Evolution + the Future of our industry.
 

In all seriousness I am getting concerned with the precedent(s) that have been set in the post 9/11 era. I have only been working in this industry for a few years, and I have only been following the industry since I started flying in 2003. The pre-9/11 era is something I am familiar with since I have been around airplanes since I was born (literally born on an air base). There appears to always be a curve for the industry that everyone is one. I guess before I start into an all-out ramble which will turn into a rant; where do we see the industry moving (in general terms) over the next 5 years?

Here are facts that I will say I "know" by no regard for sourcing.

1. New agreements with regionals involve the regionals purchasing ALL airframes AND all fuel. This used to be a mixed basket on the airframes, but all fuel costs were "daddy's" problem. Reminds me of high school when my parents started making me pay for all my stuff. Makes you learn some responsibility and really shows mgmt skills. We can truly see the companies who lack a real group of managers.

2. 50-seat jets are not getting any newer, in fact many are approaching the end of their life-lines. As far as I know the latest service agreements for 50-seat flying only goes to 2020.

3. Mainline mgmt and the flying public likes the big cabin (duh). Scope at majors are just now starting to put up true fences against the 50+ seat infiltration. I am using the latest mainline deal with DL/NWA pilots and the scope that allows the operational need for 50+ seats, yet sets limits to size as well as number. Unfortunately there is not much (if any at some carriers) financial incentive for the 50% passenger/responsibility increases.

4. Age 65. This hit some regionals, although this is by far a cap at the majors. In 5 years how many folks will be retiring? Will they be able to hold a class 1 til 65? Will the FAA raise the age limit to only require the ability to keep a class 1 every 6 months?

5. New pilots. In 2007-2009 I would dare to say that there are more people training for airline jobs. I don't have a study to reference but with high fuel prices of 2006/2007/2008, the high costs for training (and tight lending standards), and earnings forecast for pilots that are meager compared to the upfront investment I couldn't imagine folks lining up at the door. That being said folks are on furlough (and leaving the industry with a foul taste in the mouth), the economic slowdown causing minimal pay/QOL increases, and a lower demand for pilots. Age 65 comes into play as well in keeping opportunity out of majors, regionals, cfi gigs- the domino effect. The 250 hour wonder and bridge program mentality only works when the spots are open to go from point a-z directly.

6. Int'l model. Open skies? regional ops in other countries? I don't know enough to speculate, but I do know this is that voice in the back of the head that makes me think about the scenarios that would effect all US pilots.

Anyone else have some speculative remarks? To not be "Debbie downer" there is a forecast for airtravel to double over the next 10 years, new/larger planes on order all over the world, and the economic climate will (once again) cause the supply/demand equation to change- just when is the million $$ question!

The future
 

To see the future you have to look into the past.

20 years ago airline pilots were paid almost three times more than they are now and had real benefits, job security and a livable schedule. Project that decreasing trend 20 years into the future and you will have your answer.

Whether or not there is a hiring boom in the future is irrelevant to what the wages, lifestyle and benefits will be. The hey day of the airline pilot is over and those who remain are there for love and glory alone.

Skyhigh

Captain ' Doom and Gloom ' SkyHigh, at your service...

Future
 

Is it "gloom and doom" or an honest and accurate projection of the future?

Skyhigh

Ha, you're posting's are priceless

Priceless
 

I am glad that you like them. In the future when things are as I have described try to look surprised. :)

Skyhigh

I agree with Skyhgh. This is a doomed industry, the government realized that decades ago. You can't make money like a normal business. You've got to spend more than you take and hopefully you cause the demise of your competitors.(Mesa) This model wouldn't fly for an ice cream stand let alone a serious business. Add in the fact that being a pilot is a dream job for us therefore most of us would do anything to fly, including under any compensation... It's becoming very evident that management has become very good at exploiting this fact the last several years. I think there will be more jobs but pay will be very low.

Well it's certainly not going to get better, no matter what the economy does. Sure, hiring and movement may resume, but the gradual erosion of the profession will continue. The 'glory days' are in the past, never to return. It's reality.

You certainly aren't the most optimistic person considering your profile position is "stagnant".

Like many predict I think the hiring will pick up in the future. Once the economy ascends again, like any business flying will pick up. The only thing is what type of flying will it be? If the majors don't grow and the regionals do that is a net loss of good jobs that are replaced by lower paying ones. Sure there will be more captain slots at the regional level, but those seats are going to be held by those in the right seat right now. If people lower expectations and can accept making a regional a career then the future probably looks pretty good. If your looking for a chance at the major the competition is going to be stiff...

Or go fly bizjet since business should pic up once the economy returns.

Pretty simple for my future.

