Even more qualified pilots on the street...
 

500 more qualified pilots are soon to be furloughed from NetJets. There has to be somewhere around 5000 pilots collectively on the street that all have thousands of hours of experience. I dont care what anyone says about a pilot shortage.... no one is going anywhere soon. Get comfy where you are and if you are flight instructing or building piston time this is the time to re-evaluate your career.

Furloughs Vs. Retirements
 

First let me start with the Furloughs

Alaska - 60
American - 1979
CAL - 400
UAL - 874
USair - 227
Air Cargo Carriers - 1
ABX - 254
AirNEt Cargo - 40
Arrow Cargo - 30
Atlas Cargo - 62
Centurion Cargo - 5
Empire Cargo - 4
Kalitta - 130
Key Lime -4
Omni - 40
Ryan Air - 36
Southern Air - 71
Tradewinds - 92
World - 34
Xtra - 15
Amr Eagle - 71
ASA - 136
Air wisky - 22
Comair - 298
Express Jet - 335
Frontier - 56
Gulfstream - 50
Horizon - 84
Island Air - 10
Mesa - 136
Mesaba - 39
Midwest - 270
Penair - 15
PSA - 55
RAH - 104
Spirit - 78
Sun Country 36
Trans States - 158
USA 3000 - 11
NetJets - 500

Total = 6762

Total number of retirements from DAL, CAL, UAL, & AMR by year....

These numbers DO NOT INCLUDE UsAir, FedEx, UPS, Alaska, Southwest, etc.....

2009- 6
2010- 13
2011- 15
2012- 299
2013- 695
2014- 892
2015- 939
2016- 964
2017- 1110
2018- 1258
2019- 1449
2020- 1653
2021- 1957
2022- 2016
2023- 2108
2024- 2047
2025- 2081
2026- 2011
2027- 1780
2028- 1767
2029- 1654
2030- 1240
2031- 975

Total = 28929

My Point Is This....
 

Be patient....No one can stop Age 65.

This does not include about 6-7 other large major carriers, which is thousands upon thousands of more pilots not added to my list for retirement. If i had to guess I would say double the numbers listed for retirement.

If anybody has the retirement numbers for other large major carriers, Ill be happy to add them and run the numbers.

Interesting food for thought. Thanks for posting that. Can I ask where you got the retirement numbers?

Where'd you get the retirement data? Just curious, because I've been wondering where I can get reliable retirement figures...

Sure, I got em from a couple of guys on here. A few guys got those numbers from their repsective carriers seniority list, If i can dig up the thread I'll post the link in here.

Retirement Numbers Origin.
 

Here we go.............

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...-schedule.html

Based on your numbers, then sometime in 2019, all the furloughs will have replaced the retirees.

If you double the numbers, then we're still sometime in 2014. It is my opinion, nothing more, that a handful of carriers still have yet to go out of business or severely downsize in the next few years. They have to. The only way to raise prices across the board is to drop supply. Raising prices is the only way to regain some professional dignity in this profession.

I think the original poster's advice is sound, no material movement is going to happen for at least 3-4 years. This is what we've all been saying for over a year now anyway.

The combined delta/nwa seniority list will lose more than 600 pilots in 2012 when they turn 65, and it goes up exponetially from there. And thats from a guy in the top 20 that flies the 400 in dtw. like others said hang in there, dont give up. The movement may not come as fast as we want, but it is coming.

if you read his post that is just for just a few airlines. It does not include LOTS of other carriers. And yes it will still be a couple of years, but it is coming.

I know it's asking a lot but could you list which carriers aren't included in your numbers? Maybe we could get a more comprehensive setup.

On a side note that's a lot of patience :o

Those numbers do not include FedEx, UPS, USAir, Hawaiian, Alaska, Jetblue, Southwest, Airtran....etc. So unless the 65 rule is an exception to those carriers, you can probably double the retirement numbers, or at the very very least increase them by 35%.

There you go.

Also guys this is assuming that no one retires early, and the airline sizes stay exactly the same as they are now, with no re-growth factored in.

If the country comes out of the recession and normal demand levels eventually return, airlines will be scrambling for pilots.

Yes I've read that but I don't know who etc covers. There could be 20 airlines not on that list. Hard to gather totals without knowing who exactly to ask. Might be able to send out a few PMs and get numbers from people.

The retirement numbers do not appear unrealistic, there are a lot of old guys out there.

However...Kit Darby made a lot of money throwing around similar figures for years. Don't forget to factor in mergers, consolidation, rabid environmentalism, etc.

I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.

And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.

In my mind the future comes down to two questions:

1. How much oil is really left?

2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?

Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.

