Is the regional model imploding?
 

You see it in thread after thread, hear it from fellow jumpseaters. Too few CAs. Too many FOs. It looks like a system near collapse.

Historically (ie, a few years pre COVID), people (excepting military flyers doing a touch and go after a decade of flying a desk) often languished in the regionals for years. Excepting those ex-military, 1000 TPIC was considered sort of entry level to be CONSIDERED for a legacy FO job and most successful applicants had far more. As a regional FO, you NEEDED 1000 hrs of SIC to be upgrade eligible but you might have to get a couple thousand hours to actually have the seniority to successfully bid for an upgrade, then having made CA, you might have spent awhile on reserve before you could seriously start gaining TPIC. So most regional CAs might spend a half decade or more as a CA before they got the call and a lot didn’t get the call at all, settling into a sort of ‘bloom where you are planted’ mode and becoming regional lifers. It was a slow trudge for many in the regionals but the model was functional - that is, self sustaining. But that was then and this is now.

At the start of COVID the Big Three legacies we’re expecting the decrease in flying to last longer than it eventually turned out it did. They already had near record numbers of age related retirements coming, but they incentivized early retirements for even more of their senior pilots. They got rid of a whole lot of people. WN did the same with their oldest pilots. But flying came back quicker than people imagined at a time when military flyers were also in short supply and military training had been cut back for a decade. When that flying came back so quickly, the Big Four had to hire lots of people. The most readily available source was the regional world. That’s when the regional model came under pressure.

Regional CAs with less than 1000 TPIC and even senior regional FOs started being hired at the Big Four, and other majors. ULCCs went even deeper into the regional FO pool. And the regional model soon started to show signs of failure. The question now is; Is the regional model still self-sustaining?

The most limiting factor appears to be the 1000 hr of 121 SIC retirement for upgrade. That drives the whole system. But as CAs started to leave, the pool of upgrade eligible (and willing) FOs also began to be drained. Generally you need more CAs than FOs, but suddenly those ratios were reversed and as more and more experienced FOs left for majors as well, the flying had to contract because there were not enough CAs to do the job. But as zero 121-time FOs were added at the bottom and experienced FOs left for majors the average experience level of FOs went well below the historical level. Many regionals simply didn’t have the FOs they needed who were upgrade eligible to fill their CA classes.

So right now a lot of regionals are paying big bucks for DECs and heavily working their remaining ‘lifers’ - those with too much invested in where they are and the seniority they have to be tempted away to a major. But DECs are becoming harder to find, ‘lifers’ are also retiring, and in many regionals the CA shrinkage only continues. And the more the CA group contracts, the more the incentive for even the ‘lifers’ to look elsewhere, because if the regional actually does fold they’ll be looking for another job anyway. Same for the FOs who can be competitive at even a ULCC. If their regional IS going to implode, they’ll perhaps be better off being at a ULCC - using it as a stepping stone - rather than a regional that may contract out of business. Nobody wants to be the one with no chair when the music stops and if something doesn’t change (a recession maybe?) that may happen in several regionals. That well might accelerate the process as things get tighter.

So is the regional model still self sustaining? Or is it imploding?

Imploding. I don’t think it’ll be around in the next 5-7 years. I regularly tell people to get on with a LCC rather than getting a 1000 hours of SIC.

There are a slew of mainline pilots that are telling regionals pilots to stay put because they all got a massive pay raise (which is extremely short sighted imo). Unless you want to go to FedEx or UPS, there’s no reason to stay put and upgrade.

Prior to the birth of the regional jet in the mid 1990s, commuter airlines fed their major airline counterparts in the hubs. The idea being incremental passengers added from Altoona, and Hagerstown, and Jamestown, etc… could top off a 737 from Pittsburgh to Raleigh. Those airlines - Chautauqua, Commutair, Mesaba, Express One, the Mesa family of carriers, CCAir, Colgan, etc… flew a variety of turboprops ranging from 19 to about 37 seats. Jetstream, Metro, B1900, Saab, Dash 8, Shorts 360. You get the idea.

Mainline flying started at around 65-85 passengers (Bac 1-11 / Fokker 28) with the DC9-30 coming in above that at around 100-110 and the 737-200 not much above that.

The introduction of the CRJ at Comair, and the subsequent and inexplicable sale of scope by ALPA carriers created a permanent industry wide B-scale that has lasted nearly three decades, and creeped ever larger. After 9/11, scope was loosened yet again, allowing RJs to capture more and more narrow body flying while mainline furloughees were sidelined and then sidelined again by age 65. The lost decade that we created.

Now nearly 100 passenger jetliners with transcontinental capability are ubiquitous.

So back to your question. Will the regional model fail? Maybe it will. But if we look at it as a B scale, as opposed to a stand alone industry, would it’s failure really be such a big deal? Airlines will find ways to continue to serve those markets that they can serve profitably. Even if that means bringing that flying back in house with airplanes similar to the A220, 717, and E190. And maybe the next airplanes to serve Altoona and Hagerstown are the new breed of electric 19 seaters currently under development.

