Which regionals are using hiring contracts ?

 

Skywest Republic

Don't sign one, you will thank me later

 

? like in 10 years when they are still a CFI and all there buddy's are at a Major??

 

Haha, exactly. You cannot predict what the future is gonna do. I was very much outspoken and against the contract at Republic (I was not part of it). And simply trying to say if no one signed it, it would go away. But that clearly did not work and Republic still got more applications than they needed to fill seats.

Fast forward and those kids who signed it out of desperation are looking like they will have made out like bandits with the industry-wide slowdown. They got steady work, $100k in bonuses, and will be in perfect position for when hiring ramps up again. They timed it perfectly, even if unknowingly.

I stood corrected. I still disagree with the premise and wish no one would have signed it but I cannot control what others do. Good for them.

 

Told ya so…….
The hiring is not going back to post pandemic levels of over 12,000 new hires a year…. It will be 3,000 to 4,000 a year at the legacies. That level will remain until 3032.

 

Add in 3,000 Spirt pilots that may be flooding the market and this could stall things out for the regional boys and girls for a year.. Take a offer even if in comes at the price of a agreement...

 

that’s some serious prognostication

 

my track record of reading my crystal ball has been majority correct for well over a decade & a half. If you knew me, you’d know it’s true.
predicted several bankruptcies well over a year in advance.
predicted several airlines that would be out of business, bought sold or merged over a year in advance (Including the most recent Mesa one)
called the pilot shortage looming back in 2011, 4 years before management’s crapped their pants and started throwing huge improvements at pilots. Had Covid not happened, a few regionals would have vanished even sooner.
predicted that FO would not need to upgrade at a regional to go to a legacy. (That’s over by the way)

you will see legacies reintroducing higher preferred minimums including PIC requirements again. So Leaving your regional to get Airbus time at an LCC to jump to a legacy isn’t going to work well going forward now. Upgrade, and getting 1000 TPIC will become the golden ticket again. At the same time, you can expect the whipsaw game to start again pushing for concessions and cost cutting…..

now, there’s some real prognostication for you.

 

Pretty sure he was referencing the “3032” typo, but yeah I’m with you in broad strokes…at least through 2032 or so.

Though there was some recent APC RUMINT that United had been looking at candidates without TPIC (or at least significant amounts) recently again, assuming they checked other boxes.

Agree that’s it’s quite a roll of the dice to count on that, though. “Upgrade and get 1000 TPIC” is much more conservative advice.

 

I'm thinking by 2432 at the latest we should have quantum teleportation suitable for short distances which will really hit some bread and butter routes like New Boston to New New York