on the original topic: like has been said before there are thousands more of qualified charter crews and corporate departments that were completely dismantled during this recession.

I think the heart of the topic is that even if there is a strong showing of retirements and movement; there are people with 10,000+ hours waiting in the wings to compete for those jobs. A lowly regional FO that was hired in the 1000-2000 hr range and a couple years under his belt is still going to be at a distinct disadvantage. The CFI's today have what to look forward to? hopefully a job at a regional? in 4-5 yrs? and how many more years before they are competitive to apply to a major?

No thanks. There are jobs that are less demanding and compensated a lot better than instructing/banner towing/going broke for 4-5 yrs.

If you have been furloughed for a few years, then you have most likely moved on to something else. I would venture a guess that more than 50% offered recall will turn it down.

I do believe the flood gates will open soon enough.

The 800lb Gorilla in the room is cabotage, and anything else can also happen. No one can predict the future (OK, maybe Nostradamus) so this type of analysis is basically wishful thinking and there is nothing wrong with being optimistic.

These retirement lists are useful to a point, but they hold everything except retirements constant and just extrapolate the current conditions into the future. Well how long has the aviation industry gone 10+ years without some major upheavals? In the last 10 years we have had:911, two wars, SARS, H1N1, a severe recession, bankruptcies, consolidation, a retirement age change, runaway fuel prices and the next 10 years will probably not be boring either.

I remember about two years ago when the fractionals were kicking butt a pilot posted a very good analysis of how the career compensation was better at Netjets then the majors - it was a good analysis with the exception that it extrapolated the current conditions out over 25-30 years which will usually not work in this industry.

Like I said, this type of analysis is somewhat useful but has some serious limitations. Plan for the worst and hope for the best and always, always have a fallback plan B not related to aviation.

Scoop

so heres my story...i graduated from a great aviation university with cfi/i, agi, igi, etc. im done crying because i never got started with the training date that was originally given to me by a regional (before i even graduated) and never made it to class. i cried for too long and it made me depressed. now all i know is that i love flying, friends, and women...and i have them all in my life right now in some way or another. if any you young guys wanna give up now thats fine with me...just wait to hear my voice greet you once we reach 10,000'...wde

you may have to put up to 400 UPS guys on your list. We'l know soon

Did you spit while screaming this and kick someone in the chest into a dark pit of doom? :D I couldn't help but think of that popular scene from '300' when reading that quote from your post.

USMCFLYR

This has been an interesting discussion. I believe NoHandHold’s optimism is warranted; not just because of the retirement numbers posted, but because of economics, statistics, and demographics. Cases in point:

• Keynesian Economics- The GDP is rising mainly because of government intervention at the moment, but rising regardless of the formula.

• This will be a slow recovery. Hours worked need to be replaced to current job holders before employers begin hiring again; i.e. the average work week has been 33 hours over the last year (recall/furlough correlation).

• As companies slowly return back to profitability and growth, their travel requirements will expand.

• As the population increases, travel demand will increase.

• Nearly 8000 people turn 60 each day; if this linear, 8000+ people will be turning 65 each day in 2011. (Age 65 correlation)

• New Student pilot starts have been decreasing (-3350 from 2007 to 2008)

• Multi-class certificates are on the decline: i.e. pilots flying more high performance single engine aircraft.

• Aerospace and aviation typically follows Real GDP by 12-18 months.

• Beyond all of the doom and gloom, The FAA is still forecasting an annual 13% increase in travel demand.

It is feasible that all segments of the aviation industry will recover, albeit at a slow climb. Like someone else mentioned, all it takes is another 9/11 or a rogue nation to launch a nuke, or the next bout of politics or lack of integrity from Wall Street to throw this off kilter. But for the moment, the macro elements as they pertain to aviation signal resilience.

You know it sometimes seems as if alot people actually want this country to continue to fail. I wish those folks would pack up all their crap and move to mexico.