As for the regionals, maybe a quote by Kylo Ren is appropriate. “Let the past die. Kill it if you have to.”

Case in point.

https://twitter.com/AeroCrewNews/sta...5mZ1WBOp5BI6IA

Let it burn.

Yeah I doubly dl will bring them in house. If they wanted to do that they could have done it all this time. Just because the unions have talked and agree to it doesn’t mean dl wants to do it or will do it. It’s clearly been a thing end pilots have wanted and company has never offered it. While dl mec has agreed to it bringing them in house or giving them seniority does absolutely nothing for delta pilots except maybe make dl less enticing as a destination. Imagine finally getting offered main line and you’re told you’ll be on the crj.

That's the MECs.

Still need to get management on board. Pretty sure COEX had the same agreement many years ago (yes the same regional that was shut down in 2020).

Pilots will happily fly the CRJ for mainline rates.

not to mention it’s another 2000 pilots of furlough protection for the recession I keep hearing is right around the corner.

How different are the rates?

Mainline rates vary by airframe. “Mainline rates” on a crj would almost certainly be exactly what they are today.

Mainline 900 rates are actually in the Delta PWA and are significantly higher than 9E rates, never mind the improved work rules, profit sharing, and other things that DL offers.

What are the rates?

I don’t know about Delta but United has had rates for the crj900 for years. Current UPA has FO rates year 1,6, and 12 of $91, $113, and $124. Captain rates at those years of $174, $182, $191. The Tumi TA brought the top rate up to $208.

Delta 900 FO is a twelve-year scale from $92 to $125. Delta 900 captain is a twelve-year scale from $168 to $183. Add to that 16% DC and profit sharing.

9E 900 FO is a seven-year scale from $53 to $71. 9E 900 captain is a fifteen-year scale from $94 to $129. No DC, no profit sharing.

I am flying with more FOs wnd hearing of more CAs who are staying at the regionals now and delaying mainline transition with the new pay bump. Kinda interesting.

They’re idiots unless they’re within a few years of retirement. A 6 month delay could mean a 1,500 pilot difference in seniority.

Chalk this up to natural selection in the airline industry.

Dude. How can this singular subject be so fascinating to you that you can’t help but continuously pontificate/opine/obsess on it?

I mean, it is pretty fascinating. We could be witnessing the collapse of the existing regional industry, and the rebirth of something completely different. Or, maybe not. One of those things where no one's crystal ball is better than the next.

Not to mention, a lot of people out there have their careers and livelihood wrapped up in the regionals in one way or another. Pilots, along with ground crew, FAs, management, etc.

The thought of watching an industry undergo a large change in such a short period of time is an interesting opportunity. I knew folks in the defense industry when the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold War "ended" in the early 90s. The subsequent consolidation of defense companies had effects that reverberate today. Knew others who were climbing the ladder in the music business in the early 2000s when online streaming took hold and upended the entire business model.

The average Joe or Jane air traveler probably doesn't know (or care), beyond wondering why the "little jets" seem to appear less and less at their local airport. For anyone in the industry, I think it's fascinating to watch it all unfold, and speculate where it will all go.

Many of us spent a lot of time in the regionals before we moved on. Additionally, the regional model of career progression feeds our airlines new pilots. If that fails it’s going to be more challenging for us to grow.

Not necessarily. The majors and legacy airlines will just hire 1,500 hour pilots straight from flight school.

Will that provide the same margin of safety as having someone in the right seat that has 2500 hours of flying, 1500 of that in the regionals?

or perhaps more accurately, HOW do we assure that it does?

In addition to lower costs there are some tangible benefits (for the majors) to having folks do an internship at the regionals...

1) Allows for an "observation" period to see who screws up, how badly and how often. This is particularly relevant in our industry where there are few opportunities to objectively measure pilot quality/skill.

2) Allows for an observation period for "whole person" factors, inter-personal behavior, reliability, etc. IMO especially important for young folks.

1&2 are important because once you hire someone into a union system, it's really hard to get rid of them unless they screw up in the first year.

3) The actuaries will always prefer that the more experienced pilots fly the larger liability equipment. Can they insure 250 hour pilots on 777's? Sure, the rest of the world does it. But they'd rather not given a choice.

4) Mil pilot recruiting... if they have to start on low paid RJ's with crap schedules, a lot of them won't bother. You'd still get 32 y/o O-3's's willing to pay dues for the long-term payoff, but retirees will probably get jobs in other sectors (which they can do easily).


If they needed to, they could adapt to wet R-ATPs at the majors/legacies. I'm pretty sure we'll see that at the US LCC's (in fact I already met one from SY... CFI to 737). The legacies could provide a more in-depth training program... the way I'd do it would involve longer/more detailed training followed by a HIGHER than FAA standard checking for new-hires. They'd have to bake some additional selectivity into new-hire/probation screening to account for the loss of the regional filter. That could be tailored to prior experience... pilots with professional turbine experience wouldn't have as many hurdles as a piston R-ATP.

I disagree. Delta B717/A220 FO pays about the same as most RJ operators are paying these days and they do just as many short legs to CHA, TYS, etc.

