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-   -   When the hiring begins (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/36357-when-hiring-begins.html)

name10135 02-02-2009 12:08 AM

You should try the Holiday Inn @ JFK.

The name sounds nice, but the mold, cockroaches, bedbugs, and greasy spoon restaurant will have you singing a different tune.

NZAV8R 02-02-2009 10:15 PM

ok not to dampen anyone's outlook for the foreseeable future, but the financial forecast for the next year, or three, is shaping up to be the financial equivalent of a cat 5 hurricane; it's out there somewhere and could be heading our way soon. what the economy is experiencing right now is the equivalent of a tropical storm-nothing too devastating, yet.... however, another three years things could be quite different. what I'm saying is that what the av industry is encountering is not just typical cyclic downturn. the shape of the industry could look very different in a few years; the industry may have downsized considerably by then. if things get really bad, unless the gov't bails out the whole industry, then some big players may no longer be around to be hiring. there is talk that the economy could take 5 years to recover. so when taking into account the predicted increase in the number of pilots retiring in 5 years (of those still employed, that is), as the age 65 rule buffer runs it's course by around early 2012 , then depending on the level of the economic recovery there may or may not be a huge hiring frenzy at that time. so until then it's a wait and see game.

jayray2 02-02-2009 11:10 PM


Originally Posted by NZAV8R (Post 550903)
there is talk that the economy could take 5 years to recover

There is a lot of different talk about a lot of different things. Like all the talk about $250 barrels of oil about 8 months ago. Or the talk back in the 70's of an impending ice age. I don't believe all the talk I hear.

HercDriver130 02-03-2009 04:17 AM

All this TALK got us into this mess. Was there underlying weakness ...probably... but when the media preached for two solid years of the looming recession and how bad it would be... no wonder that the vast majority of Americans and others worldwide have curtailed SPENDING. FYI.... SPENDING by consumers accounts for 70 PERCENT of our economy.... and when the media and their masters succeeded in convincing everybody that the economy was headed in the toilet... guess what... self fulfilling prophecy. This economy wont get better until people start spending money. Which NOW that we really ARE in a recession is difficult.

Rnav 02-03-2009 08:40 AM

This is a serious question I've been wondering about lately. If there in fact is a hiring spree in a few years will we see increased wages, or will it be like last year lower requirements(hours, wet tickets) that will help fill the empty seats? I'm not sure what good is a hiring spree if the reality is no pay increases??? Its all speculation at this point, but I'm wondering if the career will be better or worse in a couple of years?

waflyboy 02-03-2009 08:52 AM


Originally Posted by Rnav (Post 551160)
If there in fact is a hiring spree in a few years will we see increased wages, or will it be like last year lower requirements(hours, wet tickets) that will help fill the empty seats?

Probably higher hiring mins and about the same wages. (Lots of qualified guys on the street who will probably want back in at some point.)


Originally Posted by Rnav (Post 551160)
I'm not sure what good is a hiring spree if the reality is no pay increases??? Its all speculation at this point, but I'm wondering if the career will be better or worse in a couple of years?

I guess it depends on how you define "better." There might be a few additional jobs.... but I suspect they'll mostly be on regional jets!

I believe those who are optimistic about industry conditions over the next 3 years or so are set up to be disappointed. I'd love to be wrong about that.

PittsburghDude 02-03-2009 09:01 AM


Originally Posted by HercDriver130 (Post 550945)
All this TALK got us into this mess. Was there underlying weakness ...probably... but when the media preached for two solid years of the looming recession and how bad it would be... no wonder that the vast majority of Americans and others worldwide have curtailed SPENDING. FYI.... SPENDING by consumers accounts for 70 PERCENT of our economy.... and when the media and their masters succeeded in convincing everybody that the economy was headed in the toilet... guess what... self fulfilling prophecy. This economy wont get better until people start spending money. Which NOW that we really ARE in a recession is difficult.


i agree totally. if the media would start tomorrow saying that things are starting to get better, im sure spending would increase.

HercDriver130 02-03-2009 09:23 AM

Ah.....but the doom and gloom "sells".... good news rarely does.....

For that matter... they have to keep up the doom and gloom for awhile... wouldnt want it to magically switch from bad to good with the incoming administration....that would look..... well.....too political.

RadarP3C 02-03-2009 09:41 AM


Originally Posted by HercDriver130 (Post 551203)
Ah.....but the doom and gloom "sells".... good news rarely does.....

For that matter... they have to keep up the doom and gloom for awhile... wouldnt want it to magically switch from bad to good with the incoming administration....that would look..... well.....too political.


LOL ... or to keep the economy in the spotlight so folks won't bash the incoming administration. Just wondering when the honeymoon will end.

USMCFLYR 02-03-2009 09:49 AM

Mod note:

Please don't let this thread start to drift into the political realm. Let's refocus on the original question: When the hiring boom begins.......

USMCFLYR

Rnav 02-03-2009 11:06 AM


There might be a few additional jobs.... but I suspect they'll mostly be on regional jets!
Yeah, that would be just pointless for the guys/girls now paying their dues at the regionals. There needs to be mass hiring at the major level in the up swing for everyone to benefit. I'm sure they'll be some type of greater hiring at the major level. Question is how much?

Just hope for everyone's sake that the regionals don't keep taking more mainline flying and their jobs with them...

MAXforwardspeed 02-03-2009 11:59 AM

You guys with CFI’s are forgetting about what the government wants to do. The MCL (Multi Crew License) is coming soon. Future job openings will be coming it just won’t be a experienced pilot in that seat.

The MPL would see trainees moving into the right seat of high-performance jet transports with just 240 hr. of instruction. Of this, only between 60 and 120 hr. might actually be in the air and the student would have performed just 12 takeoffs and landings in the type he or she is to fly. The MPL is designed to bypass the training for the current commercial pilot certificate with instrument rating.

What will the pay be? $20 an hour or a summer job?

Shortcut or Fast Track?

Rnav 02-03-2009 12:29 PM

Was actually very hopeful that the upswing in a couple years would bring higher salarys. It is ICAO, who knows if it'll happen here in the states???

This program makes the fast-track schools look slow. This program probably has the SJS crowd salivating...:rolleyes:


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