Some of the smaller cargo carriers listed might not be subject to the Age 65 rule. I didnt list regionals either. I am looking at this from the perspective of a regional guy, and some of these carriers might not be a "move up" for a regional guy. But nevertheless....

•Allegiant
•Spirit
•Sun Country
•USA 3000
•Virgin America
•ABX Air
•AirNet
•Ameriflight
•Amerijet
•Arrow
•Astar
•ATI
•Atlas
•Capital
•Centurion
•Empire
•Evergreen
•Flight Express
•Kalitta Air
•Kalitta Charters II
•Lynden
•Mountain Air Cargo
•National
•Polar
•Southern Air
•Tradewinds

Alaska is 106

Piedmont 71

Mesaba 79

Thanks new total furloughed number = 6919

From what I have been researching, the country WILL NOT come out of this recession. This isn't your typical economic dip. The economic numbers do not ad up, and we all know numbers DO NOT lie. Right now the government is throwing tons of cash into a Grand Canyon size hole to give the appearance we are recovering. Eventually the bubble will pop again. The economy is directly linked to the aviation business and will not recover until the country does. I think by the time things change for the better, most aircraft will be UAV's LOL (at least cargo), so you will be like me flying a desk!

I'm sorry................these numbers are kind of a weak proposal to me. So at the moment we estimate there to be around 7000 "qualified" pilots on the street. And some say that by 2019 if everything stays exactly the same with demand, airline size and seating capacity there should be room in the system to absorb all of the furloughs. So that means someone is going to sit by the phone for 10 years? Phew........that's dedication. I guess I'm the only one that took out a few loans for training.

I can't speak for these guys myself but there are a ton of pilots that are in the military that may one day feel the need to fly for an air carrier. I would estimate (just a guess) that there may be 500-1000 guys that will come out in the next 10 years or so that are quite qualified. Plus, the relentless new students that have a dream. Heck I can't even estimate how many motivated students will be properly trained and qualified in ten years.

Anything can happen in ten years. Re-regulation; system-wide downsizing (we are seeing that now); another 9/11; Big mergers; new found technologies making the need for crews more efficient.

This is just some healthy APC debating. I'm not trying to ruin anyone's dream. I usually see the glass half-full. In this case, if you look at the "Big Picture" and not what you have heard from someone that has something to benefit by saying there will be a "shortage" you may see the glass half-empty. Back when I started flying in 99 all I kept hearing was how there was going to be this huge shortage of pilots in a few years. Sure there was for a little while and then they all got furloughed.

Just my opinion - please don't get offended.

Keep your doom and gloom for another forum, stay on topic here please.

Besides.....your lack of faith in the american people is unsettling.

Read the entire retirement numbers post please, those retirement numbers only include 4 carriers.

It will not be 10 years before airlines start to hire again, you just wait and see.

Maybe you need to read about something called "The Great Depression". I don't see any huge tent city yet.

Comair is at 319 furloughed right now with more to come through January.

Midwest furloughs are now 400

I really doubt you'll see too many NetJet guys looking into working at GoJet or any airline for that matter.

For those that missed it.....None of the retirement numbers included these carriers:

OMFG.................I said earlier that regionals are not included.

Mesa is 176 soon to be much much greater

Thank you both.

New Furloughed Total = 7115

Thank you.

We are up to 7115 Furloughed Pilots.

Did I leave or forget anyone else?

Btw....I wish all the furloughed guys nothing but good fortune. Maybe some of the stuff I am getting at can be a small beacon of hope.

Ok, my bad.........I'll take your word for it on those numbers. I'm not sure if you have read further into airline economics but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. The airlines may hire a bit in the future however, there are just way too many seats in the sky to make any money. So I see quite a bit of downsizing before the numbers tell the real truth. Just because an airline has 300 people set to retire that year doesn't mean they are going to hire another 300 to fill the vacancies.

Sure, maybe every pilot will be sucked up from the street one day. They maybe hiring guys in diapers again. But do you think they are going to pay anybody a livable wage? The reason for the last hiring boom was because the airlines figured out how to take advantage of their cheap help. Sell tickets below a normal cost to pay the bills; the pilots will always fly for close to nothing. Just being a pilot is nothing unless you can pay your bills. Just YOU wait and see.

And I believe the list said 136 for ASA. There are now 156 guys on the street.

I'm pretty sure 136 is correct, 156 is most definitely not.

Im sorry but if the thousands of men and women above the regional level of flying can't live off of what the majority of them are making, then maybe they need a lesson in Economics 101.

We are not being paid what we deserve, I agree, BUT to say we are not being paid livable wages is an extremely irrational argument.

for some reason im think the united number is a tad low- it should be much higher- ill try and find the exact number

Skyway shut down and 200 lost flying jobs. Granted they are no longer in business