No good news
 

While the industry was falling apart, I remained optimistic mostly because I didn't want to believe things were so bad. Despite the great move in the stock market, the drop in oil, and the supposed return to growth in the economy, there seems to be no good news at regionals right now.

Maybe it's the surest sign that a bottom is in for the industry, but where is the good news? Does any actually exist? I was hoping we might see some sustantial recalls and even a touch of hiring in 2010, but I'm starting to get the sense 2010 may need to be completely written off, at least for any hiring.

If I'm wrong and just too negative, point me in the right direction. I suppose shorter duty days could require higher staffing, but even that wouldn't take place until late next year.

In this case, if you have low expectations, things will tend to look generally positive. But the economy is not growing yet. Unemployment is still on the rise, not counting the tons of people that are employed but only part time living in a basement or with 20 other people not being able to support the economy. I'm actually as surprised though that the recalls have not been been quicker and actually there's still talk of more furloughs.

First you need to understand how the economy affects aviation, then where the airline business stands and then at last where you stand in all this mess.

The jobs are the last things to come back after a recesion and this is particulary true in the aviation world. Aviation jobs would be the last ones to come back. Remember, we always "surf in the back of the economy wave." I don't want to get in all that airline managment stupid decisions, but I didn't think it was a good idea to keep increasing capacity even though everything was pointing to a high oil environment and an inminent recesion. A lot of people saw it coming in early 2007 and yet airlines kept increasing capacity and hiring.
Now, if the economy has hit rock bottom, there will be a slow recovery. Let say that we can declare that we are out of a recession in the first quarter of 2010, I would roughly calculate that that recovery will start to show summer 2010 at modest rates. If the recovery is sutained by the remaining of 2010, we'll probably have most of all Furloughed pilots back in the cockpit by the end of 2010. If in 2011 the oil prices are "under control" we might see some hiring.

So, my friend, keep hangin' in there and remember there's a good chance that in a few years we'll see a combined growth with massive retirements (age 65), now that could get interesting. Boeing still claims that by 2028 the number of comercial aircraft will be duplicated in the world. Let's hope they're right.;)

I was a finance major so I have a pretty good idea of the economy works, but I thought a few factors specific to airlines might make things rebound faster. First, I thought airlines were running pretty lean on staffing when the downturn came. While there have been furloughs, most haven't been massive, unless you're furloughed already.

Second, friends have told me there have been plenty of times flights have flown with two captains. Also, some pilots have quit just because and some on furlough have given up and moved on as well. I thought those two issues would lead to recalls.

Mostly, I'm just surprised at how there is no good news on the baord. There aren't even any rumors about recalls floating around. That's depressing.

I fear that what we are seeing is not a recession, but a realignment of the global economy and domestic aviation as a result. I would not expect any significant hiring in the next several years.

2013 is a myth. There won't be a one for one replacement of retirees, just scope concessions and capacity constriction. Then cabotage, then the job will REALLY not appeal to even the suicidal "bob I'll take curtain #1 for 100K in debt for a 18K job, final answer" crowd. Nevermind the job you're vying for doesn't even have a retirement benefit worth writing home about. If your goal is a 50% odds of 75K CA pay no pension, then this job is in line with your expectations.

The dream is dead, next.

AGREED. The good ol days are over. To quote an American Legend..."Good times never seemed so good."

The last "good ol day" was Sept. 10th, 2001.

Even if 2013 was real there is no way management would pay the higher salaries needed to attract more pilots for the mythical shortage. They would simply take the cheap way out and pressure the FAA to allow even lower minimums and allow single pilot cockpits.

Lower minimums maybe (doubtful after Colgan but we'll see)...but a single-pilot Part 25 passenger-carrying jet? Don't look for that ANY time soon.

A pilot will never be able to walk into a company with a resume and get hired without having to stand in line with a bunch of others whose numbers outweigh the positions.