...to catch up with their jobs

Some of them, not all, would love to see the aviation industry not recover at all. It would help prove their point. Sad.

What point? That if there's going to be government intervention then there should be government subsidies?

The while back we held for almost an hour, very close to diverting to the alternate, going to EWR. Had I bed 30+ aircraft on freq having to hold. Speedbird on down. Finally an AMR guy came on and said he called his wife and found out that Joe Biden was having a fund raiser in New York so the whole airspace shut down. People were diverting left and right. A fundraiser! I wonder how much money the airlines blew because someone wanted to go to a fundraiser.

This is one of the few industries where we live and die by the governments rules. Tomorrow they could say the 737 is unsafe and must be grounded and we'd have no choice.

Touche sir.............Tou-freaking-che.:D

The future
 

No matter what the future of aviation will be very different from its past. Our industry has gone through a massive upheaval over the last 8 years. Where the chips fall no one really knows.

I don't think that anyone should count themselves out nor should anyone think that they have got it made either. There will be jobs in the future and if a pilots only concern is to be able to fly a plane then I don't think that they have anything to worry about. However if you want to be able to preserve a family life and financial security then that is another matter entirely.

If you are young and unattached then you had better hope that wages continue to fall and working conditions to deteriorate, because there are thousands upon thousands of experienced pilots on the sidelines who will materialize out of the woodwork to rejoin the industry if conditions improve.

Skyhigh

Gulfstream has cleared all their furloughs. All 50 are back to work.

That could mean that the aviation industry is back on the rise.:D

I would really like to see some hard data on that one....:eek:

I heard that if the pilot paid Gulfstream $25K, they would call them back off furlough. ;)

Here is the UPS Retirement list. As stated earlier our union is trying to furlough 400.

2009 60
2010 44
2011 51
2012 61
2013 65
2014 79
2015 100
2016 96
2017 97
2018 88
2019 138
2020 140
2021 177
2022 161
2023 188

Looks like we have a post here!

Agreed!

I believe the number for 2012 is actually 3

Who is trying to?

When the company announces a furlough number of 300 and our union comes back a few months later and says the number is closer to 400-450 I have to wonder.

I don't care if the union number is correct, it is the company's job to announce furlough numbers. When the Union does the company's job I have to wonder if our EB is in bed with the managers, the over 60 crowd has gone to the EB complaining about all the young whipper snappers up in ANC, or if our EB is just really that stupid. Either way it doesn't give me a warm fuzzy.

YGBSM. Since when does the union have the power to furlough anyone? Do you really think that they are in bed or are you just on hallucinogenic drugs? It is the company's job to announce furloughs, and when the time comes that's where you'll hear it. Try decaf.

I'm on drugs? Obviously you have been a 767 captain for too long. Now I could be wrong, but here is what I think is going to go down in the next few months. The company has announced 300 furloughs, the IPA, in talks with the company learn that the real # is 400 and decide to do the company's job and break this news to us via AM's video. The added $ needed to extend the MOU will not be found. Through some high level "talks" the company and union agree to furlough 200, each side calling a victory because they only had to furlough 200 instead of 400. When 200 was the number all along.

Every Pax pilot on this board has seen the exact same tactics on the passenger side of things. (Threat of furlough, concessions, furlough, BK, more concessions, more furlough) The only difference is our MOU which bought us some time, and UPS doesn't need to waste time with the whole BK thing. I am pretty sure we could drop 150-175 FO's out of ANC on APR 1st without missing a beat.

what does my time in the left seat have to do with it? Anyway, I'm not going to argue with any of your scenario, I find it quite plauable excpet when you say that w ebrought the higher number to the company's attention. The company knows all to well how fat we are. I don't know how long you have been here, buit history has shown that we never agree with the company's numbers on anything. When the company came out with the 300 number, and the union agreed, I knew that the real number had to have been higher.

I'm not sure why you see a conspiracy on the part of the IPA. What would the point of that be?

Just Remember...
 

