When the hiring begins
 

Can you imagine what a mad house it will be when one of the regionals makes the announcement they are hiring again? Lets say Eagle is the first, and resumes in November. With the amount of guys out of work from CFI to Freight Dog, to GV and Widebody Captains, your gonna see thousands of resumes to fill what...Maybe 50-100 new hire slots at most?

With the amount of resumes that HR will receive, if there has ever been a time for uses "boxes checked, and boxes unchecked" to weed people out, than this is it....Make yourself as competitive as can be, because unlike the past two years, you are in fact competing for this position.

goodluck all

It will be like that at first, then as the 65ers start to retire, it'll go back to a mad house.

I really hope your right.......

Not sure if I see a "G-V or a widebody captain" applying at Eagle or any regional. For guys who've been flying long range business jets and/or widebody jets, the thought of working for a regional must be a scary proposition...... when you got bills to pay, all of that goes out the window I guess

First year pay at the regionals doesn't qualify to pay the bills, especially if you've been working as a Gulfstream captain. Even as an EMB captain, I know I wouldn't go back to another regional to start over again if I lost my job, I'd find something else. Just not worth it in my opinion....

GMC closed their flight department, every pilot got furloughed, some of those guys were pulling down $140K flying the Gulfstreams. You are right, those guys would probably give up aviation before going back to a regional. But its not all about the money, its about ego as well, "I'm too experienced for that" and that type of thing.

Then there's the QOL issue; great QOL they had as corporate pilots, they got axed, and now they're going to a regional??? No, I just don't see it happening

Also, wouldn't a regional be more likely to hire a 1000-2000 hour pilot with little jet experience versus a 10,000 hour 757 type rated captain? While the later is more experienced, the former is cheaper?

Oh your managment potential your already looking at the bottom line:rolleyes:

just kidding... unfortunately yes

The Payscales are established, cheaper means nothing to them. If you've got 10k hrs, and another guy has 1k hrs, both are the same as far as the company is concerned. Might be happier to hire the lower time pilot just because they don't have turbine PIC time yet, if you hire the widebody captain, and the majors start hiring again, or recalling, then those guys have the opportunity to go back to their old jobs.

We only wish our experience would correspond with our pay, but the truth is much less enjoyable. once we're passed insurance minimums, or hiring minimums, we're all the same in the company's eyes.

Nope they aren't the same. The 1000 hour guy isn't going anywhere for a couple years. The former 757 captain is bailing in 6 weeks if something better comes along, taking the 35K in training costs with him unrecouped.

They will all get paid the same. The question is will the 757 driver actually go to a regional. They did the last time they got furloughed, but many friends of mine who were previously furloughed are looking elsewhere and no one is going back to the regionals. Also, it won't be a 757 Captain rather than a typed FO getting furloughed.

We had a former AA captain in my new hire classes at Eagle. He was forced out because of the age 60 thing, then decided to get back in when it was raised to 65. I can't even imagine...he must have a lot of ex-wives to pay alimony to or one hell of a gambling debt.

All of the above. I had a mentor tell my that unless the hoochie is worth $8k a month in alimony don't go for it. Great advice. Of course, there is an old saying that says if it floats, flies or ........, rent it. Its cheaper.

Hi!

Regionals hiring now: GoJet, Great Lakes and Lynx. Cape Air is also hiring.

They way things are, at the MIA job fair, it was about a 2 hour wait to get in to talk to Cape Air. The CA recruiter said often he would only get 10 or so resumes, with only a couple with the experience they wanted. He was deluged.

Eagle said they planned to hire in Jul.

A lot of places will start hiring Spring/Summer/Fall.

cliff
GRB

I personally see a much worse outlook as to in the 60 and out days.

Given there are incentives for some pilots to retire prior to 65, there will still be the mass exodus of these pilots regardless...and Congress folded and pushed back the effect we were suppose to feel now to 2010-2011ish.

Couple that move with the spike in oil last year. Couple that with the overall downturn in the economy.

New flight students that are looking for a career in aviation have tapered off about 10% every year since 2006 (internet can back me up on that one...somewhere...somehow...)

Couple that with the bottom feeders in aviation right now...the ones with wet commercials, wet CFIs...there are next to no jobs for them right. Why? They are competing with those who 3 times (or greater) the amount of hours and work experience. The result? They leave the industry and go get a job that pays...cause dreams alone dont pay the bills.

So in sum (for those who wish to skip the ramblings of a self proclaimed "bottom feeder")...lack of new career oriented flight students plus lack of jobs for those attempted to break into the first job plus the now 65 and out effect soon to come...Im not all that optomistic...

I think the key to having a half way decent quality of life is to try and get on with someone halfway decent in the first couple of months of this next up swing. By the time the next down turn comes you can ride the wave as a lineholder or a senior reserve and have a little bit more piece of mind not having to worry about a furlough.

