What's your guess?
04-08-2009, 07:34 PM
#31
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2009
Position: FO CRJ-200
Posts: 75
Originally Posted by Rightseat Ballast
1. No real new hiring until spring 2010, perhaps summer. Recalls will happen this summer, but unfortunately regional recalls will be seasonal employees this time around. Next spring recalls will be back on a permanent basis, followed by hiring off the street by summer.
2. Regional hiring will begin at:
-Colgan
-Skywest
-Mesaba (I think you guys will benefit most from the DAL/NWA merger)
Major hiring will begin in 2010 at:
-Delta
-Southwest
-Airtran
(if you want to live in ATL, 2010 looks like your year!)
2. Regional hiring will begin at:
-Colgan
-Skywest
-Mesaba (I think you guys will benefit most from the DAL/NWA merger)
Major hiring will begin in 2010 at:
-Delta
-Southwest
-Airtran
(if you want to live in ATL, 2010 looks like your year!)
04-08-2009, 11:50 PM
#32
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Position: CRJ-200 Furlough
Posts: 96
Originally Posted by Paok
Never......well not for a long time. I dont ever expect to be recalled... so I did something about my future, and joined the military...... I could sit around for the next few years and wait like my friends are......................................... even if they do recall soon, ill be better off with my career path now then going back and being an FO for 12 years.
04-09-2009, 01:28 AM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 747
Cyclical economic data has been observed by ATA since 1938. The early years of commercial aviation from 1938 to 1959 shows a steady increase in profits caused by the growing industry. With the introduction of the Jet Airlines in the 1960’s, which lays a base for the business structure known today, the profit pattern became that of a first order damped oscillation system with peaks and valleys somewhat equal. The damping factor was the ability of the government to change fares as a direct response to demand using the P=D-C theory. As an example the cost of an RPM increased from .0663$ to .1280$ between 1973 and 19841 following the Yom Kippur war and the subsequent fuel crisis. In contrast with the latter, the price of an RPM decreased following the beginning of the gulf war and 9/11 and in both cases the RPM price rose while profits increased indicating a lag between the oscillation of profits and RPMs. There is a saying that airlines are always the first to feel a crisis and the last to benefit from a prospering economy. This can be explained by the lag between economic cycles and the adjustment in the airline industry. Interestingly the cycles of the airline industry have been quite consistent in terms of frequency. It can be determined that the fundamental frequency of an oscillatory graph based on airline profits is 0.0938/year. The period of the industry cycle can therefore be established as the reciprocal of the frequency, 10.7 years. This cycle period is therefore endogenous caused by the lag between demand/orders and acquisitions of aircraft and not significantly affected by events such as 9/11. The more lag there is the more aggravated the cycle amplitude becomes. Prior to deregulation, industry lag was minimal since the federal government could react quickly to changing needs and acted as a damper on the system. This created an economic cyclical sine wave similar to that of neutral stability. Exogenous factors such as international problems, fuel crisis and economic cycles have a relatively small impact on period but a large impact on amplitude.
04-09-2009, 06:01 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2008
Position: Hotel
Posts: 714
Originally Posted by Joachim
Cyclical economic data has been observed by ATA since 1938. The early years of commercial aviation from 1938 to 1959 shows a steady increase in profits caused by the growing industry. With the introduction of the Jet Airlines in the 1960’s, which lays a base for the business structure known today, the profit pattern became that of a first order damped oscillation system with peaks and valleys somewhat equal. The damping factor was the ability of the government to change fares as a direct response to demand using the P=D-C theory. As an example the cost of an RPM increased from .0663$ to .1280$ between 1973 and 19841 following the Yom Kippur war and the subsequent fuel crisis. In contrast with the latter, the price of an RPM decreased following the beginning of the gulf war and 9/11 and in both cases the RPM price rose while profits increased indicating a lag between the oscillation of profits and RPMs. There is a saying that airlines are always the first to feel a crisis and the last to benefit from a prospering economy. This can be explained by the lag between economic cycles and the adjustment in the airline industry. Interestingly the cycles of the airline industry have been quite consistent in terms of frequency. It can be determined that the fundamental frequency of an oscillatory graph based on airline profits is 0.0938/year. The period of the industry cycle can therefore be established as the reciprocal of the frequency, 10.7 years. This cycle period is therefore endogenous caused by the lag between demand/orders and acquisitions of aircraft and not significantly affected by events such as 9/11. The more lag there is the more aggravated the cycle amplitude becomes. Prior to deregulation, industry lag was minimal since the federal government could react quickly to changing needs and acted as a damper on the system. This created an economic cyclical sine wave similar to that of neutral stability. Exogenous factors such as international problems, fuel crisis and economic cycles have a relatively small impact on period but a large impact on amplitude.
Even if there is truth to this, there isn't enough of a track record from a statistic viewpoint to increase the confidence interval of that 10.7 number to anything reliable. Its just a fart in the wind guess right now.
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