As soon as there is the mere perception of a rebound in the piloting profession, the amount of training will skyrocket to MORE than cover any retirements. The data on retirements shows that it will be at least 5-10 yrs before they really add up to much. Thats plenty of time to enroll in the aviation college of your choice and be ready to take any low-paying regional or CFI gig that MIGHT be available.

3 to six months
 

The biggest problem with our profession, aside from the fact that most of us seem eager to do the job for free, is that it really does not take all that much of an investment to get into.

A barber has to spend a year and a half of day long instruction and observation before they can give someone a flat top. It takes an electrician 2 to 4 years of apprenticeship before they can legally install an outlet for hire. However it only takes three months and a small stack of king tapes to go from zero to a commercial multi-engine pilot.

If there really is a pilot shortage the airlines I am sure will cry for thew Multi- Crew License and will gain the right to train new pilots in even less time. New pilots can be stamped out by the thousands in a matter of months if need be. There is no value in the profession anymore.

Skyhigh

ummmmm what?

Give the guy a break, it was 2am when he posted that. Me thinks he was under the influence.

Actually he's right. It was sign on the line for a flight training loan, head to ALL ATP's or whatever quickie joint you find and 90 days later you'd be interviewing for a regional job (obviously it won't be that easy again for a while).

The pain and commitment ("investment") all come later when it's too late....

Yea ok sure.....$70,000 is no small investment.

best experience money can buy!

To expand
 

It does not take that much of an investment in time or education to become a commercial pilot.

In addition I am on the west coast. If the time stamp was for 2:am it must have been in regards to east coast time. :) Funny though....

Skyhigh

Ummmmm what?

A few more furloughed pilots for your list...
 

Hey NoHandHold,

I know what you are getting at, but you left out a few companies that collapsed last year that have a significant number of pilots on the street or ones that were hired and furloughed again by their new company. I think that you should take these numbers into account when calculating your total furloughed number. This includes: Skybus, FocusAir, Cargo360, Silverjet, Maxjet, Kitty Hawk Air Cargo, Gemini Air Cargo, Anheuser-Busch Flight Department, GM Flight Department, etc.

Also, Flexjet, FlightOptions, Citation Shares, PlaneSense, Dayjet, etc. have a large number of pilots on furlough. I would expect that this mini-Depression (OK, "Great Recession") has the number of total unemployed or underemployed (I.E., CFI's with only 1 student) to be pushing the 10,000 mark. Just the number from the incomplete list above should push it to 9K. Heck, there are probably still some Braniff, Eastern, Pan AM, Emery, Tower Air, Kiwi, Legend, Reliant, West Air, etc. pilots on the street, having been through multiple bankruptcies.

My point is that there are more qualified people on the street than we realize. On the other hand, I disagree with the pilots here that expect the rate of student starts to increase with increased demand. There are not THAT many trust fund babies out there that will be willing to put up with the new reality of this career. Just look at the press regarding pilots lately, Sully not withstanding. Pilots overworked, underpaid, and living in their cars in the LAX parking lot. Just today, when a girl asked a friend of mine what he did.. He said "I am a pilot..." And she said, disapprovingly, "Oh..." That did not happen until recently.. Not only has the public's respect for our profession fallen this decade, I think that our own confidence and self-respect has waned also. We have taken hits from all sides, and continue to do so.:mad:

