Whacker77

Spoke to an Eagle pilot yesterday. He's about 100 from the bottom of the list. His understanding is that attrition at Eagle is still about 30 a month. I didn't question him on that, but I found that a bit hard to believe. I know that 30 a month was occuring in the early spring, but is that still the case today? If it is still the case, it doesn't sound like they'll have to furlough anyone if people keep leaving.

ExperimentalAB

It wouldn't surprise me if all those older AA guys were making up the bulk of that number in retirements LoL...but in all honestly I find 30/mo to be a bit on the high side, ESPECIALLY at a career Airline.

tpersuit

I wouldn't be too shocked if it is that high. Eagle is about the same size as ExpressJet and we've been seeing attrition of 25+ every month this year. July alone is going to be close to 50 pilots for us. Maybe people are just giving up with this industry with the latest downturn.

Pontius Pilot

When you consider the number of pilots Eagle has, its really not that high of a number. Figure that people are retiring because they choose to, people lose medicals, others are quitting in disgust, some are seeking other jobs, etc. 20 to 30 a month wouldn't be outside the realm of highly likely. It would be nice to know the exact numbers though...just to satisfy curiosities.

Mason32

Oh, that's the real number all right. The latest company emails projected 30 per month through the end of summer, then slowing down to 15 per month during the fall. Their email said that if that trend held, the job to be eliminated would be paper only, no real furloughs.... loss of available positions;yes.... loss of people... no.

JetJock16

Eagle, XJT and SKW are all about the same size but 50 pilots? I completely believe you but where are they all going. Sure some are choosing other careers, some are retiring and some are moving on; but at 25+ per month with spikes up near 50 in this economic environment? The airlines aren’t the only one’s hurting.

Here at SKW I've only moved up 438 spots in 29 months. That's an average of only 15 per month and I'm sure there were a few months that spiked around 20-25 over that last 2 years but no higher. Even if you add in the FO's behind me I can't imagine it being more than 18 per month on average. A good friend of mine was hired in Nov., to date only has 182 pilots behind him and has only moved up 139 spots, that’s only an attrition rate of 17.3 per month and he's well over 1000 pilots behind me.

So with that attrition rate, if it continues, I don’t see the need to furlough many and those who do get F’d I don’t see them being gone for long.

Good luck all.

atpcliff

Hi!

There are thousands of pilot job jobs available now, and many airlines that are begging for pilots. AAEagle pilots can leave and get a much better job tommorrow.

I personally know that Pinnacle, for example, was losing LOTS of guys to Emirates in the last year.

The Asian aviation economy is in massive expansion mode.

For example, ever heard of Etihad? I had barely, until now. They are touring the US, desperately trying to find pilots for the 100 widebodies they just ordered.

cliff
GRB

DON*T HATE ERAU

25 a month is right on... it was more earlier this year but it has definately slowed down. I predict about 15 a month during the 4th quater of 2008 and first quater of 2009.

tpersuit

Yeah i was shocked when i heard it too. I guess our base closings at LAX, ONT, and SAT might have something to do with it. Plus Southwest and some other carriers still are taking some of our pilots.

Our planning guy said we had 25 pilots gone as of the 15th so 50 was definetely on the pace. Losing the Delta and Branded operations really hurt our moral.

Eagle pilots probably are leaving for similar reasons as well because the chance at upgrade was just slashed.

Whacker77

Wow, I'm surprised to see that attrition is so high. I do have a good friend who is a captain at UPS and he is from the Caribbean. He told me there is a shortage of pilots all over the world, just not in the US. So I guess it makes sense that many might be headed to Emirates and other places like that.

I wouldn't want to paint an optimistic picture based on attrition due to moral problems, but at least those who don't want to be furloughed aren't going to be furloughed. If someone chooses to leave flying, that's different from being forced out of flying. If you couple this news with declining oil, maybe a few airlines will be forced to resume hiring sooner than previously thought.

I know, I know. Optimism is a bad thing.