It is going to get crazy (in a good way) but in the meantime it sucks. No jobs for guys to build experience and make a decent living. There is always an upswing and then a downswing... dont think it is ever going to stay one way or the other.

You're certainly right on all accounts....I'm a bottom feeder in the industry now as a semi wet CFI with virtually no students. The strong dream isn't what it used to be.....

All I want is a flying job....cargo, charter, airline, anything and there's nothing...zero. Very frustrating times indeed.

Just keep an open and objective mind. At this point in the field of aviation you have to be willing to grab a job if one comes your way. You may have to take a job to pay the bills now and grab something better when the industry recovers. Also dont let history escape your memory. The industry WILL recover (and NO ONE knows when that will be no matter how much they want to make their opinion's seem to be the right one), so dont let this "slump" make you put off your dream of being a commercial pilot. Perseverance will always pay off in the end...

[quote=newarkblows;549081] By the time the next down turn comes you can ride the wave as a lineholder or a senior reserve and have a little bit more piece of mind not having to worry about a furlough.
quote]
I was a line holder and my ass is on the street. You are never all that safe remember that.

the interesting twist will be this..... by the time the next hiring cycle at several majors kicks in.... lets say oh ... 2 -3 years..... and assuming the mainline type carriers remain essentially the same.... there will probably be on the order of say 1000-2000 jobs each year to account for retirements. NOW..... when that cycle kicks in.... many of the current CA's at regional carriers will have been a capt 3-7 years or more.... and albeit not a GREAT wage... will be making lets say.... 70k+ per year with ( depending on their personal circumstance ) perhaps a decent QOL..... how many will become lifers and stay were they are..... ??? I suspect many of the next group of regional pilots to move on to the mainline carriers to come from the bottom third of the CA's lists.... and of course any and all FO's who can meet the minimums...... what says the group?

If my number comes up in the next couple years to flow to Delta, Buh-bye Mesaba, hopefully hello B73N or A320. Unfortunately CVG will probably be no more in a couple years.

Has a regional pilot group ever received a net benefit from a flow through agreement?

If you got a degree, try to substitute teach. It is a good way to pay the bills.

Its the overall downturn in the economy, not just the industry. That recovery is a while away...its the bigger picture that needs focusing.

All Im getting at is in the next couple of years, there will be a lot of people leaving the industry (the top retires, the bottom didnt want to hang around anymore) and the pilots slated to replace them will be much fewer than what would of happened if 65 didnt go through.

Topic: When the hiring begins...
Answer: ...there will be plenty of openings, but a lacking of pilots

.02

This one of the group agrees. I know at my job, and many others that have decent (all relative) pay/work rules that was the case before this last short lived hiring cycle ended. Sure, there were a few of the guys you're talking about moving on, but the majority going to (insert legacy here) were the more mid level to junior CA's.

I'm waiting for the day the US will be short on pilots. Call me pessimistic but I don't think that'll ever happen. Other countries have such shortages because their aviation regs and the cost of obtaining licenses make it very prohibitive to achieve such goals. The US is very open, on the contrary.

Don't suppose anyone has statistics on number of student pilot certificates issued over the last few years?

I'm guessing it has been steadily dropping off.....

this is the closest I've found...

Airmen Knowledge Test Statistics

Whoa! Only ONE Commercial Airship written was taken in '08??

Hmm......based on those stats, PPL written tests look steady since 2004.

2004:29K
2005:28K
2006:27K
2007:29K
2008:28K

Commercial writtens are actually going up.whoa ???

As far as CFI writtens....seems like since 2004 until 2008, tests are all in the 4000s. Guess doesn't say much.

Don't forget those totals include foreign students. A buddy just signed off another 20+ Chinese students from his Instrument ground school for the written and its already his second wave for 09.

Is there a "grandfather" clause in the new 65 age rule? I thought you were SOL if you were forced out (age 60) before the new 65 rule even if you hadn't reached age 65 yet?

You could come back... just not in your old seniority number... I am pretty sure a group of SWA guys came back to the right seat with NEW seniority numbers... go figure.

We had one guy at Mesaba do that. Though he was and still is management so it really didn't mean much for us on the line....

Ah, good point. I wasn't thinking in those terms. I signed off quite a bit of contract students back when I was instructing, too.

Seems like thats the only way flight schools are making money nowadays

In 1998 there was a total of 618,298 Pilots holding FAA certificates.
In 2007 there was a total of 590,349 pilots holding FAA certificates.

1998 there was 122,053 commercial pilots
2007 there was 143,953 commercial pilots

1998 there was 134,612 ATP pilots
2007 there was 143,953 ATP pilots


If the trend continues there will be less pilots in 2011 than in 1995. Good news if you can hold out. But airlines are aware of this and they are trying hard to degrade the industry. Soon crews will be staying at Motel 8 to save $$$ while the CEO is at the Ritz.

Hey!...We already stay at an Econo Lodge. In one city anyway.

To balance things out, I'm in Rapid City's Holiday Inn. This hotel's great!