The unions won't let them lower pay, right?

 

I disagree. Doubling or Tripling anticipated retirements over a year then trying to play catch up started a feedback loop that stripped the regionals of LCA's and captains faster than they could be replaced.

This pause will let them regenerate. I suspect regional LCA and captain will remain a decent job. There are still too many retirements in the coming decade to keep the regionals staffed otherwise.

But Regional FO pay will stagnate or decrease and the union will go along with it ... why? Because some other regional will get the flying if they don't.

 

Come back and check in a couple of years (when Boeing gets their quality act together and deliveries ramp up). We will see who is right.

 

Vacancy - I agree. Seems like people are forgetting that many regionals' nice pay for FO's was a temporary and expiring boost. I'd wager more regionals have Republic-esque contracts in the future . Meanwhile the 1500-2000 hour pilot glut is swelling even larger each month, and the justified FOMO is going to fuel the trend of pilots taking less than ideal job circumstances. Stagnation sucks, especially after witnessing the past few years.

 

From what I can tell flight schools, especially the zero to hero 100k loan type, are packed. DPEs charging $2K for certain rides after a two month wait if you can get a hold of one at all. Seems like there’s an enormous amount of people in the pipeline behind just that hour range.

 

One major regional doesn’t have a union they will do as they please I’m sure

 

No. only way pay goes down is if a company reorganizes under bankruptcy or they start another whipsaw airline. Although I think most new regional contracts prohibit separate companies.

 

They already have at least three whipsaw airlines - Piedmont, Commutair and Air Wisconsin are all on death row absent a new airframe.

They get offered new airframes contingent on a new deal- the union will say yes. The changes would mostly fall on new hires and/or FO's - therefore wouldn't affect voters much - and could be offset by some sort of signing bonus. Another tactic - probably workable as an LOA - is union approval of a training bond or something similar.

Then there's always Skywest.

 

the old saying, airlines are hiring until they are not! Last year was a crazy year for majors hiring which caused a vacuum behind that. Now, they have hired what they need and have just slowed down/paused for now. 4 years ago it was about covid, today its about hiring a ton and getting caught up, some operators shutting down, and boeing delivering less. This will create a backlog and you better do something to stand out, have your CFII or MEI, join a cadet program etc. The days of getting to 1500 and fogging a mirror are done for awhile, it doesnt mean there wont be jobs out there you will just have to work to find them, network, meet the chiefs etc. It will be interesting to see how the newer generation of pilots handles this. If you are older, consider 135 as maybe your career because you may be stuck at a regional for so long you may never make it to a mojor or be at such low seniority your QOL is bad until you reach 65. 135 doesnt have the 65 required retirement and the larger ones are paying pretty decent right now.

 

How old you talking?