Ok, lets skip all the pleasantries...
 

How likely is it that I will have a job this fall?:confused:

Should I look into another job? or going back to school?:confused:

Sidenote: Ive been flying for ASA since last fall...:(

How far are you up from the bottom?

Don't start making rash decisions on the basis that something bad MIGHT happen...

I think Im at least 100 up from the bottom, most likely more, but that is a safe number...

There are no safe numbers. Just keep plugging along and make contingency plans.

I only meant safe as in good estimate of seniority.

How many airplanes do you have? Are they properly staffed? Is their any word of losing any airplanes? I use that those parameters. However, some things are hard to predict..

I am 200+ from the bottom at RAH and we still have airplanes coming .... as if that really matters... but I feel fairly safe.... but you just never know in this biz, I know of VERY few pilots who havent been furloughed at some point in their career...... it happens, NOT PLEASANT but it does happen. Make plans but dont over react just yet.

A word of caution. Just because you have airplanes coming doesn't mean you will actually get them. Airlines have been known to either sell their delivery slots or actual airframes once taking delivery. I wouldn't count on those aircraft until you see them on your ramp in your colors.

In early 2001 I was #4997 out of #6076 at US Airways. I had 1079 pilots junior to me. (About 18% of the pilot group)

I was furloughed from March of 2002 and offered recall in October 2007.

Find a plan "B" that has nothing to do with aviation.

I know what you mean. I wasn't trying to be a smart a$$. But in this business there are never any certainties. Just keep plugging along. Changes are sure to come but you can't change what you can't change. I am not crazy about my own situation, but by sticking it out I have moved up nicely and have a pretty decent resume. I hope it'll pay off.

If you see the writing on the wall, get the resumé polished and go for some interviews.

I'd been here at ASA for a year now and I know there is about 300+ behind me. I had been wondering the same about where you could feel somewhat safe. I'm marketable in other fields and have all sorts of safety nets so Im not too worried about it. Something I had mentioned in another thread which helps to let me sleep a little better is that ASA to the best of my knowledge has never since they started service in 1979 furloughed a pilot. They also have had a pretty good record when it comes to financial reporting in which the first year in service was the only year they had ever come up short. I believe there is something to be said about that as Im not really sure where they stand in comparison to other regionals when it comes to that sort of thing. Granted times are significantly different now and we all expect some interesting changes this year I think ASA will be one of the regionals left standing with minimal damage when the dust settles. But what do I know Im still just a rookie.:cool:

Do you want to fly for ASA for the rest of your life??


If the answer is yes, you should stay right where you are. Oil prices are out of control, but I think being NOT at the bottom of a seniority list is the best place to be.


If you aspire to fly for the majors one day (which you may have to seeing the rate that regionals are cutting flights), then you should go to college and get your four year college degree. The odds of getting hired at a major airline without a four year college degree are near zero.

Yea I have a degree in Aviation Science (mistake). But I minored in business management, so if poop hits the fan it wouldnt take me very long to get another bachelor's in management.

Well if they offer LOA's, I'd be all over it. Take that time to become super-marketable in something else!

If they offer LOA's I won't be one of the ones accepting it. If they don't cancel my upgrade class (so short on EMB CA's there's basically no shot in ........., I think there are only around 15 or 20 reserve CA’s in the entire system and most of them will get soft lines) there are over 75 CA's JR to me that will be displaced back to FO before me. By the time they get to me it will be months after I've been on line and by then I'll be around my 1000PIC (seeing I already have some TPIC time) mark and will be fine with the bump back to FO. That just means I'll be home more.

Then when the push turns for the good I’ll be sitting in a good place. At least this is my plan, if it doesn’t happen then I’ll just stay as a decently senior FO who is in no threat of being furloughed (something list 140+ a/c would have to be parked before I'd start to sweat, but it could happen, if it did then we ALL IN TROUBLE) and I’ll continue getting my 16-18 days off all while being home every day. Hmmmmmmm, what to do?