Next, the unlikely positive is that this economy may start working in our collective favor. I know that sounds crazy, but consider this: The word is out on the street; Pilots DO NOT make a lot of money anymore and the job is no longer glamorous. The Congressional Hearings on the Colgan FO's $16000.00/YR. salary helped bring this into the light. Kit Darby is no longer making millions telling pilot wannabes how great a career this is and that "your dream job is out there". He was selling that same line in the black days of the early nineties when thousands of pilots were getting furloughed, but people were paying $195 a pop to attend pilot job fairs where nobody was hiring. I used to tell my peeps that if I ever won the Powerball (you know, the BIG Powerball), that I would stand out in front of Kit Darby's AirInc Job Fairs (with my posse, of course..) and hand pilots $195 cash NOT to attend. Of course, I would provide them with the same contact and hiring information to them FREE OF CHARGE, like it should be. Anyway, he's not out there blowing sunshine to CNN like he used to. And let's not forget going to the bank for a loan. Sure, we will always have the kids whose family paid for everything and are CRJ Captains at 24... But that's not the average. It used to be that getting a student loan or JTPA grant was as simple as going to the bank and saying "Please loan me this money so I can become a commercial pilot and make $300,000/Yr.". The word is out... Pilots don't make that kind of money anymore and English Literature Majors are likely to make more money. The banks won't loan money to people who want something of value that can be repossesed (houses and cars): What makes you guys think that banks will make these loans to pilots like they used to? Unlike Doctors wanting a loan to start their practice, with us there is no way to guarantee that we will succeed or stay successful.

Finally, the "pilot shortage" that I have been hearing about for 20 years may never really happen, but the source of pilots is definitely drying up... Kit Darby is gone, the Military has cut back and increased length of duty requirements, Mesa has stopped it's ab initio program, Gulfstream has slowed down with furloughs and bad press,aviation training, rental and fuel prices have jumped, and student loans have come to a standstill.

While I am not an optimist regarding this industry, I think that the above challenges will make it increasingly difficult for those who haven't already invested too much to quit, to get their fix of "shiny jet syndrome". Much like the aspiring actress that goes to Hollywood to find silver screen stardom, only to find herself in the adult film industry is where we find ourselves in this industry today. We collectively love what we do more than any group of people I know, even musicians... We just love the music too much, and the aviation industry meatgrinder knows this. But maybe, the lack of loans, student starts, bad press, etc. might slow the flow enough to make those pilots who hang on careers better. I'm not counting on it, though.

Best of luck to you all in this crazy biz....

In Unity,

B727DRVR:cool:

For once, I actually agree with SkyHigh. Why are you expressing such surprise? Indeed, it does not take much of a time or education investment to become a commercial pilot. Also, it only takes average aptitude, ability and intelligence.....no particular exceptional attributes are required. If you think otherwise, you're only fooling yourself.

Uhmmmm...so by your own admission you, me and everyone else are simply average, or else we are fools ( if we think otherwise). Hmmm, if we truly feel that way then maybe managment is right to treat us that way......:eek: Sorry dont see it that way!

Fools
 

Well lets examine this. Pilots pay a fortune in training and education to knowingly get a job that in return does not offer fair compensation or job security. They donate their lives to the company so that they can remain in the saddle. How can we expect management to treat pilots any better?

Pilots get kicked to the curb and keep coming back for more. "Fools" might be the most accurate term.

Skyhigh

That's a pretty large non sequitur. However, now I think that your reading comprehension is average (at best). I did not make any "admission":rolleyes: that even resembles that. You're not even close. Try again.

Did it make you feel better to try insulting me? Ok here's another try, Why don't we all as pilots stop looking for someone else to blame and take some ownership for ourselves. This ride started years ago and we ALL have a piece of the ownership of where we are today. We will always be seen by others, by the way we see ourselves, and from yours and skyhighs previous statements, I'm guessing nothing is due to change anytime soon. It's sad really.....

Sky, be honest what have you really done to change anything? (other than make 4,831 posts about how dumb pilots really are to keep flying)

You know, I'm not really sure if its the lack of egos, or the fact that everything is performance based, rather than seniority based, but since I have made the move to the corporate/charter side of aviation, I have noticed a big change in the pride that the pilots take in their jobs and in themselves. I'm not saying things are perfect, but people seem more interested in the job they do. I witnessed a Captain helping an elderly couple unload their bags from their trunk at an FBO with a smile on his face, I dare say, by the pride he takes in his job he does not see himself this way: (referance quote below)

I guess this non sequiter is too long to have been written by someone of average reading comprehension...:rolleyes: sorry to have wasted you time...