XJT Stock Price
 

$3.62 ... how low will it go (rhetorical -- I can't stand people guessing future prices)? Will it hit the flo'? What's this about them picking up Frontier flights? Here's a chance for Saabarowski to redeem himself and get us some estimated load factor numbers for us :D

well if you believe in analyst's target estimates which are sometimes right, sometimes wrong, the target price for xjt stock 1 year from now is estimated to be $4.83. thats pretty terrible considering how far it came down. but i also wouldnt go buy stock based on that info.

Buy low, sell high

I've heard numerous people say that they would recommend buying XJT stock based on what's forecasted for announcements in the next two months.

Of course, just hearsay... but XJT won't fall through the cracks regardless of the doom and gloom that people worry about.

What is this rumored announcement?

I was looking into XJT stock as well. The company has about $680 million in assets, $390 million in liabilities. That's a NAV of about $290 million. The market cap on the company today is $195 million.

In other words, if the company were liquidated RIGHT NOW, you would get $1.48 for every $1.00 you paid for XJT stock.

Now, even if XJT blew thru all of their cash, you'd still come up positive. They've got a total of $307 million in property & equipment. So, after paying liabilities once liquidated, you've got about $17 million in equity. Not a lot, but at least you, as a shareholder, wouldn't LOSE money if they go TU. (someone correct me if I figured this wrong...I'm still new at this).

I'm not buying right now, but I am waiting for the MACD and 10-day moving average to reverse. Google Finance says 95% of it's outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors, my guess is they are dumping it which is driving down the value.

Here's a chart:
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1319/...c43d8ffb_o.gif

Thoughts? I'm just learning about this stuff and would appreciate some ideas from those that make money in the market.

ghilis101, I wouldn't worry about analysts. I made 15% in two weeks by buying a stock that was "beat down". Most fund managers can't do that in a year.

Hey fosters, where'd you get that screen cap from? What site or program is that?

It's MSN's free program, you have to be using IE for it to show up though. Just get a stock quote at www.moneycentral.com and look under historical charts. It'll prompt you to download it (it's free). I like it better than Scottrade or Fidelity's tools, I think it's easier to read.

Not sure how low it'll go, but buying now for the long run probably isn't a bad idea. Buying based for a 1-3 year payoff would be pretty risky.

It's a highly volatile stock. It's a VERY risky buy. If you want to look at cheaper stocks take a look at the Motley Fool. My Rochester Medical I found through them is currently sitting at around 22% for the year. Didn't put much in it but it's still fun. My mother said it best the other day, "If your stocks aren't making money right now then you don't need to keep them". I think she's right. The market is currently on a nice fat high. Might as well put your money in a savings account then wait for one of the -250+ point days when the oil is spiking. I'm sure you'll get a scare in a month or two when they start talking about homes using more energy for heating in the winter. When that day hits jump on in. I bought 4 new stocks when that happened just a few weeks ago. Currently sitting at 15.8% now with them. Just wish I would have had more money to put in. Being an FO makes it hard. I just use my per diem checks which is usually around $400-$500 a month. Maybe one day I'll actually be worth something. Crappy part is my 401k through the company is making a whopping 1.2%. With inflation I'm still losing money with them.

Airline stocks are not for the faint of heart. You have to decide if you want to take an "investor" perspective or a "trader" perspective. Often, you can do well buying things when nobody wants them. I bought some shares of Pinnacle during the worst of Northwest's bankruptcy, mostly in the $5.50 area. I sold some at $19, some at $16 and still have some. So, it helps to be smart and do research on these things. Not all of the things that you need to know can be found reading reports, however. A sage trader taught me an important thing about those reports. Whenever anyone publicly talks about a company, you can bet that they are talking about what position they have on the stock.

This seems like an interesting play that I'll have to check in to. Does XJET own their own planes, or lease them from someone else?

They were recently downgraded...
 

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Associated Press
Ahead of the Bell: ExpressJet Downgraded
Associated Press 09.21.07, 9:25 AM ET

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NEW YORK -

An analyst cut his rating on regional carrier ExpressJet Holdings Inc. to "Sell" late Thursday and slashed his target price on concerns the company isn't worth the price shareholders are paying.