There will always be someone else standing there to compete with. This is the goal of managements - it keeps costs down. Too many people are trying to avoid having to do real work and flight training schools make millions from selling a phony dream to these types.

The "status" of the profession is dropping to a point where more people can achieve the end game.

Something big needs to come into the mix to make it tougher to achieve that first rung on the ladder. High times, type of experience, more formal education, you name it.

A guy can go from zero to right seat on an RJ in less than a year assuming the training is financed. Kickbacks from the schools to the airlines for their so called "guaranteed interview" just grease up the chute. The ROI on the newbie is higher, he's still full of the dream and will work under any conditions to pay off the huge debt he's stuck with.

Its the perfect scenario for an airline bean counter.

Something needs to end this in time for the next hiring boom or many of us will never have chance at a fruitful career.

No No NO you have it all wrong... Instead of single-pilot part 25 they'll just transition to a UAV fleet with two of those blow up figures from the men in black movies as the cockpit dummies:rolleyes:

At Comair, I would pretty much call the furloughs "massive". From October 2008 to January 2009 there were 297 furloughed. This month many are going to be gone that took a voluntary furlough and more involuntary furloughs (already announced) will be gone in November. So, in October 2008 there were almost 1400 pilots (not sure on the exact number) and in January 2010 there will be around 1000. Pretty much saying that in one year (October 2008-November 2009) a third of the pilots will be gone, either voluntary or involuntary.

If you see two captains flying, it's most likely that the one on the right was downgraded. It's not that they are short FO's.

Also, I always find it humorous when I fly on Delta and the crew says "I had no idea that Comair furloughed anyone." Even though Delta is directly to blame for the furloughs.

Well you are not alone Expressjet has already furloughed 347 and that is after early outs, colas, and 40 hour lines. With more to maybe come, who knows.

Maybe the fact that regionals aren't growing is a good thing long term. Sure it sucks right now but in the end it is probably for the best. Fee per departure flying is dead in my opinion. Until the regionals start taking on the burden of paying for their own fuel I don't expect to see any huge growth in the regional sector. I don't think any regional would be profitable if they had to cover the fuel and all the other expenses when the poo started hitting the fan. (Hotels for cancellations/meals for stranded passengers/etc...)

Mesa early 07' 1850 ish
Mesa Now 1260 ish

Funny, AirWillie, but I think you are on to something. It's not that we should have low expectations, but that we should have realistic expectations.

When I was a T-34 flight instructor, one of my first students was a Naval Academy graduate who was at the top of his class and literally a rocket scientist. During the Fam 0 where I show him a preflight and brief him on the flight training program, I asked him his plans. His response surprised me, "I'm going to fly jets, then I'm going to Test Pilot School, then I'm going into the Astronaut program". He said it like some reservations clerk had already booked his itinerary and he had the tickets in his pocket. As it turned out, his superior brain power didn't translate as easily into good old eye-hand coordination and flight sense. He got his wings, but he didn't fly jets.

For us, the lesson is to have a full understanding of both the path Corporate America is headed, the globalization of the economy and the full impact of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 (which is still affecting all of us).

In short, the legacies are shrinking. Airlines are consolidating to the point where, instead of growing, they are forming alliances to reduce competition. The proposed AA-BA alliance comes to mind. Meanwhile, the former regionals are growing into the vacuum created by the retreating legacies. The net result will be more regional pilots competing for fewer mainline jobs. Many will see their dream of becoming a major airline pilot come to fruition, but most will not.

It's good to have dreams and ambition, but we need to temper those dreams and ambition with a clear and realistic view of the situation. Many of those who are either bitter about being "stuck in the right seat at a regional" or, worse, bitter Captains are people who, IMHO, never had a realistic appraisal of their options and opportunities. Even if they did get to a mainline, they'd probably be bitter about not moving up faster. The problem is within them, not what is happening outside of them. FWIW.

