ASA this Fall
 

Where do you see ASA this fall?

Currently we already know how our staffing levels are playing out. We also understand why they never called the furloughs back. The 20, CRJ200s probably will have a home, at least management seems certain. If all the pieces fall into play, do you still see them slimming more pilots? Does it take more pilots to run 20 CRJs at a different airline (possibly even another base) then if we kept them here in ATL for Delta?

Just wondering...

By home did the mean operating them for another carrier or did they mean they found a place for them to go (ie, they found someone to take them off of their hands)?

they dont have a plan for them. their master "plan" is for mesa to go under and then hopefully someone will need more 50's. thats why they keep saying, "we dont have any flying for them, but were confident we'll find something."

but to answer the question, i dont think much will change (staffing wise) in the fall. they will most likely wait until spring when the fate of the planes will be decided.

This is all just me guessing

This sounds like what XJT management kept telling the pilot group after CAL announced they would be pulling 69 aircraft from the CAL fleet. The only flying they ever found was the Branded Flying, & that lasted only a year before getting the ax. The 50 seater is dying fast, particularly in the DAL world. Good Luck guys.

I hope something good happens for ASA this fall but I just have that feeling this fall is going to be rough for the entire industry.

ya they have mentioned something similar. they are saying that they will keep them flying for delta into cities that delta doesnt serve. atlantic city is one of them. asa would take responsibility for the losses and profits would be shared with delta. you have to assume that delta pulled out of ACY for a reason, so i dont know why they want to start their own service into there. especially with fuel going up again. they will keep telling us that they have a plan for them in order to keep morale up for as long as possible.

I think we're gonna find out whether or not the "No Furlough" Clause is worth the paper it's written on.

Well, they can furlough a bunch more to reach the limit of guys not on the protected list.

Why is ASA the only other DCI expected to feel the pain (Comair) of the 50 seat loss? Why not add Pinnacle, Mesaba and CHQ to the list...

Also, Delta still needs feed. They are not replacing 50's with more 70's/90's, so it stands to reason that not such a drastic amount of 50's can/will be shed! Delta needs the hubs fed, and right now the 50 does the bulk of this feeding. Take it FWIW.

I wouldn't put too much on the fact that 50 seaters will continue to survive and thrive in the DCI fleet. This is from an employee online chat with Steve Gorman, EVP and COO of Delta.

Steve said... (Jun 10, 2009 1:14:52 PM)
Pre-submitted Question: What is the RJ Fleet Plan?
Answer: We still have too much 50-seat lift. That said, we have either negotiated or have natural lease returns of 50-seaters over the next few years of: 2009 - 21 (plus another 10 Saabs); 2010 - 35; 2011 - 24; 2012 - 44. Even with that aggressive return schedule, we may seek to return 50-seaters earlier and are working on deals for that now.


Sorry for the bad news.:(

Um mesaba is parking 10 airplanes and probably going to furlough. We are not running our airplanes to full capacity at all and were just given the worst travel benefits in the whole DCI system. Express Jet got totally cut, Compass is in danger of getting their whole list flushed out the door so you are def not the only ones feeling pain but being specific to your 50 seat loss, its all about the contracts that are signed with delta. Your management decided to trade 2 for 1. Ours probably will soon as well.

If you think Pinnacle, CHQ, and soon to be mesaba haven't been feeling or will be not be feeling the pain, you haven't been paying attention to the industry other than whats going on with your carrier. Lots of info about Pinnacle, CHQ, and Mesaba pain in several threads on this forum.

I know it's a tough environment for everyone right now, but we shouldn't jump to too many conclusions about what will happen in the next few years. We've just gone through the sharpest downturn since the 1930's. That's bound to leave a mark and it has, but what has happened doesn't always foreshadow what will happen.

Most of the forecasts we are seeing now basically assume things won't get much better. In other words, the economy will be static for years to come. That's possible, but how often do things turn out just as they were planned? Not often, I think.