In a note titled "Even At This Price, Lowering Rating to Sell," Soleil Securities analyst James M. Higgins cautioned that expectations built into the current stock price "are highly optimistic." ExpressJet shares closed Thursday at $3.86.

The analyst downgraded the Houston-based airline from "Hold" and more than halved his target price, to $3 from $6.50 previously. In doing so, he warned the company is unlikely to generate enough revenue to meet its costs.

"We believe it unlikely that XJT can generate returns in its core segments to justify the value reflected in the shares today," he wrote in a note to investors.

Higgins, who is bullish on several other airline stocks, now forecasts a 2007 loss of 45 cents per share; he previously estimated a profit of 7 cents per share. For 2008, the analyst lowered his per-share estimate to 40 cents in profit, down from 70 cents previously.

"The best thing XJT has going for it is cash flow that should be slightly positive in 2008," he wrote. "But that cash is only worth what it can generate in income unless the company liquidates, and we believe the sum-of-the-parts value of XJT as a going concern is considerably below its market price," he added later.

ExpressJet operates a fleet of more than 200 regional jets, mostly under the Continental Express banner.

Copyright 2007 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

In thinking about their financial position again, with only $17 million to spread across 55 million shares of stock, that doesn't leave much for the stockholders. So actually, if they blew thru their cash the stock holders would be hosed.

C152 - they "re" lease their aircraft from CAL. So CAL leases them, then releases them to ExpressJet.

Obviously you've taken corp. finance... :D the reality of it is if a company liquidates, there's usually no equity to spread around by then :( Even Ch 11 gets you nothing -- or a fraction of a cent per share (literally). Seriously doubt that's going to happen but never say never in aviation... either way,there's flying to be done right now and it will get to XJT sooner or later. I don't think the stock's fallen enough yet though. I've made it a practice to not buy stock in companies that are losing money. The only exception was GTW -- bought it at 1.31 and sold it a week later at 1.86 after the Acer buyout deal... how'd I know about that one? :rolleyes:

I'm not dogging the company at all as it has a great contract and I've met nice people there. On paper it doesn't look healthy. I don't expect to ever see it go CH. 11 though. They have their own ticket and that's a valuable asset. Someone will purchase them if they were to ever bottom out. The next earnings report coupled with the Continental negotiations should share some light on the picture. This is the most far fetched thing I've said but it wouldn't surprise me if one day they ended up back with Continental.

Nobody is "buying" us, CAL wouldnt allow that.................

Unless CAL is a major shareholder in XJT, it's not up to them. Shareholders vote on any offers... and if the offer's high enough, you just need 51%.

Institutional buying's been up over the past few months... it's looking promising for a good turn-around.

Cal doesn't own them anymore. My point was that should CAL feel pressured by other regionals, ie RAH, and with XJT's low stock price they could start picking up shares then pull a hostile takeover. Right now, from what I've been told by so-so credible sources, CAL is making money by leasing all the aircraft to XJT. If they would own their own aircraft they'd be sitting better as they'd have more assests to liquidate but right now they don't.

Can you elaborate?

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/Holdings.a...y&selected=XJT

Insiders and institutions have been buying it up as it's been coming down -- they're expecting it to do well or else they wouldnt be getting the stock on its way down... they're seeing it as a discount. Not a lot of bailing either...

Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 158 62,776,349

New Positions: 25 2,563,677

Increased Positions: 76 9,917,712

Decreased Positions: 59 7,629,431

Holders With Activity: 135 17,547,143

Sold Out Positions: 17 1,375,121

Insurance Companies, Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds, etc. However, it depends on the rules that each has to comply with. Some mutual funds are not allowed to purchase stocks under $10 or under $5. That's why the risk goes up substantially for these "cheap" stocks. You want your interests to be aligned with these investors, as they tend to be the "smart" money in a stock. It is considered to be a conservative strategy to purchase stocks with high institutional ownership. Unless the institutions want out. Then, you could get in to trouble in a hurry.

