Maybe, just maybe, good news for Eagle Pilots
 

Not entirely great news as it continues to be stagnant through 2012, but always interesting to see the "numbers".

American Airlines pilots turning 65 in each year through 2025

Retirements by year

Year # Retirements
2012 5
2013 138
2014 220
2015 277
2016 273
2017 300
2018 377
2019 477
2020 575
2021 650
2022 699
2023 754
2024 759
2025 779

The bulk of those retirements come after 2012 which is the dreaded contract year.

I really hope Eagle isn't absolutely obliterated in 2012 so maybe yes maybe there'd be a future there.:eek:

Imagine things without the age 65 rule? I wonder how it'd look...

Maybe I'm just having a retard moment, but is this cumulative as the years progress? Or is it saying that in 2025, there will be 779 folks retiring just in that year alone?


I mean, 6283 pilots is a lot in a ~10 year timespan it would seem.....I dunno....maybe I'll just go back to my Shiner Bock.

779 total is still a lot. Here are the depressing #s at Skywest each year.

2010-1
2011-2
2012-1
2013-4
2014-8
2015-11
2016-6
2017-11
2018-6
2019-12
2020-20
2021-16
2022-29
2023-24
2024-16
2025-23

Total 190

those are each year numbers... yes over the next 15 years.. a huge chunk of AA current pilot force will turn over......get in at the beginning of their hiring cycle in about 3 or 4 years and you could be sitting pretty.

It won't be. You won't get rich working at a regional, but you will be comfortable. The big thing that needs to be fixed is FO pay.

On the subject of retirement vacancies; there are two ways to fill vacancies - hire more pilots or park more airplanes.

A couple of important questions:

1. How many of AA's 250+ MD-80's will still be around in 10 years?

2. How many of those aircraft will be replaced 1-for-1?

A couple of facts to ponder:

1. AA pilot staffing is about 10 pilots per aircraft. Park 250 aircraft and replace 150 of them equals 1000 pilot vacancies.

2. PBS. Depending on implementation, PBS increases "pilot efficiency" by ~15%. Fifteen percent of 8,738 active pilots is 1310 pilots.

3. Work rules. Currently APA flight hours are capped. If pilots can fly an extra 10 hours each, then approximately 8 pilots can do the work of 9 pilots making another 900+ pilot job vacancies not needing to be filled.

Barring something catastrophic happening either at AMR or throughout the industry, I seriously doubt there will be a great number of additional furloughs. However, as the above numbers point out, there is a strong potential for pilot vacancies due to retirements going unfilled for a few years.

Sorry guys, but wearing my management hat, this is what my crystal ball says the future looks like for most legacies, not just American.

So between now and December 31st, 2019, American has 2067 pilots retire plus anyone else that leaves for other reasons. Lets say half of the furloughed come back plus the flow throughs that move over - new hires might happen around January of 2018, assuming the active pilot list doesn't shrink further. Great!

Looks like the furloughs will be able to take care of the vacancies till about 2017 assuming most come back.

Don't count on it. Now that the old guys have realized that they can push their age around...age 65 will be disolved and it will be, "no age limit, so long as you can keep your first class."

The whole Age 65 thing was before I was really aware of the happenings of aviation and by that time, it was about ready to pass. How long was it "in the works"? Is there another plan to extend the retirement age? Also, I would be pretty surprised if many of said "old guys" would even WANT to keep working past 65.