How will LCCs respond?
 

Hopefully other regionals outside of AA WO start offering similar pay / incentives to stay.

So that leaves the question how will LCC carriers respond? Either they can update their contracts substantially and the regional exodus will continue or they can start general hiring of Commercial Multi pilots outside of the select few flight schools that have that opportunity now. Heard stories LCC interview groups have people still on IOE at their regional so really how far away are we from that anyway?

If a year 2 FO at a regional is making CA pay at $146, that is about year 4-6 FO pay at an LCC roughly.

More Aussies and 1500hr Cessna pilots…

Meet w/ the union to open negotiations early.

The big problem - at least for F9, NK, and B6, is that they don’t know what the acquisition holds for them. NK management knows that NK as an independent entity is going away. The B6 hostile takeover threat means their sweetheart deals with F9 might not - in fact probably won’t - happen. So they are busy buffing and polishing their own resumes and have zero interest in continuing to manage the airline and in particular not in negotiating a CBA that will quite likely be overtaken by a JCBA (although just who is an issue) anyway.

Until that decision gets made, I think NK is just going to flounder with high attrition. One way or another, F9 and B6 can at least adjust their CBAs to compensate for the higher regional pay scales. NK I’m not sure can.

You will still make more at LCCs than WO regionals. Only the minority who benefit (LCAs/lifers) will make more, others just can't do math.

Frontier, Spirit, Avelo, Breeze, and Sun Country are already hiring 1500 hour CFIs straight out of ATP Flight School.

https://atpflightschool.com/airlines/

Yes that's why I wrote in my original post that they'll most likely have to open it up outside of the flight school deals. I think Sun Country was hiring without any flight school deal but there probably weren't a whole lot of 1500 hr or 1000 hr CFIs in their classes. Those training programs would most likely have to be modified for a new type of student coming in, one who doesn't have a type rating, ATP or turbine time if they want to see success going forward. It's either that or stay competitive in the industry.

It was mentioned on the NK board that 1/3 of their hires were from AA WOs. So if other regionals follow suit the hiring at LCCs will slow immensely and people leaving for the exit door for legacies surely won't stop either.

Considering hourly pay I agree but once you factor in the total bonuses if someone were to stay until they flow then I'm not so sure anymore. Especially now the bonuses aren't pro-rated anymore so if you're not careful to put it away vs spending it you're going to be coughing up a big chunk of change to dip for an LCC. A lot also weighs on if the rates will stay or drop in 2024 at the WOs at least.

I think you have an accurate prediction.

Agreed. If you still have years left to flow you’d probably want to get to a major now for obvious reasons. We’ll find out soon if you can convince someone to stay at a regional by throwing money at them.