They'd also have significantly less cash on hand. And as anyone who bought a car they can't afford will tell you, you can't take a tire into the grocery store and buy a loaf of bread. Even leasing aircraft from CAL, cash flow is not a problem for XJT. Besides, having an asset to liquidate is only worth while if there is a market for said asset. And there ain't much of a market for 10 year old Jungle Jets. Here's my longshot: CAL pulls more flying, stock price slips further further, XJT gets bought by SWA and turned into SWExpress.:D

lol Jungle Jets...

Very likely.

Those jets still have value. Why do you think CHQ has CRJ's now? Couldn't get anymore 145's and that's just on the US side of things. Countries around the world want those things. You could always purchase the aircraft then operate off loans taken on the collateral on those aircraft or release more stock.

It probably doesn't make much sense for the company to issue more shares with their price so low. It would only serve to dilute the holdings of the current shareholders. I don't know if they have the cash on hand to do it, but a share buy back would likely do a better job of propping up the share price.

So now I have less cash on hand, a depreciating asset AND increased interest expense? Yeeeaaahhhh.....sounds like a great business decision, don't know why no one at XJT thought of it first.:rolleyes:

One of ACA/Indy Air's big missteps was introducing those Airbii so quickly. I understand the operating economics are better on an aircraft that size but not the acquisition expense for an operation that size. They saddled themselves with a bunch of lease/interest expense at the same time they were burning cash to transition pilots onto the new airframe for an unproven operation. Its the same reason XJT didn't run out and buy E190s or A319s for the branded operation.

Fact of the matter is this, CAL holds the leases, CAL takes the risk. Yes, there may be a market for 50 seat RJs but it is small and unpredictable at best. The reason CHQ scrambled with those CRJs was because CAL wouldn't let 'em use the 170s (and because the arrogant SOBs running CAL and CHQ just assumed XJT would roll over and play dead.) But riddle me this: why were those CRJs available to CHQ in the first place? Because they had been sitting in the desert for years. Why had they been sitting in the desert so long? Because no one wanted them!

Yeah, lots of talk here about the numbers. I am not too good with the whole stock market thing. From what they told us, the yearly projected spending would be 30 million. They just spent 24 in the last quarter.

Lots of talk about not getting into an accident cause they would have no other option but to close shop.

There are also some rumors of picking up some frontier work but that will only be as lasting as the Jet Blue work they were given a little while ago.
Was also told that if the stock fell too low that Mesa might be the first to pounce. Yikes!

Not exactly. It isn't like buying a car. Yes I see your point but it still seems as if they'd be better off owning. Once their cash on hand is up they have nothing left to borrow against. Obviously what they are doing now is scaring investors. I was hoping for the best and invested in the company and am currently looking at a little over a 40% loss. Still doing well overall but I'd be averaging over 20% this year if it weren't for this one so I'm currently sitting at 15.8%. Just because someone over there hasn't done doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a good idea. Hindsight is always 20/20 and they did pretty much have those planes just dumped on them with not much time to form a real market plan. Everyone knows the 50 seater aircraft aren't very economical but they either had to give them up or go on their own ticket. They took the gamble and right now aren't doing too well with it.

Here's a question: If XJT was given a good amount of flying with nice long contracts from Frontier, Delta, Continental etc. would they pull aircraft off the branded flying, move them there, and close the routes? Did XJT go branded in efforts to delay losing the aircraft in hopes of finding flying elsewhere?

Few issues here TD. If its so great to own your own airplanes, why doesn't every airline out there own their own airplanes? How many does CHQ own? Ever see that little plaque on the cockpit door that says the aircraft is leased from so-and-so? Don't have to look hard to find one. GECAS owns more airplanes than any airline out there. Guess what they do with em? Lease em to airlines because airlines don't want the risk of trying to sell them later.