As for the original poster, only you can decide what’s best for you but I’m optimistically pessimistic about the future. In other words I believe it won’t be anywhere near as bad as most are saying but it won’t be anywhere near as good as it has been.

ASA is not going top stop hiring, but will slow way down. Thats the latest...

ASA's a good company but with 108 CR2's flying DAL routes, I wouldn't be surprised if they start pooling with new hire classes being put on the back burner until oil prices start to fall............considerably. But, I don't see furloughing, Jerry and friends are really good at have decent foresight.

I am glad I am working for a Prop shop with some decent senority, makes me feel a little better

I'm going to start a company that offsets the "carbon footprint" of the airlines, and lobby for legislation that locks them into years of lucrative contracts where I promise to plant trees and educate people on "living green". Oh wait, my name isn't Al Gore.

....
 

The above statement is one of the smartest things i've read on this forum, because that's exactly what I did and i've never looked back. Medical business is BOOMING, and I fly a Pitts for fun. Pi$$ on the airlines.

We should all be so lucky to work for Prop-shops!!

If only I were good at something, anything, else...!

Six months ago a prop guy would have taken that statement as sarcasm. Funny how things change so quickly.

You're never safe.

You know it :eek:

I wasn't good at -
 

my present PROFESSION until I went back to college after 9/11/01. Now, I'm sitting on an ATP/MEL with 11,000 plus hours and a type rating-and a VERY lucrative medical career which is recession and furlough proof. You guys that already have degrees, believe it or not, those degrees are VALUABLE. You can go on from there to an advanced degree like I did, and have life on your terms.

I was STUPID. I thought hard work and spotless credentials would get me to the major airline job that I had dreamed of, instead, the reality was that if I had HAPPENED to meet the right S.O.B., and brown-nosed him enough so that he /she would lie and say that I was the greatest pilot, and that they had known me my whole life-then I'd have made it there, credentials and hard work be damned.

Now, the fruits of my hard work are paying me BANK!, and I work as much or as little as I want, no a$$ kissing, no recommendation, no nothing-except my PROFESSIONAL LISCENSE.

As for flying, I fly a Pitts S2c FOR FUN now. Yes, I said it-FUN.

Dont think you are trapped-cause you're not, unless you want to be.


It's hard to beat an EDUCATED person.

What is it that you studied/do? I'd be interested to hear it. PM if you want.

...
 

I went to med school.

Career Change?
 

You know I write similar things here all the time and get beaten up for it.

SkyHigh

LOL...I'm a junior in college, a biology major, have the flying bug bad, and am trying to decide between an airline career and going to med school. I have the grades, the volunteer stuff, the shadowing, etc... I have talked to like 5 doctors who basically said you are crazy for wanting to be a doctor. They had very good reasons behind their comments, and during several shadowing experiences I have gotten to see first hand what they are talking about. Then there is APC where people (like SkyHigh) who say you are crazy for wanting an airline career. As much as SkyHigh gets bashed on here, he actually makes some very good points that are extremely thought provoking for a person in a situation like mine. I have absolutely no clue which side of the fence I will land on. Isn't APC wonderful?

Well,
 

Just take the advice for what's it is worth to you. No one is trying to crush your dreams here, this site is supposed to be about pilots helping pilots. My experience is what it is, so is Skyhigh's. Truth be told, if 9/11 hadn't happened, I might be still spinning along, trapped in the go-no-where, LOW pay, miserable life at AE, waiting for the NO THRU agreement, and being sh!t on by my Simmons/Flagship/E.T. Mafia/Mainline AA pilot brothers on a daily basis. (the sheep in east texas are STILL scared).

I don't hate my life anymore. I enjoy helping people who are hurt and need help-sure there is b.s. to put up with here too, sometimes people die, drug seekers, and the like. But the BIG difference is that I get PAID like a professional should get paid. All that hard work and sacrifice that I put into my flying-in the ultimate end meant nothing. It was a big point of pride, in that I worked my way up through the ranks with ZERO help from anyone. But, pride goeth before a fall.