Most of the guys retiring from the mil have pensions so they aren’t really worried about that first year pay like the younger guys are.

I’ve been wondering the same thing.

All need to remember, without those “regional jets” bringing passengers into the hub, there are no high paying wide body jets going to Europe and Asia. Feed is the only way to make the big jets viable to fly.

Yes, 50 seaters need to go, but 76 seater rj’s full a lot of mainline connecting flights. The first major who can put the regional flying under one seniority list, will clearly have a leg up on the competition. This will solve pilot recruitment issues and allow for a known pilot progression plan.

I'm not certain the current regional pay is sustainable, it may be a bandaid until they can sort out the way forward. If they brought 175's in house at current small jet rates, yeah that would be fine.

It's not just first year... at some point post-retirement wave a new hire might spend years as a small-jet FO. Mil retirement will keep food on the table and a roof over your head but it's not a windfall. At some point those guys will take other jobs instead.

That said, I don't think recruiting mil retirees is a huge driving factor for the airlines, just a consideration.

To point 1 - I get the concept, but dead pax are still dead pax whether it’s a 145, Q400, 797, A360, or what have you. Thankfully we haven’t endured that since 2009. Fingers crossed it keeps up indefinitely.

To your last point - Majors are already adapting. F9 has announced a Rotor transition program. I have a couple CFIs in my transition (initial for them) class at Atlas. They’re sharp kids and it seems the hiring department has been pretty selective and followed them through training/CFI time, along with sending them to a jet transition course.

Obviously we know aptitude is predictive of success based on the MIL experience - guess the jury is out WRT how selective the 2nd tier can be once the big 6 start hiring wet ATPs.

Then again the RJ operators have been taking wet R-ATPs since the mid-2010s and commercial pilots in the decade preceding that.

A220 does not do regional flying at DL. It’s some of the most desirable domestic flying currently with an average 1.8 legs a day. On the FO side it is similar mid seniority to the 7ER and more senior than 737 and 320.

On the latest award, captain went junior on the 7ER and 737 to the 220

subject to change of course

If the COMAIR and Colgan events had been widebodies the liability would have been $6B instead of $1B each (ballpark). That's getting to be real money.

Not at my airline. Mainline calls - captains go. To do otherwise is stupid. And they know it.

Back in the old days, TWA and PanAm used to hire pilots and sit them in the jump seat as a No stripe observer. Or so I have been told by CAs of the Charles Lindbergh era.

Yeah but now that the bandaid is on, how/when does it ever come off?

If they prop up the regional model with high pay in order to get through the retirement wave, they have a couple options to reel it back in when the time comes...

1. Wait until there's a pilot surplus (assuming that ever happens again), and then startup new regionals which attract young upwardly mobile time-builders with fast upgrade. The established regionals then have to accept concessions or lose their flying. Nothing new there, the regional death march road is littered with the corpses of Top Regionals which were put down.

2. Let inflation do it's work over time. Slower maybe, but gets there in the end.


That's if they bother to keep the regional industry intact, it's not even clear that's going to happen.

There's an issue with this. If you bring the regionals in house at a major, it will stop other regional CAs from going to that major. For example: Let's say AA brings PSA in house and staples them to the bottom of the seniority list. A CA at a different regional, maybe Republic is looking to move on to a major. They won't look at AA because they won't want to start at the bottom of the list below the CRJ guys. You'd have to give them some sort of seniority credit to make that remotely attractive. Scenario 2: Someone at the bottom of the CRJ list who was hired at PSA right before PSA joins AA. Option is to stay at PSA and ride the list up to where you want to be, which could take years, or jump to United where they can start in a bigger plane with a bigger schedule sooner and not be so far down the list. Obviously they likely would not stay. I don't see a solution to this problem unless you guarantee some sort of seniority portability, which seems unlikely. It's going to get messy, and airlines will have to either be creative in poaching other companies' pilots while keeping their own, or come to some sort of (illegal) backdoor agreement to stop the poaching altogether.

Fine by me. The idea that military guys have some god given right to waltz into a 777 needs to die. Some of us have spent years loyally flying the same customers as mainline. If my 76 seat jet is below your dignity, then go sell insurance! I'd rather fly with a 1,500 hour kid than a salty old colonel anyway...

The way around it would be a experience fence hiring situation. Similar to what we see at ACMI carriers. If you have a certain amount of hours/experience, that will allow someone to get hired directly into class to bid for a NB/WB slot but your global seniority number will still be based on DOH. Those with less experience will be hired into the RJ and seat locked for a specific period of time and will be eligible to bid off until seat lock expires and required experience to bid the NB/WB fleet is met and their global seniority will also be based off of DOH…

Someone else noted the concept of split classes. Certain people get invited to classes with only rj drops and others get invited to rj-free dates

It's not about having a "right" to do that, it's about recruiting... they know mil, especially retired mil, have other options in life. That issue has actually been diluted by the rise of big RJ's flying longer stages, it's not like the ten-leg turbo-prop days of yore (under 135 duty limits).