The most negative economist over the past few years was Nouriel Roubini. He earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" because he was so bearish. In late February, when things were at their worst, he predicted a recession that would last 36 months. In other words, the recession would not end until October 2010.

Now, Roubini is singing a different tune. Rather than say the recession continues, he says the US faces the risk of a double dip recession. In other words, even he now believes the economy will grow from this point, but it could slip back into recession if certain factors occur.

I know I took a while to get to my point, but here it is. The economy will drive what happens to staffing levels at airlines. Because the economy is so dynamic and changable, forecasts made today based on models that don't always work well should only be used as a rough guide, if that. Economic forecasts made in October 2007 certainly didn't capture the pain of the last two years so those that predict future pain could be just as wrong.

The airline industry is changing, but when the economy turns so will leisure travel. It's just that simple. People are not going to change their habits. How long did it take for people to start flying after 9/11? In the end, almost everything reverts back to the mean. Travel will be the same.

[quote=Truman_Sparks;630447]Why is ASA the only other DCI expected to feel the pain (Comair) of the 50 seat loss? Why not add Pinnacle, Mesaba and CHQ to the list... quote]

While not 50 seaters, CHQ retired all of their EMB135s.

Unless the articles that I've read on the topic are wrong, I believe Chautauqua will be running -135s for Midwest Connect after they take over the operation from SkyWest this summer.

Paul Krugman (politics aside) has been famously accurate over the years regarding economic predictions, and his long-term outlooks are nothing rosy either. A double-dip is quite possible, now that manufacturing inventory levels have had a chance to right themselves a bit. We are in a 'liquidity trap', where further meaningful interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy are essentially impossible, especially when the lenders are still tight with the money. We are a spend spend spend economy, and many folks aren't in the mood to spend! So goes the economy.

I find it interesting that Expressjet got a 3 month contract to do United Express flying in ORD and IAD. It reminds me of our 3 month contract in LAX that Expressjet ultimately got. I wonder if Expressjet is holding down the fort while we get through the "busy summer", then we take over the contract this fall when we're fat on pilots?

I also keep hearing another 2-1 is eminent.

As part of the PBS negotiations, I predict the company takes the remaining 60 furloughable pilots hostage once the "busy summer" schedule ends. This is because the union wants them protected. I predict ASA will furlough them and make the union negotiate them back.

Do you really expect them to share their business plan with you before its implemented? That would be unprecedented in this industry. Why tip your hand to your competitors.

Regarding Mesa, they're done for Delta either way. Delta has made it clear that they want rid of them. As for the company as a whole, they're probably done come fall. Their capitalization is so low, they're about to lose their certificate. They're coasting through the summer on high interest short term credit. Look for the biggest implosion since Enron sometime late this fall. That will create a huge vacuum to fill and ASA is best positioned to fill it.

From the Mesa thread above:

highly unlikely. The delta contract was a mutual decision to end it. The United flying while i am sure it will be up for bid if there is an opening is a complete gamble for the future at xjt. In the short term it is something to do but bringing in a completely different carrier with all the problems of opening a new base, getting crew members familiar with the new way of doing things, and just dealing with yet another lift provider.... too many headaches. look at what happened for the first 6 months when CHQ and CAL started... it was a complete cluster.

Does anyone know what kind of attrition numbers we are looking at for the new publication of the seniority list in July? I'm guessing 0-5 but I have no idea.

Also how many of the 80 ended up going to G7? I can think of 4. I thought all of them were supposed to resign when they went there.

If I remember correctly 12 interviewed and 11 went. All were offered jobs. The one that didn't go was in my class, that is how I heard about the numbers.

Thanks, so that narrows the furlough list to 69 at most with probably another 60 new ones to come in the fall. I'm guessing attrition is under 10 so we should have around 1690-1700 pilots on the new seniority list in July.

Q1 2011 recall seems realistic.

2011 recall at ASA??? I think 2010 recall is just as realistic just attrition alone would make that a reasonable estimate.