1 Furlough down, 1 to go.

Then I'm out.

In the future of this industry the pilot groups will have to line up in reverse senority order. Do an about face, drop their trousers, place their foreheads and knees on the floor, and back into the chief pilot's office to collect their meager paychecks from their respective villianous companies.

Furlough
 

They say that a career pilot should expect three to five furloughs before retirement. Are you saying that you will endure one more furlough before you throw in the towel or are you saying that you have another plan?

Skyhigh

And if/when things do turn around - will you do the same? Will you come back on and admit that you were mistaken?

USMCFLYR

My long view of our profession is optimistic. In the next few years there will be some more airline failures and at least one or two legacy airline will go on strike. Contracts will eventually improve for all of us but there will always be furloughs. It may take ten years or so to make this a worthwhile profession but if enough of us demand it we will succeed.

Unfortunately, there will be a lot of pain still to come and some of us are getting too old and too tired to hang in there until things get better.

Are you serious?

My retirement plan- Gyro Captain
 

From: The Road Warrior
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3359/...6cb521a7ae.jpg

Who are "they?" Guess I've just never heard this statistic before.

I disagree Sky. Reference Panam, Braniff, Eastern, ValuJet and others. Many guys and gals have great schedules. I work three day trips mostly, granted when I move to another seat or airline I'll be on reserve, then eventually hold 4 days and so on. Being junior has always sucked, I hope nobody tries to sugar coat that, but there will always be good schedules out there.

As for pay, I don't think an Airline pilot should make more than a neurosurgeon, or 5 times what a firefighter makes. Just my opinion though.

As for the industry, as long as regionals don't start "code-sharing" with their major partners like Republic is doing with Midwest then I think we'll be okay. Most of the guys at the majors are starting to be more aware of what giving away their scope will do.

I'm saying that I won't sit around for 2 or 3 years waiting for a seat in a jet. I'll find a job in my backup career and fly a 150 with the extra money I'll be making. And once I'm there, I'm not going back.

Once I'm past the bottom of a non-major's seniority list, I'm not going back; one way or the other.

No I'll do better
 

If things really do get better. If wages significantly improve and schedules become livable. If pilots regain the respect of management and become truly in demand again then not only will I eat my words, but you will see me on the line.

Skyhigh

So....by YOUR definition :

Question is - could they EVER meet your demands? I don't think so.
So.....you want him to play - so should you.

USMCFLYR

Furlough
 

It use to be a common saying in the industry that a pilot should expect to get furloughed at least three times over a career. Every time you change companies and surrender the safety of seniority you are exposed to the risk of furlough. As we climb the ladder we are continually exposed to the risk. The alternative is to stick with the first regional that you can get a job at and hope that they never go out of business.

Especially in the current business environment as companies merge, go out of business shrink and otherwise change it is likely to expect that occasional furloughs or layoffs will be a recurring event. In 20 years most airlines that are in operation today will be gone or significantly changed. Most pilots have at least a 40 year career and that is a lot of time to be exposed to the forces of change that effect the industry.

Though not all of them were airline jobs by the time I was 36 I had been laid off or furloughed three times as a pilot and nearly laid off a few other times. Had I been able to get hired by after I got laid off the last time then most likely I would be laid off again now since three of the four companies I had tried to get on with have now gone under.

Skyhigh

Get better
 

My demands are not all that high. I need to be able to make a worthy living and there needs to be room to have a life.

60K and having to commute across the country for the right seat in a sweat shop is not OK.

SkyHigh

Right now I'm sitting at home on reserve. I'm on a minimum 12 hour call out, but usually get 16-26 hours of notification for an assignment. I will make 60K+ on 2nd yr A320 FO pay, and could break 100K on 3rd yr pay. With DAL workrules, all but 6 of my work days WILL BE long call reserve.

I understand the bitter taste in your mouth. I think you put a tremendous amount of heart and soul into the industry, only to be kicked in crotch repeatedly. But keep in mind that good jobs are still out there. I agree that traveling across the country for 60K a year is not worth it to many. However, it's YOUR choice to commute.

Bingo! Most people in this country don't commute across states to work. You (in general) don't have to either. However, you can if you choose to.

Good Jobs
 

Your job does sound like a good one and I agree that there are some good ones left. The trick is in getting them and being able to hold on to them. I wish that I could have landed a good job. It wasn't for lack of trying.

Skyhigh

I'm pretty sure many pilots out there disagree with me completely with the statement I'm about to make, and I'm sure that there are some out there that completely agree with me as well ...

