Major Hiring - how will it play out?
COVID was truly a black swan, but it is what it is. Resumption of international flying depends on the lowest common denominators and some countries will be a couple of years getting people immunized. And I don’t think IATA is wrong when they think it’s going to be 2023 or 2024 before we see international flying where it was in 2019. And if these countries aren’t going to let their airlines do international flying, they aren’t going to let ours do it either. Likewise, business flying is in the crapper for awhile, and may be a long time returning to 2019 levels.
Right now the Big Three are stuck with their most expensive aircraft parked, and their most well paid crew non-productive. Some of their pilots are furloughed - or at least pending furlough when the PSP runs out. While nobody is in great shape, the least bad off are Alaska, SWA, and the ULCCs.
But I don’t see Alaska or SWA doing any hiring until Hawaii flying comes back at a minimum and - when it does come back - some of Alaska’s hiring is obligated to Horizon through some secret handshake deal. SWA will take applicants from anywhere but their preference for fixed wing military pilots is well known. NK just green-lighted the hiring icon on their profile and F9 just had a hiring window and both have Airbuses on order and inbound - NK recently pulled later orders up into 2022 and F9 has A321 XLRs on order that will be arriving about the time that international flying resumes in earnest.
Black swan or not, the table is tilted - for at least the next 2-4 years, toward companies with a single aircraft (or aircraft family) type, perhaps why Alaska is dumping their Airbus leases and why SWA just put in a big MAX order although that will be mostly one for one replacement of older 737s.
Bottom line seems to me that the Big Three aren’t going to be hiring much the next 2-3 years and the growth - if they can carry it off - seems to be at the ULCCs and possibly SWA. Despite the number of retirements they once had (many of whom took early buy-outs) there will be a few years stagnation in Big Three hiring.
Just my opinion, and you are welcome to disagree.