Will 100 seat aircraft come to the regionals?
 

The reason i am doing these polls is to get everyones opinion on the future since it looks like there is going to be 2 main regional companies (pinnacle and Skywest) and a wild card in republic. Do you guys see aircraft such as the E190 and CRJ1000 at the regional level? How about the smaller C Series aircraft? I myself have already decided that if these aircraft end up at Pinnacle doing long distance routes - I might just stay where i am at for the rest of my career.
What do you think? Also, at this point - I am aware that Republic has already placed an order for CSeries aircraft - but they also have their own airline at this point.

Just for the sake of completeness, how many seats did the Ba146 have that Air Wisconsin flew for UAL ?

84...and Air Wisconsin is still the only carrier that can fly that within UAL Scope. I also think that it's certain tail numbers.

If history is any prediction to the future, the senior guys at mainline will sell scope down the rivr once again with the promise of more wide bodies

Regionals have received their largest aircraft. I think what most people don't understand is that there is NO 100 seat aircraft available except for the E190, and most airlines are not impressed with the product. Not to mention that most airlines, including DAL aren't interested in a 100 seat airplane. It's looking like 130 pax min is turning into the new norm.

It's unlikely that the airlines will attempt to fill the gap between 76-130 seat flying.

It wasn't that long ago that many people were asking if the regionals would fly pressurized cabins.

It wasn't that long ago that many people were asking if the regionals would fly with a flight attendant.

It wasn't that long ago that many people were asking if the regionals would fly turbines.

It wasn't that long ago that many people were asking if the regionals would fly 50+ seats.

Will the regionals ever fly 100+ seats? Yes. There's no way they won't.

FYI - Jazz just got 757s to fly up in Canada.

Yep thats right,

They wont fly them as a partner with a major airline. If they choose to go it alone they will fly them. The only way scope is going to be relaxed at any of the majors is with a court order via a 1113 motion. Thats not likely to happen anytime soon.

We need to quickly define something here. Are we talking about regional pay or regional airlines? There is very little difference right now.

By your tone, RAH can fly 757s for regional pay, but it will not be a problem for the industry as a whole. This is what Jazz will be doing for Thomas Cooke, as they will fly as one of their subcontractors. 757s for Dash 8 pay. Really good Dash 8 pay mind you, but still Dash 8 pay.

I thought there were a couple 146-300s that AWAC had with 100 seats...?

JetBlue seems fairly impressed with the E190...so does Republic. Delta also seems fairly happy with the E175s they have flying around between Compass & Shuttle...or are they not?

Also, the C-Series is what, 3-4 years out (allegedly)? Still plenty of time for an airline to to evaluate markets and get an order in for some early delivery positions.

As to the OP's question...I sure hope not.

The question should be: Are there going to be any OTHER 100 seat airplanes at the regionals? Republic currently flies a 100-1 seat and is a regional.

The current news is ripe with code shares far in excess of 100 seat jets. Code share will be the new "regional" contract, or any other scheme that gets around scope and puts super cheap pilots in the biggest plane possible.

Too many pilots are the common denominator to low salaries. If the salaries went up, the contracting out issue (by whatever method) will be mitigated. Salaries will only go up when there is a bona fide shortage of pilots who will work for $20/hour.

Quite regularly, there's a post on these forums proclaiming, "I don't care how bad the pay/conditions are, I want to fly for a living", and I'm not convinced that the 1500/ATP rule will have a significant impact overall.

And Mesa is currently operating 88 seats for HP/US ?

86 seats to be exact.

It is also worth noting that the BAe-146 that AWAC operated had a much, much higher payscale than most of the larger ones have today. It was a special operation which was tolerated by the United pilots because it was a small fleet (18 at its maximum), operated in and out of a few places they couldn't easily do (ASE and SBA) without bringing that equipment into their fleet.

IIRC, the top payscale was something around $140/hour before the concessionary contract went into effect. And there were a lot at that figure. It was not some unreachable number as AWAC had always been a company with high longevity.

It was a unique situation and not really comparable to the Mesa and Republic 86-seaters which are operated in far, far larger numbers to destinations US Airways pilots could easily do.

They don't fly those in a Fee For Departure agreement. The question is about that type of operation. Republic blurs the line of 'regional' because you can buy a ticket on an airline owned by RAH. You can't on most other FFD airlines which survive only on their Capacity Purchase Agreements.

Sorry guys, 50+ seat RJs are not going to continue long for any Regional with a UA/CO contract. Everyone I talk to indicates scope is the #1 issue on the JCBA. Existing contracts will likely run until the expiration date but eventually any 50+ seat RJs will be flown by United pilots.

With all due respect, this is the funniest thing I have read in a while!! :D

I think he's partly right. It all depends upon whether or not the mainline pilots are willing to hold the line on scope or even try to tighten it up in the face of probable gains in other areas in their contracts. The managements badly want relaxation of scope. The pilots want to tighten it. But management will undoubtedly offer some pretty big carrots for further relaxation.

The pilots will, however, have greater leverage in future contract negotiations.

