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UAL can't really go into BK. They already have and those aircraft are already spoken for to their largest creditor. If they go into CH 11 now they won't have anything to bargain with.
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The way the situation is being set up, they could however threaten CH 7.
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Originally Posted by TonyWilliams
(Post 396807)
Southwest isn't going to let gates sit idle. And, like in the past, WN will pick up the slack.
even southwest has cut back growth expectations. |
If there is another round of bankruptcies it'll be a bloodbath like never before seen. I have buddies at United and they are so beaten down that some say they'd just as soon see the company go out of business than cut pay and benefits further. And I think the companies know it. It won't be endless Ch. 11. It'll be right to liquidation for some if it really comes to that.
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I may **** off fosters again for posting "insider information"...but since its pubically available information I'm gonna post it anyway:
UAL ALPA small jet scope... 1-K-22 “Small Jets" means (a) Jet Aircraft that are certificated in the United States of America for seventy (70) or fewer seats and a maximum permitted gross takeoff weight of less than eighty thousand (80,000) pounds and (b) up to eighteen (18) specific aircraft with certificated seating capacity in excess of seventy (70) seats operated by Feeder Carrier Air Wisconsin Airlines Corp. ("AWAC"). These eighteen aircraft are identified as the "AWAC Quota" Currently, the AWAC Quota is filled by BAe-146 aircraft with the following tail numbers: N463AP, N179US, N181US, N183US, N606AW, N607AW, N608AW, N609AW, N610AW, N611AW, N612AW, N614AW, N615AW, N616AW, N290UE, N291UE, N292UE, and N156TR. AWAC may replace any aircraft within the AWAC Quota with: (i) any other BAe-146 or AVRO 85 aircraft each with no more passenger seats than were carried in the actual operation of the replaced aircraft, or (ii) any other aircraft with a maximum certificated seating capacity in the United States of eighty-five (85) seats and a maximum certificated gross takeoff weight in the United States of up to ninety thousand (90,000) pounds. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 396678)
This will probably mean stability, or even growth, at the UAX regionals.
They are parking alll 737s. They still want to grow international. They will still need feed for international. The feed is going to have to come from somewhere... |
Originally Posted by Superpilot92
(Post 396898)
even southwest has cut back growth expectations.
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Originally Posted by Flex81
(Post 397001)
An RJ is not profitable at the current price/barrel of oil. 50 seats are profitable up to around $50/ barrel; 70 seaters are profitable up to $70/ barrel; and 130 seaters are profitable up to $130/ barrel. This of course is with the current ticket prices and nearly full aircraft. Any aircraft with less than 120-130 seats and has jet engines is not profitable from A to B (right now) even with full loads. RJ's will still have their place in some markets, but I would expect to see a lot of capacity dropped on the regional side. Why united didn't start with the regionals is beyond me.
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Originally Posted by ToiletDuck
(Post 396847)
UAL can't really go into BK. They already have and those aircraft are already spoken for to their largest creditor. If they go into CH 11 now they won't have anything to bargain with.
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Originally Posted by Flex81
(Post 397001)
An RJ is not profitable at the current price/barrel of oil. 50 seats are profitable up to around $50/ barrel; 70 seaters are profitable up to $70/ barrel; and 130 seaters are profitable up to $130/ barrel. This of course is with the current ticket prices and nearly full aircraft. Any aircraft with less than 120-130 seats and has jet engines is not profitable from A to B (right now) even with full loads. RJ's will still have their place in some markets, but I would expect to see a lot of capacity dropped on the regional side. Why united didn't start with the regionals is beyond me.
Neither RJ or 737 is profitable under current conditions. If you have less than 100 pax, a 737 probably cannot be profitable without massive fare increases. If you fill up an RJ, AND raise fares sufficiently the RJ might be profitable. This assumes that they will replace each 737 with only one, or possibly two RJ's. A 150-seat 737 will be more economical than three 50-seat RJ's under any circumstances. But if you have fewer than 150 pax, then RJ's start to look better. Nothing is going to work with much less than 50 pax, unless it has propellors. |
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