Lots of people on here don't want to hear what veterans like me, Skyhigh, and others here have to say on this scam industry. But, I wish I had had someone give me as good advice back in the day. Don't be a sucker! Get your head out of the sand and look around. $100.00 plus oil, age 65, and the like are all subtle clues about where the airlines are headed. You would never launch on a 200, 1/2 destination without an alternate would you? Then you sure as he!! better not "launch" your aviation career without an alternate plan either.

Just my $.02

btw Today I took a 2 hour lunch and flew the Pitts-what a BLAST! Have fun fellows!

So let me ask this, why are you posting on an airline pilots website, being that you are not a professional pilot anymore? There are plenty of medical forums out there and since you still fly the pitts, plenty of sport pilot forums. Also maybe your first mistake in choosing your aviation career was going to a company like A.E., Just my $.02

...
 

Hey Skyhigh-i'm takin' a shot at your title bro-:D

Scam Industry
 

You are doing a good job.

Some here would like to censor yours and my message on this forum but people need to know. I wish the reality of aviation was different and we all could enjoy living the dream job but for most the dream is unattainable. And, the future is not filled with promise. It is wise to see the world as it is and not how we wish it to be.

I love my new life outside of aviation. Today looks like a good day. I think I will terrorize the skies in my 150.

SkyHigh

Until you see companies like Mesa and Pinnacle raise their mins to 1000/100, and call 1500/500 competitive, I think you're pretty safe finding another job after being furloughed.

It may not be glamourous, or even worth it, that's your call.

On the other hand, it's hard to compare this to the 2001 recession. In that case, it was 727's being parked and RJ's being produced. The result was that there were more jobs available, just lower pay. Now that RJ's are being parked, who knows.

You know I've gone back and read your previous posts about life in this business and the reason, as I see it, that you get slammed is because your tone is so negative and downer that its really rather boring to read. At least Mr. Scarface there has an underlying uplifting tone while still relaying the same type of information. Someone who claims to be so smart for getting out and moving on to their own business should easily be able to spot that without someone like me telling you. Oh well.

Negative?
 

I am not negative. I am sure that when the Titanic was sinking a few helpful individuals went about the ship to tell everyone. I am also sure that a few smirked saying that they were being "negative".

I have a different perspective because unlike many here I have lived on both sides of the fence. My experiences have lead me to a different understanding of the industry we all have chosen.

SkyHigh

Well I certainly give you props for getting out and moving on if that works for you. More power to you. Problem is just because you say you're not negative doesn't mean its true. There is a reason folks are reacting the way they do to you on this site. Facts are facts and its in plain site print right here. But if it makes you feel better thinking you're not, go for it.

Skyhigh changes his tune a lot and many of his so called facts I think are embellishments. For example:

"To those with a commercial license in their back pocket and a degree on the wall I say, press on! They have already paid the price of entry. A sound path would be at least to put your cards on the table for a time and see what happens."

Skyhigh 3-14-08

But this thread it's:

"I am not negative. I am sure that when the Titanic was sinking a few helpful individuals went about the ship to tell everyone"

He speaks as though he owns a crystal ball though no one can really predict the futue. I think it's great he warns the 18 year olds but his constant bashing of a career that he hasn't been a part of since National airlines (anybody remember them?) is pretty weak.

But, hey, everybody gets to have a voice here. That's what makes APC such a great place.

Don't leave bruh!!! Stick it out.



atp

ALL I can say is I feel sorry for people lke you!! Your probally a person who just complains about everything. We dont need people on here or in the cockpit with bad attitudes, your a mood killer for everyone. I for one and I am sure alot of other people on this forum love what they do, and we have realized with the good comes the bad sometimes. Wait till the goverment takes over your great health care buiness, then tell us how great you new life is.