Is the regional model imploding?
 

You see it in thread after thread, hear it from fellow jumpseaters. Too few CAs. Too many FOs. It looks like a system near collapse.

Historically (ie, a few years pre COVID), people (excepting military flyers doing a touch and go after a decade of flying a desk) often languished in the regionals for years. Excepting those ex-military, 1000 TPIC was considered sort of entry level to be CONSIDERED for a legacy FO job and most successful applicants had far more. As a regional FO, you NEEDED 1000 hrs of SIC to be upgrade eligible but you might have to get a couple thousand hours to actually have the seniority to successfully bid for an upgrade, then having made CA, you might have spent awhile on reserve before you could seriously start gaining TPIC. So most regional CAs might spend a half decade or more as a CA before they got the call and a lot didn’t get the call at all, settling into a sort of ‘bloom where you are planted’ mode and becoming regional lifers. It was a slow trudge for many in the regionals but the model was functional - that is, self sustaining. But that was then and this is now.

At the start of COVID the Big Three legacies we’re expecting the decrease in flying to last longer than it eventually turned out it did. They already had near record numbers of age related retirements coming, but they incentivized early retirements for even more of their senior pilots. They got rid of a whole lot of people. WN did the same with their oldest pilots. But flying came back quicker than people imagined at a time when military flyers were also in short supply and military training had been cut back for a decade. When that flying came back so quickly, the Big Four had to hire lots of people. The most readily available source was the regional world. That’s when the regional model came under pressure.

Regional CAs with less than 1000 TPIC and even senior regional FOs started being hired at the Big Four, and other majors. ULCCs went even deeper into the regional FO pool. And the regional model soon started to show signs of failure. The question now is; Is the regional model still self-sustaining?

The most limiting factor appears to be the 1000 hr of 121 SIC retirement for upgrade. That drives the whole system. But as CAs started to leave, the pool of upgrade eligible (and willing) FOs also began to be drained. Generally you need more CAs than FOs, but suddenly those ratios were reversed and as more and more experienced FOs left for majors as well, the flying had to contract because there were not enough CAs to do the job. But as zero 121-time FOs were added at the bottom and experienced FOs left for majors the average experience level of FOs went well below the historical level. Many regionals simply didn’t have the FOs they needed who were upgrade eligible to fill their CA classes.

So right now a lot of regionals are paying big bucks for DECs and heavily working their remaining ‘lifers’ - those with too much invested in where they are and the seniority they have to be tempted away to a major. But DECs are becoming harder to find, ‘lifers’ are also retiring, and in many regionals the CA shrinkage only continues. And the more the CA group contracts, the more the incentive for even the ‘lifers’ to look elsewhere, because if the regional actually does fold they’ll be looking for another job anyway. Same for the FOs who can be competitive at even a ULCC. If their regional IS going to implode, they’ll perhaps be better off being at a ULCC - using it as a stepping stone - rather than a regional that may contract out of business. Nobody wants to be the one with no chair when the music stops and if something doesn’t change (a recession maybe?) that may happen in several regionals. That well might accelerate the process as things get tighter.

So is the regional model still self sustaining? Or is it imploding?

Imploding. I don’t think it’ll be around in the next 5-7 years. I regularly tell people to get on with a LCC rather than getting a 1000 hours of SIC.

There are a slew of mainline pilots that are telling regionals pilots to stay put because they all got a massive pay raise (which is extremely short sighted imo). Unless you want to go to FedEx or UPS, there’s no reason to stay put and upgrade.

Prior to the birth of the regional jet in the mid 1990s, commuter airlines fed their major airline counterparts in the hubs. The idea being incremental passengers added from Altoona, and Hagerstown, and Jamestown, etc… could top off a 737 from Pittsburgh to Raleigh. Those airlines - Chautauqua, Commutair, Mesaba, Express One, the Mesa family of carriers, CCAir, Colgan, etc… flew a variety of turboprops ranging from 19 to about 37 seats. Jetstream, Metro, B1900, Saab, Dash 8, Shorts 360. You get the idea.

Mainline flying started at around 65-85 passengers (Bac 1-11 / Fokker 28) with the DC9-30 coming in above that at around 100-110 and the 737-200 not much above that.

The introduction of the CRJ at Comair, and the subsequent and inexplicable sale of scope by ALPA carriers created a permanent industry wide B-scale that has lasted nearly three decades, and creeped ever larger. After 9/11, scope was loosened yet again, allowing RJs to capture more and more narrow body flying while mainline furloughees were sidelined and then sidelined again by age 65. The lost decade that we created.

Now nearly 100 passenger jetliners with transcontinental capability are ubiquitous.

So back to your question. Will the regional model fail? Maybe it will. But if we look at it as a B scale, as opposed to a stand alone industry, would it’s failure really be such a big deal? Airlines will find ways to continue to serve those markets that they can serve profitably. Even if that means bringing that flying back in house with airplanes similar to the A220, 717, and E190. And maybe the next airplanes to serve Altoona and Hagerstown are the new breed of electric 19 seaters currently under development.

As for the regionals, maybe a quote by Kylo Ren is appropriate. “Let the past die. Kill it if you have to.”

Case in point.

https://twitter.com/AeroCrewNews/sta...5mZ1WBOp5BI6IA

Let it burn.

Yeah I doubly dl will bring them in house. If they wanted to do that they could have done it all this time. Just because the unions have talked and agree to it doesn’t mean dl wants to do it or will do it. It’s clearly been a thing end pilots have wanted and company has never offered it. While dl mec has agreed to it bringing them in house or giving them seniority does absolutely nothing for delta pilots except maybe make dl less enticing as a destination. Imagine finally getting offered main line and you’re told you’ll be on the crj.

That's the MECs.

Still need to get management on board. Pretty sure COEX had the same agreement many years ago (yes the same regional that was shut down in 2020).

Pilots will happily fly the CRJ for mainline rates.

not to mention it’s another 2000 pilots of furlough protection for the recession I keep hearing is right around the corner.

How different are the rates?