This was well presented. Another thing that should be accounted for when assuming the airline pipeline is based on all those commercial pilots should be somehow factoring in all the pilots who drop out of the pursuit.

One way might be to see how many 2nd class medical are renewed. Or how many 1st class medical as well. There are likely a lot of pilots who got to the 200-500 hour range and have tapped out due to the reality of how competitive it is and how much more they have to invest to get to atp minimums (and then still need many more hours to be even considered). Not to mention they need to make money to live.

Really? Say that to Jacksonville or New York Center.

On the other hand, not mentioned was the competition from military aviators. 25-30 years ago, as many as two thirds of legacy pilots were ex military FW pilots. But even today, as many As 30% of legacy hires are ex military. Several legacies have special recruitment programs (ay United it’s UMPP) that can essentially get them CJOs as soon as they leave active duty.

The point is, the FW guys have the inside track at legacies - just as the RW guys take up positions on the regional rosters. And the ex military preferential hires come at the expense - for queuing purposes - of the major hiring jobs available for strictly civilian applicants. Effectively they decrease the slots available for purely civilian hires from ~4000 a year to ~3000 a year. Not criticizing that or celebrating it, but it is reality.

And now, with the Army cutting back on their RW guys, they are getting into the act as well with reduced hours for an RATP and a whole lot of flying experience that is transferable.

As for tracking physicals, most second class physical don’t cost any more than third class and -depending on age - a first class may not cost much more either, so it isn’t uncommon for people to have physicals of a higher class than they actually require. And first class can revert to second or even third class over time.

So people can be flying and building hours to become competitive - and certainly for the number necessary for an ATP - without actually needing a second class. Not saying the physicals might not give you trends, but accurate numbers woukd be hard to tease out.

This has always been a "buy low" industry... if you stick it out and do the sets and reps during the downturn, when things pick up you'll be one of many hundreds of people who have exactly the experience they're looking for... as hiring ramps up to many thousands.

That's easier for some to manage than others, depends on personal/family circumstances.

As Excargo said, I don't think you can get much from FAA medical info... too many permutations as to who needs what medical, when it can lapse, when it needs renewal.

There’s trouble coming.

20,000 new commercial certificates in a year isn’t remotely feasible in an industry which is going to retire 30,000 over the next decade

But is that brand new initial first-time ever CPL's?

How many are PPL's getting a CPL for insurance (it will pay for itself in short order).

Or people getting type rating, category, or class add-ons? I could go get several CPL add-ons just for fun...

Also how many are foreigners who are going to return home to fly? One of my CFI gigs back in the day was nothing but that.

that’s one example but the data is robust from multiple directions. 2025 was the all-time record. 2023/2024 weren’t far behind. CFI numbers are up substantially.

Not all of those 20,000 will chase airline jobs but that’s just one year.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportati...lots.htm#tab-6

BLS is anticipating only about a 4% growth over the 2024-2034 period for airline pilots. If they are correct, then airline hiring will only modestly exceed those retiring, barring single pilot ops or some other issue..

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18,000 per year for the next decade sounds like far more than we saw from 2008-2018.

You apparently missed the AND COMMERCIAL PILOTS part of that. Legions of CFIs, part 135 guys (and gals). A 104% increase in AIRLINE pilots means 4% more than the number retiring. And the two year period in which the majors hired 25,000 means they dipped down sharply in experience levels AND AGE. What that means is that a lot of 25-35 year olds got hired which depresses the average age of the major airline pilot group. Retirement numbers are already starting to fall as the boomers attrit out of the system and the recent influx of younger than traditional hires will somewhat depress new hiring too until they attrit out in 30-40 years. It’s really an interesting exercise of queuing theory.

Hiring at majors isn’t exactly a zero sum game with retirements - there is growth - but it’s a lot more modest growth than the training schools tell you. Of course, they’ve got their legions of CFIs who need students to get their hours to become competitive. And of course, the slower the hiring becomes, the more TT, turbine time, TPIC, college degree, volunteer hours, etc, you are going to need to become competitive.