As I said, the good thing about being a pessimist is that all your surprises are pleasant ones. And indeed, Bain and Company (https://www.bain.com) a top global management consulting firm is predicting a 2.4% annual GLOBAL increase in airline aircraft.

alt=""https://i.postimg.cc/m2WBcdJp/IMG-7946.jpg

The problem with that prediction is it is global, and includes the foreign aircraft market in places like India and China that will be growing exceedingly fast and while some American pilots go that route to get right seat time in major aircraft types despite relatively low total time (at relatively low wages) that doesn’t mean that US majors are going to be growing anywhere near that fast. In 2025 only three majors did 82% of the hiring; Delta (500), United (1574) and American (1637). Some of that hiring was from NK.

At its peak in 2023 NK employed about 3500 pilots. They’ve furloughed 600 and because of downgrades and Chapter 7 fears they’ve lost a lot of others and are now down to about 2400 pilots and about 175 aircraft from a previous fleet of 220. Now in their SECOND bankruptcy in a year they hope to emerge from it this summer with a fleet of about 100 aircraft. Their pilot pay has recently been cut 8% and their retirement in half. I wouldn’t count on them for any growth soon.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litiga...cy-2026-02-24/

F9 (Frontier) hired 246 in 2025, mostly to replace pilots that moved on to one of the Big Three, which sort of results in an unavoidable double count in the FAPA numbers, FAPA estimates such things lead to as much as a 15% over count in their hiring figures.

F9 lost $137 million in 2025. They have announced plans to return 24 leased aircraft early and to defer 69 aircraft that were on order. Not sure I’d count on them for any of that growth either.

American Airlines hired 1637 pilots in 2025 - more than either of the other Big Three. They made $111 million profit in 2025 (down from $846 million in 2024) on revenues of $54.6 BILLION for a net profit margin of 0.2%, performance so bad compared to their peers that both the pilots union and FA unions are demanding from the board of directors that management practices be changed.

https://www.thehrdigest.com/american-airlines-pilots-union-demand-decisive-action-from-management/

https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-flight-attendants-demand-management-change/

Not sure I’d count on them for a lot of growth anytime soon either.


B6 (JetBlue) had a net loss of $602 million in 2025 (an improvement from their net loss of $795 million in 2024).


…….

There’s an old riddle/joke:

What’s the easiest way to become a millionaire?

The answer? Be a billionaire and buy an airline.

There is nothing about this business that is easy, and its history is littered with carnage and debris (TWA, PanAm, etc.). Even without Mideast wars, pandemics, economic downturns, Age 67, etc., it’s a risky business. And while I will concede that optimists are frequently happier souls than us pessimists, I wouldn’t count my chicks before they are hatched if I were you.

But I certainly HOPE you are right.

Not all airports and airspace is at capacity. In fact most are not.

Also growth is commonly in gauge, ie larger aircraft on the same routes. That doesn't add pilot headcount, but in increases pilot pay.

If demand for travel increases steadily, something for it. Upgauging for sure. More flights from medium size airports to distant hubs, Eg delta flying Raleigh to Salt Lake. And that some point people may open new hubs. If you go down the list of top 25 airline markets, eventually run out of hubs. Number 16 or whatever might become a hub.

aleays been that way, no change

very true……..

Precisely. And at average levels of hiring (regression to the mean) and at average levels of age related retirement (again, regression to the mean) those quasi-guaranteed priority hires will be a far larger proportion of the hiring at majors than they have been during the recent hiring and current retirement surge. Even the current levels of hiring may be quickly lessened if $100 a barrel oil continues (or worsens). But if military hiring is “no change” the decrease must come disproportionately from the population of non former military. That - disproportionately - decreases regional flyer progression.

Personally, I doubt we’ll see worst case scenarios but there is little to suggest hiring will be anything like the two years post COVID when hiring went wild.

The good news - major hiring is modestly ahead of last year at this time.

The bad news - a lot of regional CJOs are stacked up:

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/r...-thread-2.html

And

$150 a barrel oil is going to cause future slowdowns if it persists.

absent a pandemic or global war we’re going to see brisk hiring. Will it be the perfect storm hiring after COVID, no…. But it will be much much better than the lost decade you and I went through. They’ll go from student to legacy captain in the time it took us to get from student to a regional jet job after a few years of turboprops. They’ll be a legacy captain with the TT we had as a senior regional FO waiting to upgrade.

that’s fact, and it’s a good thing career wise.

the problem I see is the race to the bottom is starting again.

For the regionals, yes. That's how the system is designed.

Actually it more kind of evolved into that, but they sure like what they cultivated.

It’s a half hour long…
 

But well worth the time:

https://youtu.be/yepvhknoGyk?si=wDRCzlGkCA1anYBU