Major Hiring - how will it play out?
#11
Covid was a Grey Rhino, not a Black Swan. Scientists have been screaming about the economic and health dangers of a novel zoonotic disease for years, mostly to deaf ears and heads stuck firmly in the sand.
In fact, a Netflix series, “Explained”, postulated about the impacts of a zoonotic disease originating in a wet market in China in November 2019.....
Season 2 episode 7 if you want a great watch.
it’s a small distinction, but black swan implies this was something we couldn’t see coming. Grey rhino describes something we saw coming and chose to ignore.
In fact, a Netflix series, “Explained”, postulated about the impacts of a zoonotic disease originating in a wet market in China in November 2019.....
Season 2 episode 7 if you want a great watch.
it’s a small distinction, but black swan implies this was something we couldn’t see coming. Grey rhino describes something we saw coming and chose to ignore.
Obvious, likely, and realistic timeline play into that. We know there will be 500 year floods and earthquakes, but our building codes are typically for 100 year events despite the fact that there's a 20% chance of a 500-year event this century.
Politicians typically pay minimal lip service to those kinds of hypothetical threats because there's little political appetite in most places to spend money on responsible long-term considerations when you can be doling out social largess to various voting blocks. And they can usually play the odds that it won't happen on their watch. You'd almost need a benign dictatorship to adequately prepare for ALL eventualities... that's not going to be a popular fiscal platform.
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 1,948
There's kind of a fuzzy transition between Grey Rhino and Black Swan, and covid was probably right in the middle of that.
Obvious, likely, and realistic timeline play into that. We know there will be 500 year floods and earthquakes, but our building codes are typically for 100 year events despite the fact that there's a 20% chance of a 500-year event this century.
Politicians typically pay minimal lip service to those kinds of hypothetical threats because there's little political appetite in most places to spend money on responsible long-term considerations when you can be doling out social largess to various voting blocks. And they can usually play the odds that it won't happen on their watch. You'd almost need a benign dictatorship to adequately prepare for ALL eventualities... that's not going to be a popular fiscal platform.
Obvious, likely, and realistic timeline play into that. We know there will be 500 year floods and earthquakes, but our building codes are typically for 100 year events despite the fact that there's a 20% chance of a 500-year event this century.
Politicians typically pay minimal lip service to those kinds of hypothetical threats because there's little political appetite in most places to spend money on responsible long-term considerations when you can be doling out social largess to various voting blocks. And they can usually play the odds that it won't happen on their watch. You'd almost need a benign dictatorship to adequately prepare for ALL eventualities... that's not going to be a popular fiscal platform.
The problem is that pandemic prep isn’t flashy and doesn’t funnel money to the right defense contractors....
#13
https://www.worldometers.info/
But ask the surviving dinosaurs about a real extinction event - except of course you can’t.
That may be a true black swan but it’s at least one we could hedge against.
Now getting back to major airline hiring....
#14
This is a new class of pandemic, enabled by as you say global air travel. No real correlation with previous pandemics, so you can't call it predictable based on past history. It was predicted by science, but of course nobody knew for sure how accurately or what timeline.
Defense contractors employ a lot of voters.
#15
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 270
COVID was truly a black swan, but it is what it is. Resumption of international flying depends on the lowest common denominators and some countries will be a couple of years getting people immunized. And I don’t think IATA is wrong when they think it’s going to be 2023 or 2024 before we see international flying where it was in 2019. And if these countries aren’t going to let their airlines do international flying, they aren’t going to let ours do it either. Likewise, business flying is in the crapper for awhile, and may be a long time returning to 2019 levels.
Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.
But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.
Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.
Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.
Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.
Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.
But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.
Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.
Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.
Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 241
Definitely disagree about the legacies. Well, more specifically, American. The leadership at AA has been positioning themselves all of 2020 to come out on the other side of this going gangbusters. I sure don't see United or Delta planning for the other side in aggressive fashion. Take a look at all the new domestic adds AA has already done and that's just the tip of the iceberg. AA is going to be fine thank you. They will far outperform Delta or United and as far as AA against some little LCCs? Puhlease. Bring your army of dachshunds to go up against an 800 lb gorilla? Seriously?
#17
Don’t encourage the troll. You will distract him from his Vietnam era combat boot wearing. If I had his mailing address I’d send him a bunch of punji stakes soaked in sewage to allow him to fully savor his realistic military reenactment experience.
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 710
COVID was truly a black swan, but it is what it is. Resumption of international flying depends on the lowest common denominators and some countries will be a couple of years getting people immunized. And I don’t think IATA is wrong when they think it’s going to be 2023 or 2024 before we see international flying where it was in 2019. And if these countries aren’t going to let their airlines do international flying, they aren’t going to let ours do it either. Likewise, business flying is in the crapper for awhile, and may be a long time returning to 2019 levels.
Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.
But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.
Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.
Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.
Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.
Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.
But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.
Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.
Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.
Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 303
i disagree. It was a well thought out synopsis. The retirement numbers still loom, especially at AA.
And, my opinion, once the Covid chains come off, demand is going to explode across all industries. Especially travel. Business travel WILL return in my opinion.
#20
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