I honestly believe that this industry has grown so much over the last few years (supply wise) that we have completely exceeded the amount of service required for the demand that exists. With the economy the way it is right now, and judging by the flight loads over the past several months ... unless Obama somehow manages to pull something no one saw coming out of his rear ... I truly believe that one airline (MAJOR NOT REGIONAL) will have to fold in order to bring a balance back to the supply vs demand schematic.

The other way I can see it balancing out is by doing what SWA is doing right now. Every airline cutting back their schedules by a certain percentage. Now, if every airline did that, then there would be almost no choice but to scale back (if not completely dismiss one or two) the regionals as well.

Discuss!! :)

Have a life
 

I choose to have a life. What is the point of having a wife and children if you are only home one and a half days per week because you have to commute? Some would say to always live at your base and that is definitely good advice however your spouse and children have lives and needs as well. How can you keep asking your wife to leave his or her career and your kids to leave their friends and school to move with every upgrade, new company or base change?

Eventually there comes a time when it is too difficult or expensive to keep moving the family to follow your career changes. The next answer is then to start commuting. The job is hard enough without having to spend much of your days off sitting in airports and crash pads only to come home to an empty house because your spouse is at work and kids are at school.

SkyHigh

Agree
 

I think that most would agree with you on that statement. The next question would be who will be the ones to go under?

Skyhigh

IMHO my friend, that would be completely up to the airlines themselves bringing to mind the "survival of the fittest" concept. Whoever can scale back their costs without going under would survive. SWA has done it for years and proven again and again you can be profitable by doing so. Now, their fuel hedging has helped, I'll be the first one to admit to that. But, simple things like gate utilization, and lowering ticket prices so more people can actually afford to travel would be beneficial.

just my .02 ;)

"They say that a career pilot should expect three to five furloughs before retirement"

"They" didn't say that. Skyhigh did...

The saying is "You're not a real airline pilot until you've been furloughed".

Skyhigh says he's been furloughed three times. He quit the biz (for his own good personal reasons), as a 121 757 F/O, when National Airlines (N7) went down. Before that, he worked for Horizon Air as an F/O.

Sky, please tell us about your other two "furloughs".

My opinion on the future of the biz, based on being in it since 1984, is that it goes up and down. We are down now in a perfect storm of age 65 and the economy. Will it come back? I think so. Will it be a worthy career? Or one to be incessantly bashed as a waste of your life? Only you can decide based on your personal situation, needs, and desires.

the definition of "regional" has been bastardized so many times over i don’t know what to think anymore.

• there was a day when regional meant tulsa to salina on a 1900.
• the jet made phoenix to santa barbara possible. time was you flew to LA then drove to santa barbara.
• then every city with more than 4 street lights and two walmarts started getting service and most multiple times a day.
• the jets began to feed the hub.
• when frequency became everybody’s best friend the jets started servicing major cities at off times of the day.
• regionals began flying from one class bravo to another.
• then came airlines using regional jets to maintain market share in enemy territory. hence the use of RJ's on LAX-SFO or ORD to DFW.
• the real transition came when someone gave these regional jets legs. i assure you when the term "regional" was first used to define an airline they didnt mean midwest to northeast.
• then came the replacement of the mainline fleet with passenger friendly RJ's... a'la midwest

it was the advent of range that was the death blow in my opinion. we were all more than thrilled to ditch the tulsa to salina scenario to fly a CRJ-900 from Kennedy to Dallas. So thrilled we'd do it for 20 bucks. pennies on the dollar and every bit as efficient if not more. I personally never thought id see a day when id fly a CRJ route that blocked at almost 4 hours and crossed two time zones. i fly like a real pilot but get paid like a puddle jumper.


to see the bastardization of regional jets go no further than the following... FlyteComm: The Most Accurate Free Flight Tracking/Tracker Tool in the industry!
type "CVG" into the arrival airport block and look at the carriers.

Well said S.J.
Go get 'em.
W.A.

DAL was one of the FIRST to scale back their flying. It's being done across the board, many actually did it BEFORE Southwest.

I've said it before, I respect and understand that. My commute is midwest to midwest, so it's bearable and very doable. Some ask why I would sit reserve out of base. I ask them if it's really fair to uproot my wife from her home and family. I know she would go with me, but I'm going to be on the road regardless. For that reason I would rather have her close to her family, this way she has loved ones to spend time with while I'm on the road. I don't agree with you on a lot SkyHigh, but I definitely agree with you on this.;):)

Agreed.:) Take Care

whole week off equals 6640C and keita? let me know.

Good luck on breaking $100k on 3rd year..... Heck I didn't even do that on 12 year pay.....

On the pre-bankruptcy contract?:confused: It's possible on the new PWA. One would have to average 82 hours a month. I know it's possible. It may not be probable though. I'm not sure because I've yet to hold block.