[edit: delete insult, flamebait] "Mainline" "sold" 70 seat scope during bankruptcy at the same time they ate 40% paycuts and parked 100+ jets, including widebodies. No promises there. Just the facts.

just some perspective - in its heyday ALPA took in 60 mill per year while the airline counterparts were losing 10 mill per day. money talks and the airlines have it. throw enough of the green stuff and things happen.

Air Wisconsin was bought by UAL in 1991, I believe. Sold in 1993. But once UAL owned AW, something had to be done about the Bae jets. The above specific scope clause (by tail number) was the result.

Also, UAL's scope is 70...not 76 seats.

I think JetBlue is satisfied with the E190, but the E190 was RAH's only option short of keeping the B717's which obviously wasn't going to happen. No way was BB going to keep shelling out the respectable wages for those. It was an aircraft that at the time had pretty low wages across the industry. They're a little better at JB now, but still terrible at UsAir due to BK. The E175 is a different animal, and I think management is happy with those.

The C-Series is due out several years, but the smallest configuration advertised is 110 seats for the CS100. It's able to be configured from 110-130 seats. I know a lot of guys think Legacy pilots will just sell out more scope for more $$$, but I think they're wrong. The first mistake of not taking the 50 seaters cut deep, and then bankruptcy cut deeper. Now with consolidation and mergers, guys are losing even more seniority and are realizing they'll never hit that 757 or WB left seat. You may argue that this will result in them selling more scope for more $$$, but what has happened is they have finally figured out that the higher payscales are worth SQUAT if they don't protect the seats. High wages are worthless without a place to put your butt.

UAL/CAL is going to happen IMO. I think one of the main reasons the UAL name is being kept is because of our current Commander in Chief coming from a seat in Chicago. Also, Asia is expected to provide a very large chunk of air travel over the next 15-20 years, and the UAL name is better known over there. My point being, there are big scars on the Legacy pilots of today, and the damage has run deep. Short of more bankruptcy filings, scope is staying where it's at. We may even see it tightened.

That's why you put in your contract that Codeshares must be agreed to buy the union. DAL already has this.

Ya know, I almost chuckled with you. But then I thought, with so many UAL guys on furlough flying RJ's and E120's for next to free why wouldn't they take back RJ flying? If wages were established that were equal to/better then whats offered to furloughs then why not do it? At least the flying would be done by guys on the mainline seniority list.

Really? Seems to me they've been crying broke for years. Scope ain't going anywhere. It's sad that so many regional pilots are rooting for further degredation of this industry just to grab a left seat faster. :(

What most fail to understand is that Legacy pilots are not in the mood to sell scope anymore. Pay rates are worthless if you don't have a job. More and more guys realize this everyday. Do you know how many guys I fly with that look at Compass and say, 'When I got hired at NWA we were operating 170 DC9's, and I held CA in less then 5 years.'? Many have seen the light, and are in NO mood to sell scope for $$$. As a matter of fact, many will demand their wages restored, plus scope restored. Just wait and see. It's happening. DAL is 12,000+ strong, and UAL is gonna be another 800 lb gorilla.

Then we can call it the "new old" regional contract! Code share is how regionals started in the 1980s and stayed that way through most of the 1990s. It is not very lucrative to share code, that is why the majors went to fee for departure. Why split revenue when you can have it all? Plus, most pilot groups have domestic code share restrictions in their cba.

I sincerely *hope* UAL & CAL pilots are able to hold the line on scope, letting the 50+ seat RJ contracts expire and then recapturing that flying for themselves.

Management, of course, is betting just the opposite will happen.

I know there's a lot of ****ed-off pilots at both airlines, many of whom are junior and got there via an RJ and understand why "large small jets" are such a threat...but sorry, there's nothing in the last decade-plus to show me pilots will be united enough (and willing to concede enough negotiating capital) to recapture that which is already gone.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, for the betterment of everyone's career prospects...

I understand why you think that, I just don't agree. That being said, only time will tell which one of us is right.

here's to hoping you are right. I am just saying that they can out lawyer labor and out lobby them as well. labor has hung its hat on the legal process for years and lost big. good old fashioned spinal fortitude is the only real weapon left. my bet is they try the lawyer promises of good times once again. Too easy to take the narcotics of letting the union do it line.

While I respectfully disagree with you, I understand your reason for feeling the way you do. Post 9-11 Bankruptcy's really, really hurt this industry. I hope we can reverse the trend.

Having read this entire thread... the one thing I've yet to see anyone talk about is the proposed legislation to hold mainline carriers liable for they regionals the contract out.

If this happens, I'm guessing that either 1.) the regionals will get dumped and be on their own or 2.) the mainline carriers will fold in or start their own 50-70 seat operations with their own pilots. Am I crazy here? Seems that if this proposal comes to fruition, that the regionals couldn't afford to compete in the 100 seat market with the mainlines. Or they would just be run out of business...

A very good point. Something else to think about. Look at DAL shedding WO regionals left and right.