And that surprises you?:cool:

I wish my company would "downsize" some of the outsourced express flying. Maybe that would keep more of us on the mainline property. That's what most of us got into the pax-hauling airline business for in the first place, right? We didn't plan to make a career out of regional flying. Regionals have become career airlines, but at the expense of mainline.
I've been furloughed once, and I am about to be furloughed again. I understand the stress, the anxiety and the pain associated with losing one's job. This is no slight against the furloughed Comair pilots.
But are you truly surprise that a Delta crew has no idea what's going on at Comair? They've got their own issues to worry about. Not the least of which is how much possible downsizing may occur at Delta due to the merger, or the expansion of express flying.
Let's put the shoe on the other foot. Let's assume Delta starts a significant reduction of mainline domestic capacity, while at the same time expanding the express side of the equation. While Comair pilots enjoy better schedules, early upgrades, the return of all furloughees and maybe even hiring, how much sympathy or concern will the Comair pilots sincerely have for the furloughed Delta pilots?

The "I got mine" attitude is disappointing, but hardly surprising.

Hog

How many of those 590 pilots are out on furlough?? Certainly not all. The rest left to other carriers back in the regional hiring boom of Summer 07.

Probably not the best comparision to the Comair situation.

getting close to 200 i think
Mesa has lost 590 ish pilot positions is the point.
just because people left on there own doesnt change the fact that we would have close to 600 people on F had they not left

If we count it that way: Comair July 2005-1800 pilots, November 2009-1000 pilots

While I feel for the DAL pilots, and it is sad when someone loses their job, I really hope that DAL goes back into bankruptcy in the near future (and out of business). That company will never come out of their 1970's attitude of running an airline. The only difference between now and then is that NWA now runs DAL. Look at the management now in place, at Delta, Comair, Compass, Mesaba, NWA...all NWA management.

What is the "Express side" of Delta? Do you mean the "Connection" side?

If DL goes into BK again, then this industry is over. Every other carrier out there, with the exception of SWA, is closer to BK than Delta.

Are you sure about that? While I can't speak for the DCI carriers, the Senior Executive suite of Delta is comprised of the following:

Anderson - Delta
United Healthcare
NWA
Continental

Bastain - Delta
Acuity Brands
Delta

Gorman - Delta
Greyhound
Krispy Kreme
NWA

Becker - NWA
Dow Chemical

Campbell - Delta
Harrison & Ford
Continental

Hauenstien - Delta
Alitalia
Continental

Halter - Delta
American Airlines
Ernst & Young LLP

Hirst - NWA
Minnesota Twins
Burger King
KB Home
NWA

Newman - NWA
Numerous Law firms and Government positions

Walker - Delta
Continental
Frontier - Horizon (old ones)
TV journalist - KWGN

Wise - NWA


Seems to me that these folks change companies faster then a frat boy on a saturday night. None of them are true "company men." Don't expect them to run Delta just like NW was run.

Frat boys change companies on Saturday nights? I don't see the analogy?

Regionals won't he hiring for a while, at least 3 years I'm guessing. There may be some small classes here or there to cover attrition, but the growth that was seen at regionals from 2003-2008 is over. The 50 seater is basically dead, & with limits on larger RJs regionals will continue to shrink.

Plus, I'm not sure I understand your comment about DAL never getting out of their 1970's way of running an airline. How much DAL flying is outsourced? Doesn't DAL fly a Hub & Spoke system? Are we following the rules of de-regulation? Do our CAs make enough to take a months paycheck and buy a car?

The Glory Days have been over for a long time. I'm sorry that Comair is taking such a beating, but I think DAL managements actions have more to do with adapting to survive rather then sticking to a 1970's business plan. JMO

Cheers

Not surprising, but certainly not the background I'd want to see a board member have if I were an employee...and yes, I know employees don't get a voice or a decision in the matter.

Moving from one party to the next....