John where would these other 700/900's come from on another 2-1 deal? DCI has already MAXED out their larger AC's for connection flights.

What is the current attrition rate? I would guess it's near 0.

Q1 2011 seems realistic to me for the following reasons:

- Scott said not to expect any changes till summer 2010 in that email about block hours. If they can make it through this summer with the record number of block hours with out recalls there is no reason why they can't do it next summer, especially with 20 CRJs (net negative 10 aircraft) leaving the fleet.

- PBS could slash our staffing needs by 10% or more if it is voted in

- If the rumors of another 2-1 swap are true (don't know) we'll have a net loss of 20 aircraft (when added with the other 2-1 swap) and at roughly 5.5 crews per aircraft, that's over 220 pilots we won't need anymore.

There is also the Skywest wild card, what's to stop them from taking more ASA flying to avoid furloughs on their side?

dont be ridiculous. you know as well as i do that they don't have a plan. and how many times have you said, 'mesa will be done in 6 months....blah blah blah.' that talk has been going on for 2 years +.

I don't know if Skywest can just "take" ASA flying. Still the matter of contracts and certificates. But I don't know. There is always attrition no matter what, it is just a matter of how many. My seniority number went up about 24 people on the last update in Jan. So I am very curious on what the new number is. Also if you look at that most recent e-mail, we have close to 100 pilots on LOA for med or mil. So out of 1600 pilots that are not furloughed there is still another 100 not flying. That makes 1500 pilots working this summer and fall schedule. My opinion will change IF another 2-1 deal is worked out. That I think will be the nail in the coffin for a 2010 recall. But I have no clue where these planes will come from because DCI 700/900 are maxed out. I do AGREE with you the PBS may skrew everything up and that to me is the biggest wild card. If voted in that is just as bad if not worst than a 2-1 deal. But.... if the FAA changes these duty time rules... well that means those 16 hr days now need 2 pilots to do. That can be a blessing for ALL furloughed pilots because staffing numbers will have to change. I think there is too many unknowns right now for anyone, including myself, to make a good prediction. The chips can fall in any direction right now.

I'd be willing to bet they have a plan. Why would a company that was previuosly refusing a 2 for 1 deal agree to a 2 for 1 deal if they didn't have some sort of plan? Skywest INC. isn't a bunch of idiots. Nothing is signed and dotted yet so there is no announcement of anything. JP is right. Why would they talk about something that is not complete? That would just be stupid. Our new management has made good moves so far, let's give them the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

I'm sure they are making a good move regardless because, from a management perspective, increasing the size of the 700/900 fleet reduces the company's exposure to 50 seaters. They'll diversify the company while the Delta scope still allows them to do so. I'm sure they would love to find homes for all the -200s but given the current financial climate and terrible economics of the aircraft it is doubtful that they will.

Bottom line, yes they have a plan but it doesn't mean that plan is good for the pilots.

A plan good for the company is good for the pilots in terms of growth. If furloughing pilots now creates more long term jobs for the future then I'd say they're doing the right thing. Better than keeping a fleet of 50 seaters and slowly dying. I know it's a hard time right now, but we have good leaders. Judging by the last year and a half of new management I have no reason not to trust them.

Under our new management we furloughed 80 pilots. ASA had never done that prior but you have 'no reason not to trust them'?

Sorry, no personal attack here, but I hear that line often enough that I have to point out the obvious.

Are you seriously saying that the new management caused the economy to tank so bad that our flying was reduced enough to cause a furlough? Or that we weren't overstaffed at the time of the furlough?

Come on. I know it's tough right now. But this isn't a normal economic time. Look around, ASA isn't the only one.

The company could have justified more than 80 furloughs because of economic conditions several times in the last decade but chose not to. In 30 years of existence as a company, they did not furlough until this year under the new management. They are likely to furlough 60 or more this fall, but you still trust them?

I'm not saying management doesn't have the company's best interest in mind, but you should not fully trust the company to have your (or my) best interest in mind.

