While the industry was falling apart, I remained optimistic mostly because I didn't want to believe things were so bad. Despite the great move in the stock market, the drop in oil, and the supposed return to growth in the economy, there seems to be no good news at regionals right now.

Maybe it's the surest sign that a bottom is in for the industry, but where is the good news? Does any actually exist? I was hoping we might see some sustantial recalls and even a touch of hiring in 2010, but I'm starting to get the sense 2010 may need to be completely written off, at least for any hiring.

If I'm wrong and just too negative, point me in the right direction. I suppose shorter duty days could require higher staffing, but even that wouldn't take place until late next year.

 

In this case, if you have low expectations, things will tend to look generally positive. But the economy is not growing yet. Unemployment is still on the rise, not counting the tons of people that are employed but only part time living in a basement or with 20 other people not being able to support the economy. I'm actually as surprised though that the recalls have not been been quicker and actually there's still talk of more furloughs.

 

First you need to understand how the economy affects aviation, then where the airline business stands and then at last where you stand in all this mess.

The jobs are the last things to come back after a recesion and this is particulary true in the aviation world. Aviation jobs would be the last ones to come back. Remember, we always "surf in the back of the economy wave." I don't want to get in all that airline managment stupid decisions, but I didn't think it was a good idea to keep increasing capacity even though everything was pointing to a high oil environment and an inminent recesion. A lot of people saw it coming in early 2007 and yet airlines kept increasing capacity and hiring.
Now, if the economy has hit rock bottom, there will be a slow recovery. Let say that we can declare that we are out of a recession in the first quarter of 2010, I would roughly calculate that that recovery will start to show summer 2010 at modest rates. If the recovery is sutained by the remaining of 2010, we'll probably have most of all Furloughed pilots back in the cockpit by the end of 2010. If in 2011 the oil prices are "under control" we might see some hiring.

So, my friend, keep hangin' in there and remember there's a good chance that in a few years we'll see a combined growth with massive retirements (age 65), now that could get interesting. Boeing still claims that by 2028 the number of comercial aircraft will be duplicated in the world. Let's hope they're right.

 

I was a finance major so I have a pretty good idea of the economy works, but I thought a few factors specific to airlines might make things rebound faster. First, I thought airlines were running pretty lean on staffing when the downturn came. While there have been furloughs, most haven't been massive, unless you're furloughed already.

Second, friends have told me there have been plenty of times flights have flown with two captains. Also, some pilots have quit just because and some on furlough have given up and moved on as well. I thought those two issues would lead to recalls.

Mostly, I'm just surprised at how there is no good news on the baord. There aren't even any rumors about recalls floating around. That's depressing.

 

I fear that what we are seeing is not a recession, but a realignment of the global economy and domestic aviation as a result. I would not expect any significant hiring in the next several years.

 

2013 is a myth. There won't be a one for one replacement of retirees, just scope concessions and capacity constriction. Then cabotage, then the job will REALLY not appeal to even the suicidal "bob I'll take curtain #1 for 100K in debt for a 18K job, final answer" crowd. Nevermind the job you're vying for doesn't even have a retirement benefit worth writing home about. If your goal is a 50% odds of 75K CA pay no pension, then this job is in line with your expectations.

The dream is dead, next.

 

AGREED. The good ol days are over. To quote an American Legend..."Good times never seemed so good."

 

The last "good ol day" was Sept. 10th, 2001.

 

Even if 2013 was real there is no way management would pay the higher salaries needed to attract more pilots for the mythical shortage. They would simply take the cheap way out and pressure the FAA to allow even lower minimums and allow single pilot cockpits.

 

Lower minimums maybe (doubtful after Colgan but we'll see)...but a single-pilot Part 25 passenger-carrying jet? Don't look for that ANY time soon.