History has shown it's easier to axe a wholly owned. No court, no questions asked. At least with Skywest, ASA, and Pinnacle, they would have huge court battles to fight, because it would be "company vs. company."

It's a touchy subject and I wish no one a job loss, but it would seem that the most cost efficient and painless option for Delta as a company (but not for pilots) would be:

Dissolve Comair & dump Mesa

Give XJs 900s away to Skywest, ASA, and Pinnacle

Use Compass as a flowback relief valve for NWA would-be furloughs

Use Mesaba for EAS lift in the Saabs

History has also shown that oil prices were far lower. Todays prices are forcing a game plan change. Why artificially prop up a contract carrier with a cost plus agreement, paying for their fuel and insulating them from this volatile market... therefore ensuring profitability at said carrier? Why do that when they can grow the wholly owned, spread the costs out further and collect the profits if there happened to be some.

The ways of the past are gone. A year ago I would have believed Mesaba and Compass (and Comair, Eagle etc...) would have been quickly spun off to raise cash once the growth stopped. Just like Pinnacle and ASA were. Today, it's a different story and I think the mainlines will shift their focus towards wholly owned regional partners and limit their exposure to cost plus agreements where possible.

On the issue of consolidation however... at least with the new Delta I can see Comair and Mesaba merging, or at least Comair falling under the MCHoldings umbrella. If there are indeed furloughs at NWA and a near flush of the list over at Compass I could see NWA selling those 175s in an asset sale, like Mid Atlantic. This creates cash (or at least breaking even) as well as mitigating all the costs of retraining the "new" Compass seniority list. IF they don't furlough, Compass would plug away as status quo apart of McHoldings.

I agree with your analysis. Your analysis is logical in light of the environment majors are operating in right now.

I think you are the one everyone warns about turning every thread into my regional will survive at any cost type. Your wishful thinking is so far removed from reality, it only makes you out to be a vindictive toad.
From a purely business standpoint, DAL would not shift all CRJ900 flying to Skywest, when Skywest is already too big as it is as a regional. Your statement lacks any semblance of logic or credibility. Why would DAL destroy Mesaba if they are interested in selling it in the first place? Who would buy a regional which has no CRJ900 flying but left only with Saabs.

At any case, from a business point I agree with the assessment that wholly owned regionals like Compass and Mesaba and Comair will grow in the near future. Only exception I see is Pinnacle. I see DAL giving DAL regional flying to Pinnacle and gradually shifting away from contract feeder regionals.