BTW, based on management's prior actions, I fully expect to be furloughed this fall. I'm also fully prepared for it - I'm not resentful or worried but if management truly wanted my trust, then my job should be secure. Ask all the ground crews who are jobless (or soon to be) right now how much they trust management.

I think you're confused on the role of management. Management exists to run a profitable business, not to supply jobs to employees. There is NO doubt that we were overstaffed in the winter and might still be overstaffed come fall. I trust our new management to run a good business. Just because I have CLOSE friends on furlough doesn't mean they are doing a bad job. You need to take emotion out of your view of business.

There is NOTHING management could have done to save our ground personnel. Have you seen the ops at some of these new places? Understaffed and working with broken equipment. ASA had no chance to win those bids. And they should NOT submit a bid that is not profitable just to supply jobs. And I think the ground crews are more ****ed at Delta then ASA. I have talked with many of them. Maybe you should.

Ok, mr smart guy, instead of shooting down mine, let's hear your prediction. We'll see who's closer in 6 mos.

What would you say if I told you I know for a fact that Brad Holt fought the SKW BOD on the furloughs? They wanted him to immediately furlough all furloughable pilots last Oct and he fought them. He finally compromised in January and furloughed the 80. As you may recall, I mentioned this last Oct that furloughs were coming because I heard about this last Oct that SKY was demanding ASA cut the fat. Brad fought for us as much as he could while still keeping his job. Don't write him off yet.

I'm not confused, I've talked to may of our station staff and I have no emotions vested in the discussion. So why get personal?

Philosophical difference here - if you treat your employees well and guarantee job security through good times and bad, you will be rewarded with a more productive workforce. It's not unrealistic, but it's definitely not a common business plan in the US.

There's also no question that we are understaffed right now. Instructor pilots are bidding FO lines and we run through the entire reserve list every weekend.

And, again, we have a philosophical difference - I have seen a noticeable decline in the moral of the captains I fly with and a serious increase in anxiety for those who are furlough or downgrade fodder this fall. Though harder to quantify, poor moral can effect the bottom line just as badly as the 80 furloughs.

I agree that there is not much that ASA could have done to outbid then new Delta ops Borg. But ASA could have done more to reward the loyalty of the multiple 20+ year employees at the stations we've lost. Instead, ASA is content to wash their hands of the mess while proclaiming 'not our fault'!

If I get furloughed this fall, I understand that this management considers it a good business decision. I simply disagree. I don't like the prospect of being furloughed, but I bend over backwards (and will continue to do so) to keep flights ontime and to make the company look good because it is in my best interest to see the company succeed. I will not, however, trust our management to have my best interests at heart.

I agree completely, they are looking out for the long term health of the company by getting more 700s and 900s. You are correct, the 50 seaters are going away eventually so they might as well get something out of them while they still have the bargaining power.

I've been very happy with the new management so far and have no reason to mistrust them. They don't run a social welfare program so they have to have the best interests of the company first. That said they do seem to genuinely care about the employees and their well being.

I am honestly impressed with Brad and his management of ASA. He is very responsive and available and I would not doubt what you say. I will also point out that many SKW pilots say he had a very different management style until he came here. Not writing him off, but I'm not about to trust our management to have my best interests in mind.

I never said that management has our best interest as a human being at heart. I said I trust management to run a successful business. What is typically good for a business (ie. growth) is good for the employees. THAT'S where I trust them. They have not given me a reason to distrust their ability to run a profitable airline in an unprofitable economy. That's all I meant by my previous statements. When the economy rebounds I feel that we will be in a good position. I hope our furloughed pilots are back on property as soon as possible. But I also know that management will not bring them back until they are needed (for more than 3 months) because they have an obligation to ALL employees to be profitable.

I think it's going to be a long time before I get called back to asa. My guess would be 2011 unless something big happens but who really knows. Some days I don't even think it will happen. That way when it does happen it's sooner then I thought therefore I win....hahaha :D