Airline Pilot Central Forums - Hiring Contracts

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3940899)

Told ya so…….
The hiring is not going back to post pandemic levels of over 12,000 new hires a year…. It will be 3,000 to 4,000 a year at the legacies. That level will remain until 3032.

2032 I’m sure we would have blown ourselves to bits by then. Roaches will be flying MD11s by then

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujo665 (Post 3942286)

my track record of reading my crystal ball has been majority correct for well over a decade & a half. If you knew me, you’d know it’s true.
predicted several bankruptcies well over a year in advance.
predicted several airlines that would be out of business, bought sold or merged over a year in advance (Including the most recent Mesa one)
called the pilot shortage looming back in 2011, 4 years before management’s crapped their pants and started throwing huge improvements at pilots. Had Covid not happened, a few regionals would have vanished even sooner.
predicted that FO would not need to upgrade at a regional to go to a legacy. (That’s over by the way)

you will see legacies reintroducing higher preferred minimums including PIC requirements again. So Leaving your regional to get Airbus time at an LCC to jump to a legacy isn’t going to work well going forward now. Upgrade, and getting 1000 TPIC will become the golden ticket again. At the same time, you can expect the whipsaw game to start again pushing for concessions and cost cutting…..

now, there’s some real prognostication for you.

Whats going to happen to Spirit?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluespoon (Post 3944598)

Whats going to happen to Spirit?

Oooo, tough one. I called their BK over 3 years ago. Told several friends there to get out. People called me nuts. There were carriers interested in merging/buying, but at this point they’d be stupid to buy the debt and senior labor forces when they can just pick over the carcas for the planes and equipment they want.
Now, if they could get serious concessions from labor, and massive write down of their debt, you WILL see somebody step up to buy them, either as a stand alone or a merge. Hard to see right now.

I could even see one of the ACMI’s taking a bunch of planes to add more ICE and Govt contract work. ATSG is always looking for more 321’s to cut holes in and convert to box haulers. Both United and AA would scoop up a bunch of hulls too. Delta is grabbing up as many A220 slots as it can get (mistake in my opinion, but that’s another topic).

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeBlo (Post 3940382)

Skywest Republic

Don't sign one, you will thank me later

Pretty sure Endeavor and GoJet both are running new hire contracts too.

Honestly I don't think anyone can be picky with joining a regional right now. Now more than ever it's critical to get a seniority number and start building 121 time if airlines are your dream.

Almost every decision in this career is some sort of calculated gamble, accepting the contract can 100% pay off by having a jet job and getting hours and money. Or it can lock you into your regional if hiring booms again. It's up to you if the gamble makes sense or not.