Wells Fargo just announced they’re paying new hire employees starting pay of $21 per hour. While driving I saw an Ad for school bus drivers “pay $21-30 an hour”. I’d say inflation is working it’s magic.

Also the regionals should be aware they need to do better with pay, yet even now the “desperate” shops offer peanuts straight pay and a sucker bonus.

All that sounds great, but if we have a hyperinflation event, all bets are off the table.

Black swan events can have an impact. Anything minor will be obliterated with massive retirements this decade.

It would have to be massive to see a sustained impact.

Otherwise it looks to be a sustained very tight pilot marked.

I tend to agree.

This is sorta more than a pilot market event.


this is a “how many pilots can be sustainably harvested from the regionals” event.

The industry has had 30 years of bankruptcies and terror attacks and recessions and reg changes and finally now a pandemic keeping a lid on its fundamental staffing problem.

New hires aren’t really the problem. It’s keeping them around long enough to be captains and line check airmen. Four years is really an absolute minimum… which means that a 20,000 pilot industry can provide at most 5,000 hires per year. And that is if the hiring and getting-to-1000 and upgrade machine is humming.

But more likely hiring 5000 in a year … who will be mostly captains and LCA’s will collapse the system. Still 15,000 regional pilots but not the ones they need in the right place.

And hiring by the majors, LLCs, and freight dogs is forecast to be 9,000 to 10,000 next year. With forecast coming from the ex military and other pilots, the draw out of the regionals is estimated to be 7,000 this next year, and not all that much less annually in 2023 thru 2030. I agree with you this is not sustainable. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see some regionals will fail due to lack of pilots and the regional airline model will be in for a major restructuring.

I expect the bottom tier regionals to really pick up the E3 Aussie and other work visa hiring (if they could).

Seems like the perfect hiring profile for HR- not eligible for Majors and most LCCs so will likely upgrade and stay as Captain, while grateful to escape and be flying a regional jet that would have 3000hrs and 5 moon landing minimums back home.

The problem is, though, that they are losing their captains. They can get all of the new hires they want, but it won't help. They need pilots with 1000+ 121 TPIC time and ready to upgrade. Those will all be at the majors.

Yesterday in my mail there was a flyer for Pizza Hut and starting driver pay was $20-$25 depending on day or night shift. My first airline job I made $18 bucks an hour. Crazy

What does this mean for corporate pilots trying to get hired at the majors and ULCC? Will we see a higher percentage of corporate and 135 pilots in classes since hiring them doesn't jeopardize airlines' regional feeds, or are the number of them that apply too small to make a difference?