As far as you losing money, what can I tell you except maybe to cut your losses, cash in and buy some cheese for your whine with your sale. YOU chose a bad time to buy. Sounds like you need a little practice spotting bottoms (and not the kind you see on girls in the terminal:D). Personally, I don't touch airline stocks (or most any single stock for that matter) and since you're so fond of bragging about your portfolio, mine is up close to 40%. And I don't own any individual stocks. For the kind of investing I do there really is no reason to. If I were you, I'd let the stock slide a little further till it gets near the liquidated value of the company and then buy a bunch more stock and then ride it back up, whether its from an acquisition or if we just start doing awesome.

FYI, the branded flying was one of those contingency plans that was on the shelf for a while before it was brought into reality. According to folks here in the know, the plan was formulated around the time CAL spun us off. Do you really think management here was not aware of the clause that let CAL pull planes? You think they just sat around sucking their thumbs and said "golly gee, I hope it doesn't happen, lets just not even plan for it". Give me a break:rolleyes: Believe it or not, Skywest also developed a similar plan when Delta and United both were in bankruptcy JUST IN CASE worst came to worse and they were out on their a$$.

To answer your question, XJT is going to put the airplanes where they will make the most money for the company. If its with Delta, CAL, Frontier or doing our own flying then so be it. Its called fiduciary duty. Its not like one day Jim Ream woke up and decided he wanted to go off and do his own thing.

They used too. I remember reading that DAL used to buy with cash. I believe UPS still pays cash for theirs.

P.S. What exactly do you own that is up 40%? Energy fund?

I was asking because I wasn't sure about their plans. Why is it any better to pay money to rent a plane when you could pay money to own it? You're going to bleed that cash out anyway. It's like renting a home vs. owning. You can put the same amount of money into something you own. Usually renting is more expensive. My guess is CAL likes the paycheck. Perhaps someone will find it in a financial statement somewhere. I bought XJT on a hunch. I'm not sour about it at all and there's no reason to sell it with it being so low. Like I said I'm still doing well overall. However the market is at high tide and yet XJT keeps sinking more. If it can't make money now with everyone in the industry making money then it's future doesn't look too bright. Of course things can change in the drop of a hat and I hope they do. FYI I only have a couple individual stocks. My per diem checks go into index funds. When the market took a dive a month ago I bought the Brazilian one and have made over 20% since then. No idea how long I plan on holding onto that one. It's my 401k that's just making me want to toss up in my mouth. I thought those people were suppose to be good.

I just need to say that I agree with most of you on XJT future. It has definatly not bottomed out yet, and I don't see a bottom occuring in the near future. Last quater's reported earnings had a negitive cash flow, which definatly makes share holders nervous. I would hold out until the next earnings are announced, if we see a positive cash flow, we may see a turn around. For those of you who follow the technical trends, I wouldn't look at this thing until the RSI cross 30, and with that, I would still consider it to be risky move.

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.

Isn't that what investment advice is? A personal opinion? ;)

Three words E-W-Z:D Bought that little gem over a year ago and haven't looked back.

On a hunch? How'd you find out about it? Why that one?

Its better because it provides flexibility. I'm sure CAL enjoys the pay check and I'm sure XJT enjoys the flexibility leasing provides. At this stage of the game, the name of the game for XJT is cash flow. And the more liquid you can keep your assets the better. A little more expensive, yes. But a hell of a lot easier to work with. Can you borrow against an asset, yes. But now all that money I "saved" buying vs. leasing is lost in interest expense from those loans I took out that were secured with aircraft. It's how a lot of the airlines ended up in horrible D/E positions the last few years. Remember, a $20 million airplane is not worth $20 million. It's only worth what you can sell it for.

As far as the stock being down, its not just XJT. The entire airline industry has been sliding which is not hard to figure out when you look at oil prices and the hints of recession floating around out there.

And FYI, in 2006 (the last period that data is available) XJT spent $332,441,000 on aircraft leases. That works out to about $100,000 per aircraft per month. I'm surprised you invest in individual stocks if you don't know how to find and read a 10-K report.

Read an article about how Brazil was on track to become energy independent in 2 years, saw where energy prices were going, saw the economic numbers looking up since Brazil got inflation under control, etc etc. I don't buy stuff on a hunch. When you're bored with airport appreciation, it's a good time to go dig through financial websites.