Originally Posted by Rnav (Post 556717)

Agreed to a point. I think 10 years is pessimistic. With stagnant hiring and many on the street no one is going anywhere. I assume people will get tired of the QOL, low pay and regional shuffle and give it up. Hiring in the near future will be for attrition. So there will be hiring. But does it really matter? they'll be more low paying regional jobs hiring before there are more higher paying mainline ones.

Originally Posted by ImEbee (Post 556198)

So I suppose I will take the first punch here ;)

This is exactly the same thing I have heard from every pilot who went straight to a regional job rather than instructing, or who wants to take that route. Only those of us who have instructed know how intangibly valuable flight instructing is. You can't explain how well you really begin to understand flying and the very fine nuances of it as an instructor. Not to mention what it means to be a professional pilot. Atwoo, I don't have ill words for you or anyone who had the opportunity to take an airline job without "having" to get your CFI because I probably would have taken the same path if it was available to me. Your "arguments" don't quite hold water though.

Being a CFI is the very first opportunity you have to be a leader. Sure other jobs may give you the opportunity to be PIC but more than likely you are going to be sitting alone much less have someone to the right of you. The first day I was an instructor was so much different than the last day I was a student. My first day as a captain was remarkably similar. Simplifiying instructing as trying to keep people from violating or killing you is very...well, simple. The idea that you can learn how to be a good captain (read leader) from just observing what is happening on your left is obsurd. You may have an idea of what does or does not make a good captain, but will you know how to do it?

And while your friends that went ahead and instructed are still waiting for calls, is anyone getting in ahead of them? I would guess not. And who do you think are going to be the first ones to get called when they start hiring off the street again? So how much senority are they really losing right now? I imagine they are also doing more flying right now than your friends on furlough...

OnTheWayUp, I know it hurts that you lost your job and kudos for standing up for what you believe you are worth regardless of the outcome. I doubt very many here would be able to make that stand. I would like to ask though; if hindsight were 20/20 and you had the chance to instruct rather than take the 135 job, would you have done it?

I started instructing July 2, 2001. We all know what happened two months later. At the time none of us really expected to instruct more than a year (long term). In fact, flying 135 cargo was the traditional next step. The two instructors at my school that had just left for inital ground school ended up snagging instructing jobs after getting their classes postponed. Ironically, I flew more the summer of 2002 than any other time to date. Granted its not the same scenario as today, but it is something to chew on. And if I may also say, if you cared enough to conclude you would make a lousy instructor, you would have made an exceptional instructor. If you really love it as you say, don't give up because nothing else will measure up:D Good luck in the future!

I hope this all makes sense as I'm now two beers in,

Cheers everyone!

Originally Posted by OnTheWayUp (Post 556739)

Yeah, I'll admit, I probably would go back and take the instructor route if I could do it again. But even my best friend from flight school has lost his instructing job due to a lack of students. Now he waits tables, and I'm going back to school. If I could go back even further I would probably have stopped at my private license and kept flying as a hobby. Maybe it was just bad luck for me, or bad timing, who knows. But flight school has just left me unemployed and in debt. I know nothing is going to measure up to flying as a job, but the real world is banging on my door real hard and I don't think I can ignore it much longer.

Originally Posted by SkyHigh (Post 556733)

Some regionals will hire. Others may go under. My point is that it will be a long time to never before we see 350 hour new hires again.

Jobs that do come available will be highly competitive. No more low timers or guys without a degree.

SkyHigh

Originally Posted by jayray2 (Post 556788)

Are you the same guy that back in July was crying the end of the world was coming as oil approached $150 and claimed it would be $250 before the end of the year? Everyone knows the airlines industry is very cyclical with boom and bust cycles. It goes up, it goes down. We are going down now and it will go back up eventually. Just the way it works.