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Old 01-13-2010, 08:00 PM   #1  
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Default Let it thaw!

...the industry that is! From the look of things (rumor or otherwise), there is no doubt there has been some movement that has resulted in recalls and limited hiring. If the trend continues, more hiring is around the corner (springtime). Keep your heads up guys and gals!
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:09 PM   #2  
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Would have been even better if NetJets and Astar Cargo wouldn't have dropped a couple more hundred pilots in this mess already...

Let's hope for better things to come!
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:17 PM   #3  
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There are only a few things that will cause major industry movement, and none of them seem to be coming soon.

- Retirements / Attrition. Have to wait a few years for that to kick in, and we need a solid economy where airlines decide they should hire to replace rather than shrink.

- More airplanes at mainline. No major orders on their way at any major and no signs of scope being brought back in.

- Recall of furloughs. There are thousands of furloughs out there waiting to be called back to various majors before off the street hiring can really get moving.


Each one of these takes quite a bit of time to get going and they're not even showing signs right now. The only hiring taking place now or in the foreseeable future will be at...

- Bottom feeders. They suffer attrition due horrible QOL/pay and people jumping ship to go anywhere, or growth due to undercutting others. Not really what I'd consider to be something positive. ie: Colgan.

- Niche Carriers. No matter what the industry/economy is doing, there is always some niche that is booming at any particular time. But these boom times can come to a halt very quickly and you can end up on the street before you know it. You also have to be prepared to do "weird" work if you want a job in "weird" times... ie: Omni, International Contract Flying

- Up and coming / smaller players. These are our best bets but they are sometimes risky and can't hire nearly enough pilots to cause industry-wide movement. Though they can be occasionally like winning the lottery for a lucky few for those that get on with an airline that can successfully increase its market share. ie: Hawaiian, Virgin America, Allegiant

- Other than Part 121. These jobs are few and far between, difficult to obtain, and often do not have reliable career potential. There simply aren't enough of them out there to create noticeable industry-wide movement.



Aside from a few jobs, most of these do not present top of the line QOL, pay, or long term career opportunity/stability that most of us are looking for. Though things seem like they may be getting better, the realistic part of me says we have AT LEAST 2-3 years before hiring really starts going again, and that is dependent on us not having any more financial / economic issues in the industry or country.
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:25 PM   #4  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yamahas3 View Post
There are only a few things that will cause major industry movement, and none of them seem to be coming soon.

- Retirements / Attrition. Have to wait a few years for that to kick in, and we need a solid economy where airlines decide they should hire to replace rather than shrink.

- More airplanes at mainline. No major orders on their way at any major and no signs of scope being brought back in.

- Recall of furloughs. There are thousands of furloughs out there waiting to be called back to various majors before off the street hiring can really get moving.


Each one of these takes quite a bit of time to get going and they're not even showing signs right now. The only hiring taking place now or in the foreseeable future will be at...

- Bottom feeders. They suffer attrition due horrible QOL/pay and people jumping ship to go anywhere, or growth due to undercutting others. Not really what I'd consider to be something positive. ie: Colgan.

- Niche Carriers. No matter what the industry/economy is doing, there is always some niche that is booming at any particular time. But these boom times can come to a halt very quickly and you can end up on the street before you know it. You also have to be prepared to do "weird" work if you want a job in "weird" times... ie: Omni, International Contract Flying

- Up and coming / smaller players. These are our best bets but they are sometimes risky and can't hire nearly enough pilots to cause industry-wide movement. Though they can be occasionally like winning the lottery for a lucky few for those that get on with an airline that can successfully increase its market share. ie: Hawaiian, Virgin America, Allegiant

- Other than Part 121. These jobs are few and far between, difficult to obtain, and often do not have reliable career potential. There simply aren't enough of them out there to create noticeable industry-wide movement.



Aside from a few jobs, most of these do not present top of the line QOL, pay, or long term career opportunity/stability that most of us are looking for. Though things seem like they may be getting better, the realistic part of me says we have AT LEAST 2-3 years before hiring really starts going again, and that is dependent on us not having any more financial / economic issues in the industry or country.
When a turkey thaws, it takes the better part of 24 hours before you can start to prep it for the oven. Nothing happens over night, it all starts with a stroll which picks up pace until it's a 100 yard dash. You feel me?
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:28 PM   #5  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yamahas3 View Post
There are only a few things that will cause major industry movement, and none of them seem to be coming soon.

- Retirements / Attrition. Have to wait a few years for that to kick in, and we need a solid economy where airlines decide they should hire to replace rather than shrink.

- More airplanes at mainline. No major orders on their way at any major and no signs of scope being brought back in.

- Recall of furloughs. There are thousands of furloughs out there waiting to be called back to various majors before off the street hiring can really get moving.


Each one of these takes quite a bit of time to get going and they're not even showing signs right now. The only hiring taking place now or in the foreseeable future will be at...

- Bottom feeders. They suffer attrition due horrible QOL/pay and people jumping ship to go anywhere, or growth due to undercutting others. Not really what I'd consider to be something positive. ie: Colgan.

- Niche Carriers. No matter what the industry/economy is doing, there is always some niche that is booming at any particular time. But these boom times can come to a halt very quickly and you can end up on the street before you know it. You also have to be prepared to do "weird" work if you want a job in "weird" times... ie: Omni, International Contract Flying

- Up and coming / smaller players. These are our best bets but they are sometimes risky and can't hire nearly enough pilots to cause industry-wide movement. Though they can be occasionally like winning the lottery for a lucky few for those that get on with an airline that can successfully increase its market share. ie: Hawaiian, Virgin America, Allegiant

- Other than Part 121. These jobs are few and far between, difficult to obtain, and often do not have reliable career potential. There simply aren't enough of them out there to create noticeable industry-wide movement.



Aside from a few jobs, most of these do not present top of the line QOL, pay, or long term career opportunity/stability that most of us are looking for. Though things seem like they may be getting better, the realistic part of me says we have AT LEAST 2-3 years before hiring really starts going again, and that is dependent on us not having any more financial / economic issues in the industry or country.
And Pilot Stormcloud rained all over the thread and killed the beautiful post.

In general, there are signs of SLOW economic recovery and they always say aviation follows the economy. Hopefully we will continue to see improvement in all areas of aviation. Good luck to the NetJet pilots and those still on the street.
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Old 01-13-2010, 08:46 PM   #6  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snippercr View Post
And Pilot Stormcloud rained all over the thread and killed the beautiful post.

In general, there are signs of SLOW economic recovery and they always say aviation follows the economy. Hopefully we will continue to see improvement in all areas of aviation. Good luck to the NetJet pilots and those still on the street.

IF it helps 135 outfits like Ameriflight are always hiring.... Just had my phone interview. Onto the CP interview now.
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Old 01-13-2010, 09:08 PM   #7  
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Originally Posted by ugflyer View Post
...the industry that is! From the look of things (rumor or otherwise), there is no doubt there has been some movement that has resulted in recalls and limited hiring. If the trend continues, more hiring is around the corner (springtime). Keep your heads up guys and gals!
Unfortunately, a drop in the bucket. There are still people being furloughed and some by the hundreds. The curious trend is for these people that are hiring to hire working pilots, doesn't exactly help the economy. And by working, they're not talking about McDonalds. A lot of us furloughed don't have any choice but to wait it out. Oh well..
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