Not exactly. It isn't like buying a car. Yes I see your point but it still seems as if they'd be better off owning. Once their cash on hand is up they have nothing left to borrow against. Obviously what they are doing now is scaring investors. I was hoping for the best and invested in the company and am currently looking at a little over a 40% loss. Still doing well overall but I'd be averaging over 20% this year if it weren't for this one so I'm currently sitting at 15.8%. Just because someone over there hasn't done doesn't mean it wouldn't have been a good idea. Hindsight is always 20/20 and they did pretty much have those planes just dumped on them with not much time to form a real market plan. Everyone knows the 50 seater aircraft aren't very economical but they either had to give them up or go on their own ticket. They took the gamble and right now aren't doing too well with it.

Here's a question: If XJT was given a good amount of flying with nice long contracts from Frontier, Delta, Continental etc. would they pull aircraft off the branded flying, move them there, and close the routes? Did XJT go branded in efforts to delay losing the aircraft in hopes of finding flying elsewhere?

 

Few issues here TD. If its so great to own your own airplanes, why doesn't every airline out there own their own airplanes? How many does CHQ own? Ever see that little plaque on the cockpit door that says the aircraft is leased from so-and-so? Don't have to look hard to find one. GECAS owns more airplanes than any airline out there. Guess what they do with em? Lease em to airlines because airlines don't want the risk of trying to sell them later.

As far as you losing money, what can I tell you except maybe to cut your losses, cash in and buy some cheese for your whine with your sale. YOU chose a bad time to buy. Sounds like you need a little practice spotting bottoms (and not the kind you see on girls in the terminal). Personally, I don't touch airline stocks (or most any single stock for that matter) and since you're so fond of bragging about your portfolio, mine is up close to 40%. And I don't own any individual stocks. For the kind of investing I do there really is no reason to. If I were you, I'd let the stock slide a little further till it gets near the liquidated value of the company and then buy a bunch more stock and then ride it back up, whether its from an acquisition or if we just start doing awesome.

FYI, the branded flying was one of those contingency plans that was on the shelf for a while before it was brought into reality. According to folks here in the know, the plan was formulated around the time CAL spun us off. Do you really think management here was not aware of the clause that let CAL pull planes? You think they just sat around sucking their thumbs and said "golly gee, I hope it doesn't happen, lets just not even plan for it". Give me a break Believe it or not, Skywest also developed a similar plan when Delta and United both were in bankruptcy JUST IN CASE worst came to worse and they were out on their a$$.

To answer your question, XJT is going to put the airplanes where they will make the most money for the company. If its with Delta, CAL, Frontier or doing our own flying then so be it. Its called fiduciary duty. Its not like one day Jim Ream woke up and decided he wanted to go off and do his own thing.

 

They used too. I remember reading that DAL used to buy with cash. I believe UPS still pays cash for theirs.

P.S. What exactly do you own that is up 40%? Energy fund?

 

I was asking because I wasn't sure about their plans. Why is it any better to pay money to rent a plane when you could pay money to own it? You're going to bleed that cash out anyway. It's like renting a home vs. owning. You can put the same amount of money into something you own. Usually renting is more expensive. My guess is CAL likes the paycheck. Perhaps someone will find it in a financial statement somewhere. I bought XJT on a hunch. I'm not sour about it at all and there's no reason to sell it with it being so low. Like I said I'm still doing well overall. However the market is at high tide and yet XJT keeps sinking more. If it can't make money now with everyone in the industry making money then it's future doesn't look too bright. Of course things can change in the drop of a hat and I hope they do. FYI I only have a couple individual stocks. My per diem checks go into index funds. When the market took a dive a month ago I bought the Brazilian one and have made over 20% since then. No idea how long I plan on holding onto that one. It's my 401k that's just making me want to toss up in my mouth. I thought those people were suppose to be good.

 

I just need to say that I agree with most of you on XJT future. It has definatly not bottomed out yet, and I don't see a bottom occuring in the near future. Last quater's reported earnings had a negitive cash flow, which definatly makes share holders nervous. I would hold out until the next earnings are announced, if we see a positive cash flow, we may see a turn around. For those of you who follow the technical trends, I wouldn't look at this thing until the RSI cross 30, and with that, I would still consider it to be risky move.

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.

 

Isn't that what investment advice is? A personal opinion?

 

Three words E-W-Z Bought that little gem over a year ago and haven't looked back.

 

On a hunch? How'd you find out about it? Why that one?

 

Its better because it provides flexibility. I'm sure CAL enjoys the pay check and I'm sure XJT enjoys the flexibility leasing provides. At this stage of the game, the name of the game for XJT is cash flow. And the more liquid you can keep your assets the better. A little more expensive, yes. But a hell of a lot easier to work with. Can you borrow against an asset, yes. But now all that money I "saved" buying vs. leasing is lost in interest expense from those loans I took out that were secured with aircraft. It's how a lot of the airlines ended up in horrible D/E positions the last few years. Remember, a $20 million airplane is not worth $20 million. It's only worth what you can sell it for.

As far as the stock being down, its not just XJT. The entire airline industry has been sliding which is not hard to figure out when you look at oil prices and the hints of recession floating around out there.

And FYI, in 2006 (the last period that data is available) XJT spent $332,441,000 on aircraft leases. That works out to about $100,000 per aircraft per month. I'm surprised you invest in individual stocks if you don't know how to find and read a 10-K report.

 

Read an article about how Brazil was on track to become energy independent in 2 years, saw where energy prices were going, saw the economic numbers looking up since Brazil got inflation under control, etc etc. I don't buy stuff on a hunch. When you're bored with airport appreciation, it's a good time to go dig through financial websites.