Predictions on airlines just predictions
 

I know it's a tough environment for everyone right now, but we shouldn't jump to too many conclusions about what will happen in the next few years. We've just gone through the sharpest downturn since the 1930's. That's bound to leave a mark and it has, but what has happened doesn't always foreshadow what will happen.

Most of the forecasts we are seeing now basically assume things won't get much better. In other words, the economy will be static for years to come. That's possible, but how often do things turn out just as they were planned? Not often, I think.

The most negative economist over the past few years was Nouriel Roubini. He earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" because he was so bearish. In late February, when things were at their worst, he predicted a recession that would last 36 months. In other words, the recession would not end until October 2010.

Now, Roubini is singing a different tune. Rather than say the recession continues, he says the US faces the risk of a double dip recession. In other words, even he now believes the economy will grow from this point, but it could slip back into recession if certain factors occur.

I know I took a while to get to my point, but here it is. The economy will drive what happens to staffing levels at airlines. Because the economy is so dynamic and changable, forecasts made today, based on models that don't always work well, should only be used as a rough guide, if that. Economic forecasts made in October 2007 certainly didn't capture the pain of the last two years so those that predict future pain could be just as wrong.

The airline industry is changing, but when the economy turns so will leisure travel. It's just that simple. People are not going to change their habits. How long did it take for people to start flying after 9/11? In the end, almost everything reverts back to the mean. Travel will be the same.

I'm not trying to be a wild eyed optimist, but I think a contrarian view every now and then doesn't hurt.

Remember, air travel is still a luxury. If people aren't going on vacation, they aren't flying. If business' are going out of business, there are less business fliers. Aviation goes down almost immediately as consumer confidence dwindles, but it lags behind on the upswing. My highly uneducated prediction is that we won't see much hiring until 65 kicks in. That's 4 yearsish away. If the economy picks up in 2-3 years, aviation will lag behind and pick up right about the same time as age 65.

Just my opinion, so don't get all mad.

I believe the economy will take another dip if this happens, overall when it comes to finance it takes awhile to recuperate. and theres nothing we (well I) can do but just sit down and watch.

1. more banks closing
2. N.Korea attacks (nuclear)
3. china stops lending us money
4. wallstreet collapses
5. gas prices rises astronomically
6. another terrorist attack

That's probably the one I fear the most right now in your list.

To add to your doomsday list don't forget the unrest in Iran, there are two people who both dislike the U.S. that want to be President with some sort of nuclear program that we don't have many details on. If the issue gets ugly which it most likley will god only knows what will happen.

don't forget bout the end of the world happening around december 2012.

Myans predicted it, must be true....:eek:

So did Nostradamus! So, here's my prediciton... Hiring will resume Nov 2012, once we are out of ground school the world will end. The only two things that survive are Cockroaches and JO :D

I really don't think that they are dumb enough to try it, I really don't. Besides, none of their missle tests have been a smashing success. They are like a crazy little dog, they yip and yip and yip, but you yell at em and give em the squirt bottle, they put their tail between their legs and pee all over themselves.

Sorry to detract from the topic of the thread.

I too believe that it will be very stagnant until the age 65'ers on on their way to retirement though.

is 2000 rounds of 7.62 gonna be enough for my stockpile?