Patience is a virtue
 

Plane Answers: Is there a pilot shortage coming? | Gadling.com

For anyone that can hang on a few years and for those newbies just starting out, this guy's viewpoint (nothing we don't really know already), is something positive.

There is certainly some basis for his numbers, but he is only addressing the demand side of the equation. You have to consider the supply side also...the flight colleges and puppy mills will still be doing their best to create five newly minted commercial pilots for every realistic projected job opening in the next thirty years.

Unless the pool of applicants to the puppy mills dries up, there will never be a real pilot shortage.

The ATP requirement is about the only thing which could make a real dent in the entry-level pool, but that is already being watered down by the allowance to substitute ground school for for flight time!

There is no pilot shortage.

There will be no pilot shortage.

There are *plenty* of "qualified" pilots who are unwilling to work for the compensation & lifestyle the airlines currently offer, and plenty more who are unemployed/underemployed and will be some of the first hired whenever a recovery happens.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING.

Kit Darby & Co. have been selling this bill of goods for decades now...

Good analysis.

Are most of these schools self financing? I know that many of the loan underwriters are done writing aviation training loans for a while. Perhaps, this will put a dent in the mill output.

I think Kit Darby and Baghdad-Bob are cousins

I've been saying this for ten years now and agree with this statement completely. This coming shortage has been storied folklore for a long time now. There is, and never will be a shortage. It is nothing more than a method propagated by large flight schools to ensure a steady stream of gullable students. Some will argue that the age 65 change has delayed this huge shortage. To them, I say look at countries that still have the age 60 rule. Up here in Canada, which has the same demographics as the US, there are people tripping over pilots waiting around for their big break. As mentioned earlier, there will be a shortage of qualified guys/girls who will not work for sub-standard wages. But a shortage of pilots? Not going to happen.

I agree . . . No pilot shortage
 

I tend to agree that there will not be a pilot shortage at any legacy carrier in the near or far future.

As retirements increase at the legacy carriers I believe they will simply downsize their fleets accordingly, while continuing to outsource that flying to lower cost regional affiliates. There may be cyclical shortages at the regional level as companies will continue to need pilots willing to fly for regional wages and benefits. For example, McDonald's will always be hiring. Same for the bottom rung of the 121 airline ladder.

Just my opinion, but this will continue until the remaining core of the legacy air carrier business is international and a few select, profitable long-haul domestic routes.

For those of us who currently fly for a regional, I hope we like it. Because this is most likely where we will retire our careers, if we choose to remain in this industry. The reality is the 21st century airline business is very different than the 20th century airline business and it will never go back.

No sense moaning and complaining about it, just deal with it or don't deal with it. Lots of ways to make a buck in this life.

BoilerUP, we agree. Great posting.

If you are a new person or a current student not knowing if you want to pursue this career, in that article just replace airline pilot with bus driver. That should give you a better perspective. No mention there of the deteriorating conditions on the average pilot and why there will be a shortage in the first place, it's just a job. Notice I didn't say career.

if you are a new person or current student, please do not take advice from airwillie.

He may work for GoJet but I think his post is right on.

That pretty much summarizes my thoughts.

look for single pilot backup ops with computer/atc control. sorry, it's coming.

No, its not...at least not in any of our careers in transport-category passenger airliners.

I feel safe to say I will never see this in my lifetime, no less my career.

If I had Cheerios in my mouth, I would have spit them out! LoL priceless coming right after his post :D

There has been and will be. Look at any numbers and you'll see the proof.

Figures lie and liars figure...

Nu

Yep.

And my $1,300 MacBook freezes almost EVERY DAY.

I'm waitin' for what you predict, bud! Infinite drinks on me that it doesn't happen 'til I'm at LEAST 65!

Mine too :D

I'm gonna hold you to this. Lucky for you I'm a light drinker. :cool: BTW, how long 'til you hit 65?

The "shortage", if you will, will be akin to the same one that existed prior to 9/11.

The "shortage" is because airlines are reactive instead of proactive. They will be short on the line because they can't hire/train enough of the highly qualified pilots that are in their pool.

A better question would be "Will there be a shortage that our labor group can leverage into an improved bargaining position and better pay and QOL for pilots as a whole."

...nah, not as catchy.

Future Jobs?
 

Will there be jobs in the future? Maybe... A better question is, will they be worth having? I don't know.

Skyhigh

Will there be a shortage of pilots willing to work at a regional for $20k/yr? Maybe

Will Corporate departments have trouble finding someone to fly their Global for $200k/yr? Nope. Will Legacy carriers have trouble finding qualified applicants to fly their planes? Nope!

So we have learned there is a shortage of good paying pilot jobs. Supply and Demand.

Will there be a big need for regional pilots in the next 5 years compared to the previous 5 years? I doubt it, we have already seen the growth in the regional carriers and the 50 seater is dying. Oil continues to rise, which suffocates smaller aircraft flying short haul routes with thin profit margins.

This is easily fixed.

Just slap "RJ" after the brand name of any airplane and you can source it out for less. It has 100 seats? Thats OK. It's still an RJ, so will require "regional" pilots to fly.

The line between what is mainline and what is regional is getting so blurred, even my first class medical passing eyes are struggling to discern it.

When an RJ is flying from ORD - SAT, MIA - PIT, or other similar route, non stop, we've crossed the line.

There was a shortage and there will be again. Numbers don't lie. 121 carriers weren't hiring at 300hrs, majors weren't upgrading in 2 yrs, and the age limit wasn't pushed from 60 to 65 for no reason.

Like mentioned earlier though. The real question is if there were be any bargaining power for pilots to get their pay back.

Shortage?
 

There was no pilot shortage. Only a shortage of people who were willing to do the job for the compensation being offered. The economic bubble caused every industry to artificially surge. Now that things are getting back to normal it most likely will take a generation to reach another situation where there is a shortage of pilots who are willing to work for scraps.

Pilots will have to continue to fight and scrape to keep what they have now.

Skyhigh