As badly as mainline management wants domestic flying scoped out to 70-80 seat jets, I have the feeling as soon as they start increasing capacity again the role of regionals will increase again. With the amount of clout the senior union members have, I have a bad feeling more scope will be sacrificed for pay.

My 2 cents.

Well it sounds like AA and CAL, who are both deep in contract negotiations, have a very hard line on scope this time around. Perhaps even the senior guys have figured it out by now that the only way the airlines can outsource more flying is if they let them. We'll just have to wait and see but I'd hope that all the union reps by now have seen what scope relief can do and why its important to never ever give it up.

WARNING: OPTIMISTIC POST; READ AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!
this post is only one real life account and may not reflect your own personal experience[/SIZE]
I feel pretty good right now...even though I'm back on reserve duty, I live in base, am not called every day (in fact, only flew once last week), get paid a better than ave. salery (though underpaid for a pilot/responsibility), and enjoy doing my job when I have to. It's not always like this, but right now it's pretty good. I think 2010 will be ok with hiring at nominal levels but better than now. I also think that 2011 will be better than 2010, and 2012 will be great. but that and $1.25 will get you a coke in the airport (vending machine, not restaurant). Now, if you are just now trying to get into the field, all bets are off...who really knows... If you are a CA, who's young, at a stable regional (:p) then you may be in a good spot. Even a relatively senior FO should be sitting in a good position 2-3yrs from now.

Or one partner to the next.....

Not board members, senior executives. He is in charge of Employee Relations, among other things.

If Congress does pass legislation requiring an ATP/1500 hours to fly part 121, then we will see the end of regionals hiring pilots with 200 hours. They will be ineligible. Sure, they can work up to 1500 hours (like many of us did), but it takes more time and $$$ and therefore thins the ranks.

This matters because when the retirement wave starts in 2013 the regionals will be drained of pilots and will have no way to replace them since the number of pilots coming up through the flight schools will not be enough. The only way they can keep their pilots on property is to incentivize them in some way, possibly with higher pay or other contract improvements. This is good news and bad news. The bad news is this makes regionals more expensive to operate and will therefore contribute to their shrinking.

So while it's definitely bad right now, and may get worse before it gets better, things will turn. Better days are ahead. And for those who truly believe that single pilot crews or cabotage are coming anytime soon, I just don't see that as a serious political likelihood. For those who can hang on, it will get markedly better. Not like the glory days, but much better than today. It may take 5-10 years, but it should be worth it.

Good for you my friend !! If you can manage to be happy where you are, your life is much more enjoyable. Takes a lot of the stress off your back with things tha you really have you no control. Also having a job right now beats being on the streets.
Few days ago I talked to a cargo guy that was recently furloughed. Before that he always complained about his company (which was bad on QOL and job security).
So I ask him: "do you miss being a freight dawg?"
and his answer was: "well... it beats being a street dawg".

How, exactly, is that bad news??? The less flying the regionals do, the more flying goes to mainline... Sounds like GOOD news to me...

Even worse!

...but again, not surprising...

Bad news for the regionals and those who intend to stay with a regional airline. Good news for those who intend to go to a mainline carrier. But that was my point.

Delta- Andersen - Former NWA
Comair - Bendyouranus - Former NWA, then Compass, then Comair
Compass-Campbell - Former NWA
Mesaba - Spanjers - Former NWA

All the CEO's are former NWA

Yes, they fly hub and spoke, which is an old way of operating. Try going anywhere on DAL without visiting ATL, SLC, or CVG.
No airline captains make that kind of money anymore. Sad.
JFK terminal 2 and 3 (DAL)- are these not the oldest, most run down terminals in the entire airport? Yes, they are. Just go to Jet Blue, American, or any other terminal and compare.
Gate agents that rude to passengers (yes, it happens at other airlines, but I see it mostly at DAL) Pax are your livelyhood, if you treat them like crap, they won't come back.
Not anything against geriatric people still working, but NOT as a flight attendant please!
The list goes on, but I am too tired to think of them right now.