Most 'regionals' are now Fee For Departure airlines with guaranteed profit margins. If that were changed to simple code shares I would imagine the legal firms these airlines employ will find ways around that liability. Hard to say. Anyway, it is interesting.

I think though that the pilots will have more leverage next time around due not to a shortage per se, but to the fact that there will be more movement in the industry.

Finally, the fact that once hiring does pick up, the regionals will be picked over badly and I think there will be a shortage at the regional level. Nobody is getting pilot licenses anymore. Of course, that can change, but enrollments at places like UND and ERAU and FlightSafety are way, way down over where they used to be.

I don't see how not actually owning the airline would insulate Delta from liability. All the contractor regionals still fly the Delta banner and all carry Delta passengers.

My point to my statements are simple. Scope is not industry wide at 76 seats. Contractors have, are, and will in the future, operate more seats. There's very little beyond tepid determination that it won't happen.

SkyWest still flies a few pro rata routes in their system, for sure with Delta, and I'm not sure about UAL any more. They operate as a code share with AirTran. Republic is a whole 'nother can of worms.

The biggest three players going forward will be CAL/UAL, DAL, and SKW. I suspect when 77-125 seat planes are proposed, that CAL will be quite imaginative with proposals to the union about how many new A350's/B787 they can get pilots into. I can tell you from first hand experience on the SKW side that they have actively planned for 100+ seat planes.

History has proven this formula effective. Not today, maybe not tomorrow, but in the future.

100-125 seats in 10-20 years.
150 seats in 20-30 years.

Single pilot ops in 30-40 years.

The junior contractor pilots, and the junior major pilots, probably want this the most. What's in it for the people who give speeches to banquet halls full of shareholders?

Bottom line... it won't be cheaper, or you'd have that already. So.... why would they want to spend more, to become less competitive with the guys across town already hauling 86 seats around for $20/hr starting pay?

Keep dreaming and hoping.

Highly doubt any of that will happen, but even if it does, that will be the end of career opportunities for the regionals most of all. The legacies will still have their widebodies and large narrowbodies. But the regionals, if what you predict [wish] actually happens, will merely be flying airplanes twice as large for half as much as they themselves made (adjusted for inflation with all benefits and work rules thrown in) from the peak contracts of the ACA/Comair/etc era from under 10 years ago.

The regionals simply will no longer be getting these free fuel guaranteed profit margin glory days that they used to. We are seeing the last of those being inked with visibile expirations as we speak. Done. Once Republic is weened off their massive foundation of guaranteed money they will go the way of Indy Air, guaranteed.

At the pilot level there will be no more SJS because even the horniest, frosted hair, inverted epaulette wearing, backpack toting, iPod listening, mirrored Oakley wearing, Doc Martin stomping, shirtless volleyball playing, "I fly for [MainLine] proclaiming fanboy will have no choice but to realize, before the first flight lesson, that it will never pay squat, there will be no light at the end of the tunnel, and there will never, ever, ever, under any realistic circumstance, ever be "Paris, First Class, International" waiting for him/her at the end of the long, dark tunnel. Think pilot recruitment numbers are low now? Wait until there is essentially no mainline to go to, or even if there is, only after 15-20+ years at a regional first. Regional pay won't come up at all (all "raises" will still put them further and further behind the year 2000ish contracts) because at the core, RFP contracting, however it is structured, guarantees the decimation of those who do it.

In the past young buck pilots did it for the brass ring at the end, and of course some ended up staying as lifers for various reasons (many of which are some of the finest pilots in the country despite the "couldn't get hired" stereotypes). Even the so called "super regionals" are a joke because all it takes is one existing, or yet to be created, regional to make a lower bid, to bring down the house of cards by shaking it's foundation.

As for single pilot airliners, again I doubt that. We will see robot planes first IMHO, and even that will take a VERY long time. Not only from a cost effective standpoint, but from a liability standpoint. Without a pilot saying at 9900 feet on the descent "nice sunset" and then going off the end of the runway 20 minutes later, a robot plane will be 100% to blame and will bring a storm of emotional lawsuits even the most egregious pilot error NTSB ruling ever could. And sorry, but paying for an FO or not is simply not going to be a make or break function regardless of the price of technology.

In any case, it seems like you are not only predicting, but cheering for ever increasing regional/outsourced flying. Why? Fly a plane twice as big for 10. maybe 20 bucks more? Only to lose it in concessions/inflation before the end of the same contract that brought it to you? That's hardly career progression or even protection.

Mainline scope is your best friend and greatest hope. You can realize it now or later of course. The same goes for mainline pilots.

Ya, I've gotten a few responses like yours. Nowhere did I say it was a good thing, bad thing, wish it did (or did not) happen, etc... just my thoughts.

I don't work for a regional airline. I don't own stock in one.

My biggest fear is the exportation offshore of the regional model, as SkW / ASA did with Mekong in Vietnam. I see that disease spreading. There's no scope to even slow the disease. I foresee similar operations flying A330's for glorified regional pay. Anybody care to bet against this?

Money talks, and nobody flies as cheap as a US regional pilot. That's a fact. [edit: delete my unfounded rumor]