Your Attention
 

I am sure that it has been brought to your attention before, however they have been saying that stuff for 30 years now. It works great to sell pilot licenses.

Lets all hope that it comes to pass but I would not bet the farm on it. Besides if it does then you will have thousands of guys like me to contend with who will jump back into the market ahead of you.

I am not saying that mass retirements will not happen. My point is that you can not accurately predict the results if it does. A better plan is to hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Skyhigh

Nothing like this has ever happened before in the last 30 years. This truly is a unique situation, so whether or not it sells pilots licenses...this attrition will happen.

Betting the farm on whether or not it this happen is just retarded. That kind of mentality is what got this country in this mess in the first place. The lack of fiscal discipline is to blame for all of our current blunders and..............wait......thats another discussion, forget it.

I am not encouraging anyone to plan their life around this, just simply giving opinions on factual information.

Fact?
 

30 years ago they had the same retirement charts and graphs. It might be a fact that retirements will increase however by no means does it translate into actual jobs. A lot can change by then. Believe it ,if or when, it happens.

Skyhigh

This is exactly what I'm banking on. Hopefully the trend will continue industry wide!!!




atp

And many mainline executives are salivating over subcontracting a whole new class of mainline aircraft to the regionals. Fewer expensive pilots at mainline, lots of entry level jobs at the regionals flying 90+ seaters for $hit wages.

The question is where will the explosive growth happen?

Yes Handhold I did read the entire thread. You can get your panties in a bunch all you want, but If you think the CEO's aren't going to farm out more flying to the regionals you don't know basic econ101. Reality is the aircraft being flown at the regional level has been getting larger and the pay has not increased to meet that trend.

Seriously are you a recruiter for the regionals or a CEO at the airlines? Your right the retirement numbers are factual. But there is no way any of us can know where the job placements will be. But the trend is the regionals are growing. There is being optimistic and then there is being realistic. Your optimism is nice, but as I mentioned its no where based on reality of the last few decades of aviation.

My wish is for the jobs to stay at mainline. No where did i advocate the growth of regionals. Obviously you didnt read the entire thread....because i explicitly stated that i am looking at all of this from the viewpoint of a regional guy wanting to move up.

Quite frankly i believe that with the slim margins on 50-seaters and the upcoming 1500 hour legislation.....many regionals will fold into chapter 7.

Do you believe the stuff you type? Because i see cutbacks in regional flying. Look at the amount of furloughs and the cuts in block hours. Mesaba will no longer fly turboprops in a year, Delta said it wants to cut 200 RJ's, Mesa just lost all United flying, and now Comair is almost down to half of what it once was.

I could go on with more examples but fact is as of right now RJ's are being cut, and the 1500 hour rule will cripple the regional industry.

Hopefully I'm wrong.....but this is how it will work.

Regional xx will file for bankruptcy due to the loss of 50 seat RJ's, in bankruptcy everything will be up for renegotiation union contracts, aircraft leases etc. Regional xx will emerge from bankruptcy with cheaper contracts across the board. Major xx (Legacy whatever) then farms out domestic flying once again to the Regional xx's who have replaced 50 seat RJ's with 100+ seat "RJ's."

As for the attrition panacea..... it's a sales pitch just like last time around it was the "Vietnam Era bulge" retirement that I was sold on.;)

hopefully you guys will be on one list before 2022