"Under the current rule, an estimated 30,000 pilots would have to retire over the next decade, according to the WSJ."

I dont know how many pilots are working at the majors, if its around 50000 say.. i still think 30000 pilots is a lot.

heres the source:

WSJ: FAA Likely To Retire Age-60 Rule

 

I completely agree ... assuming our economy here doesn't just keep plummeting into a steeper downward spiral over the next few years, we should be seeing some drastic changes in the economy and the aviation industry...

Everyone that has been alive for 15 years knows that our economy goes through cycles ... right now we are in a deep trough, and the worst trough we have seen since the Great Depression (although I'm not convinced that this isn't just as bad as the Great Depression taking inflation into account). Not to get into politics here, but our country is in more debt than ever before (the figgin debt clock in NY ran out of room to keep counting!!). But, over the next few years, hopefully we can start pulling out of this, and start crawling back towards another crest in the cycle.

If/when this happens, our economy will boom once again, and this should be right around the time when all the age 65 guys start retiring. What happens then? BOOM!! We see a hiring spree much like (if not better than) 2007. All of the major airline will be pulling guys from the regional level with several thousand hours to come work, and then the regionals will have to replenish their own pilots and the hiring boom begins.

One can only hope that this is how things will turn out!

 

time for the amero to do its thing. get rid of the u.s. dollar =/

 

It seems to me that many of the older pilots have already taken an early retirement in fear of losing it if they held on. Another thing to consider about the age 65 rule is that it effectively increases a pilots career at a major from an average of 20 to 25 years to 25 to 30 years. Assuming that the majors do not grow it most likely will result in a reduction in the total amount of pilots that a company needs to hire over a career by nearly 20%.

SkyHigh

 

I bet oil will be cheap too!!! 2012 is where it is at

 

I sincerely hope you were being sarcastic, because I have no doubt that this could happen, and if that doesnt scare the bejesus out of you, you need to get real informed real quick, you think your pay is undervalued now? HA, dont worry if it does happen youll be better off unemployed, the government handouts off the back of the american workers will be much higher than what youll make working hard for a living. Just talk to anyone living in spain when the euro came about, when all their investments transfered they were undervalued, but hey its not like the economy is based off of investments in the stock market right? But hopefully OUR COUNTRY, not just OUR ECONOMY can recover, right now seems the economy is more important then our country as a whole, I post this not to be purely political but if you think about all this it can effect when this nation will truly recover and we can all get back to doing what we love for a least a decent salary. I sincerely hope the recovery is soon, for all of us who love to fly

 

Guess you should have gotten a real job where you support your hobby. Living in the past is no way to resurrect it.

 

If you love your job, what does your comment have to do with anything?! Get over yourself and if you don't like your job, leave. The pay might suck, but it's comments like yours that just make it difficult!

 

The pilot “shortage” over the last 2.5 years was a shortage of pilots willing to work for regional wages therefore it was all at the regional level (mainline was furloughing / drizzle hiring). The push that’s about to happen will almost completely be driven by mainline which will drain the regionals to a point that they will be forced to accept pilots with wet CPL’s again. The only question will be how many pilots. I remember reading a report back in early 07 that said almost 35% of the industry will be forced to retire by 2011……….now that’s been pushed back to 2016 with the age 60 rule being change to 65 (Band-Aid). That same report stated that American Airlines is the most senior followed by NWA. I understand that not all of the retirements will come from the Majors/Legacies but with somewhere around 65K+ pilots at those airlines (UAL, AA, DAL/NWA, US, CAL, SWA, Alaska, Airtran, Frontier, VA, Hawaiian, JB, UPS, FedEx, etc) we’re looking at a need (if things stay at our current levels) for over 22K pilots. Where are they going to come from? Mainly the regionals who don’t even have 22K flying for them. Add to the equation that the regionals will also be retiring many of their own pilots and you can see that by 2016 things could get very ugly………a true pilot shortage might actually occur……..? That is if our economy rebounds, which will eventually happen.

I also was told some very interesting statistics about American by a current AA CA. He said (take it for what it’s worth) that AA is set to retire more than 4,200 pilots from the current list (furloughs included) by 2016 and that 80+% of their seniority list is over 40 years of age; also that the youngest pilot on their list is 33 years old. That means that if you can get hired with AA when the doors open, you could be 40% up the list in 5 years and Maybe (?) a CA shortly thereafter. Now if you get hired on the back side of the serge, say in 2016 and beyond, you’ll wind up on reserve for years with very very little movement. You'll probably be furloughed a few times since there is now 40% of the pilot group sitting right in front of you and you won't upgrade to CA for 15 to 20+ years now that your pilot group is much younger. If you get stuck on the back side of the push it will more than likely a better decision to stay at your current airline (probably moved up quickly do to the push) than move on. Those who are hired near the end at the regional level are in for a very long and very frustrating career on or near the bottom.

PS. Keep in mind that many things may and will cause the actual numbers to go up or down.

 

I dunno, too good to be true, if I ever get to CAL, I'll probably be too old and crusty to appreciate it/enjoy it

I think the gov't and the airlines will do every thing they can to prevent a shortage, I bet we would see Newspaper/TV ads for "BECOME AN AN AIRLINE PILOT via the newest and greatest program ..............MPL" much like what you see for the Devry Technical school commercials.

Although if Age 65 never happened and the economy at least stayed where it was it would have been great for Pilots, however thats like saying if I won the lottery I would be rich............

So much changes in such little time, one thing for sure is 9/11 has taught these airlines how to run razor thin staffing models and get away with it