I think there is a good chance DL will hire before summer 2022. They had 14,700 pilots in April 2020 and that was not going to be enough had COVID not happened, as it stands right now they will have 12,000 pilots in summer ‘22 and be down to 10,600 pilots for 2025. If flying will be back to normal by 2025 and DL wants to be the size they were pre COVID, they will have to hire 4,000 pilots between now and then. unless they plan on ceding lots of market share they will be hiring sooner rather than later.

They retired the 777s and lots of senior pilots on WBs so the planes and pilots they have left appear to have some flying to do.

Time will tell but I think by 2 years from now At least 2 of the big 3 will have started hiring again.

FlyGuy2021

That was a lot of words with no meat to back them up.

All of the legacy carriers will start hiring by the end of the year. Expect more than 6000 legacy spots to be filled in the next 3 years or less.

Excargodog

That was a few words with even less meat to back them up, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion.

flyinthrew

I had a well thought out, long reply typed but the Internet ate it.

So basically, you’re absolutely correct about the single type and U/LCCs being in the best position right now.

The legacies are at a low, slack tide on hiring right now but the tide is about to start coming in. Remember that two of the three cut a huge percentage off the tops of their lists with voluntary retirements so there aren’t that many senior people sitting around idle. Also, they WILL defend their domestic networks, and can’t downgauge any more due to scope.

Rumors at DAL of new hires before year’s end and another 1500 on property next year are at a loud roar. I don’t personally believe that at the moment, but what the legacies do after stimmy 3.0 will be highly telling. If the big 3 hire even close to that on top of all of the LCC and cargo hiring that we know about, then regional manning will be burned to the ground by the end of the year next year.

Cyio

Assuming all that is true, regional flow rates will grind to a halt as the majors are not going to kill their regional feeds.

Either more flying will be done at the regional level, which is a horrid thought, or they will get pilots from someplace else. Neither option a good one. I’m not sure how many pilots are in the pipeline across the board but it seems flight schools are barely able to stay open right now.

It will be interesting times for sure.

flyinthrew

Regional flying can’t grow if the wide bodies don’t come back due to top end scope constraints. There are already planes flying around with 70 seats instead of 76. AAG’s flow is contractual I think and they can’t not flow people if AA hires. Majors had no qualms emptying the regionals before the pandemic.

Cyio

It’s contractual yes, however it can drop so low to hardly matter. Prior to the pandemic we had flight schools churning out willing and able candidates, something I don’t think is true atm. I admit I could be wrong regarding the flight schools, but I have a feeling I’m not.

I agree with you, I think things will recover. How quickly and to what extent that helps our regional pilots is something I can’t put a finger on.

DarkSideMoon

Covid was a Grey Rhino, not a Black Swan. Scientists have been screaming about the economic and health dangers of a novel zoonotic disease for years, mostly to deaf ears and heads stuck firmly in the sand.

In fact, a Netflix series, “Explained”, postulated about the impacts of a zoonotic disease originating in a wet market in China in November 2019.....

Season 2 episode 7 if you want a great watch.


it’s a small distinction, but black swan implies this was something we couldn’t see coming. Grey rhino describes something we saw coming and chose to ignore.

flyinthrew

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