bryris

Plane Answers: Is there a pilot shortage coming? | Gadling.com

For anyone that can hang on a few years and for those newbies just starting out, this guy's viewpoint (nothing we don't really know already), is something positive.

rickair7777

There is certainly some basis for his numbers, but he is only addressing the demand side of the equation. You have to consider the supply side also...the flight colleges and puppy mills will still be doing their best to create five newly minted commercial pilots for every realistic projected job opening in the next thirty years.

Unless the pool of applicants to the puppy mills dries up, there will never be a real pilot shortage.

The ATP requirement is about the only thing which could make a real dent in the entry-level pool, but that is already being watered down by the allowance to substitute ground school for for flight time!

BoilerUP

There is no pilot shortage.

There will be no pilot shortage.

There are *plenty* of "qualified" pilots who are unwilling to work for the compensation & lifestyle the airlines currently offer, and plenty more who are unemployed/underemployed and will be some of the first hired whenever a recovery happens.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING.

Kit Darby & Co. have been selling this bill of goods for decades now...

bryris

Good analysis.

Are most of these schools self financing? I know that many of the loan underwriters are done writing aviation training loans for a while. Perhaps, this will put a dent in the mill output.

CubCAPTAIN

I think Kit Darby and Baghdad-Bob are cousins

CANAM

I've been saying this for ten years now and agree with this statement completely. This coming shortage has been storied folklore for a long time now. There is, and never will be a shortage. It is nothing more than a method propagated by large flight schools to ensure a steady stream of gullable students. Some will argue that the age 65 change has delayed this huge shortage. To them, I say look at countries that still have the age 60 rule. Up here in Canada, which has the same demographics as the US, there are people tripping over pilots waiting around for their big break. As mentioned earlier, there will be a shortage of qualified guys/girls who will not work for sub-standard wages. But a shortage of pilots? Not going to happen.

JDFlyer

I tend to agree that there will not be a pilot shortage at any legacy carrier in the near or far future.

As retirements increase at the legacy carriers I believe they will simply downsize their fleets accordingly, while continuing to outsource that flying to lower cost regional affiliates. There may be cyclical shortages at the regional level as companies will continue to need pilots willing to fly for regional wages and benefits. For example, McDonald's will always be hiring. Same for the bottom rung of the 121 airline ladder.

Just my opinion, but this will continue until the remaining core of the legacy air carrier business is international and a few select, profitable long-haul domestic routes.

For those of us who currently fly for a regional, I hope we like it. Because this is most likely where we will retire our careers, if we choose to remain in this industry. The reality is the 21st century airline business is very different than the 20th century airline business and it will never go back.

No sense moaning and complaining about it, just deal with it or don't deal with it. Lots of ways to make a buck in this life.

MD80

BoilerUP, we agree. Great posting.

AirWillie

If you are a new person or a current student not knowing if you want to pursue this career, in that article just replace airline pilot with bus driver. That should give you a better perspective. No mention there of the deteriorating conditions on the average pilot and why there will be a shortage in the first place, it's just a job. Notice I didn't say career.

IBPilot

if you are a new person or current student, please do not take advice from airwillie.