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Originally Posted by fosters
(Post 235982)
I was looking into XJT stock as well. The company has about $680 million in assets, $390 million in liabilities. That's a NAV of about $290 million. The market cap on the company today is $195 million.
In other words, if the company were liquidated RIGHT NOW, you would get $1.48 for every $1.00 you paid for XJT stock. Now, even if XJT blew thru all of their cash, you'd still come up positive. They've got a total of $307 million in property & equipment. So, after paying liabilities once liquidated, you've got about $17 million in equity. Not a lot, but at least you, as a shareholder, wouldn't LOSE money if they go TU. (someone correct me if I figured this wrong...I'm still new at this). I'm not buying right now, but I am waiting for the MACD and 10-day moving average to reverse. Google Finance says 95% of it's outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors, my guess is they are dumping it which is driving down the value. Here's a chart: http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1319/...c43d8ffb_o.gif Thoughts? I'm just learning about this stuff and would appreciate some ideas from those that make money in the market. ghilis101, I wouldn't worry about analysts. I made 15% in two weeks by buying a stock that was "beat down". Most fund managers can't do that in a year. This seems like an interesting play that I'll have to check in to. Does XJET own their own planes, or lease them from someone else? |
They were recently downgraded...
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Associated Press Ahead of the Bell: ExpressJet Downgraded Associated Press 09.21.07, 9:25 AM ET Popular Videos The Download on Online Gaming Building a Fortune through Stadiums Behind the Wheel at the Indy 30 Rocks and Mobs Rule Britney's Custody Battle Related Quotes XJT 3.52 - 0.10 Most Popular Stories Forbes 400 Richest Americans Secrets Of The Self-Made 2007 Homes of the Billionaires TV's Network Know-It-Alls Where The Rich Network NEW YORK - An analyst cut his rating on regional carrier ExpressJet Holdings Inc. to "Sell" late Thursday and slashed his target price on concerns the company isn't worth the price shareholders are paying. In a note titled "Even At This Price, Lowering Rating to Sell," Soleil Securities analyst James M. Higgins cautioned that expectations built into the current stock price "are highly optimistic." ExpressJet shares closed Thursday at $3.86. The analyst downgraded the Houston-based airline from "Hold" and more than halved his target price, to $3 from $6.50 previously. In doing so, he warned the company is unlikely to generate enough revenue to meet its costs. "We believe it unlikely that XJT can generate returns in its core segments to justify the value reflected in the shares today," he wrote in a note to investors. Higgins, who is bullish on several other airline stocks, now forecasts a 2007 loss of 45 cents per share; he previously estimated a profit of 7 cents per share. For 2008, the analyst lowered his per-share estimate to 40 cents in profit, down from 70 cents previously. "The best thing XJT has going for it is cash flow that should be slightly positive in 2008," he wrote. "But that cash is only worth what it can generate in income unless the company liquidates, and we believe the sum-of-the-parts value of XJT as a going concern is considerably below its market price," he added later. ExpressJet operates a fleet of more than 200 regional jets, mostly under the Continental Express banner. Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed |
In thinking about their financial position again, with only $17 million to spread across 55 million shares of stock, that doesn't leave much for the stockholders. So actually, if they blew thru their cash the stock holders would be hosed.
C152 - they "re" lease their aircraft from CAL. So CAL leases them, then releases them to ExpressJet. |
Originally Posted by fosters
(Post 236082)
In thinking about their financial position again, with only $17 million to spread across 55 million shares of stock, that doesn't leave much for the stockholders. So actually, if they blew thru their cash the stock holders would be hosed.
C152 - they "re" lease their aircraft from CAL. So CAL leases them, then releases them to ExpressJet. |
I'm not dogging the company at all as it has a great contract and I've met nice people there. On paper it doesn't look healthy. I don't expect to ever see it go CH. 11 though. They have their own ticket and that's a valuable asset. Someone will purchase them if they were to ever bottom out. The next earnings report coupled with the Continental negotiations should share some light on the picture. This is the most far fetched thing I've said but it wouldn't surprise me if one day they ended up back with Continental.
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Originally Posted by ToiletDuck
(Post 236142)
I'm not dogging the company at all as it has a great contract and I've met nice people there. On paper it doesn't look healthy. I don't expect to ever see it go CH. 11 though. They have their own ticket and that's a valuable asset. Someone will purchase them if they were to ever bottom out. The next earnings report coupled with the Continental negotiations should share some light on the picture. This is the most far fetched thing I've said but it wouldn't surprise me if one day they ended up back with Continental.
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Originally Posted by SAABaroowski
(Post 236147)
Nobody is "buying" us, CAL wouldnt allow that.................
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Institutional buying's been up over the past few months... it's looking promising for a good turn-around.
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Originally Posted by SAABaroowski
(Post 236147)
Nobody is "buying" us, CAL wouldnt allow that.................
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Originally Posted by N618FT
(Post 236164)
Institutional buying's been up over the past few months... it's looking promising for a good turn-around.
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