It can certainly happen, but it's nowhere near as likely today as in the early days of deregulation when things were still shaking out. It was assumed and understood that there would be post-deregulation casualties...

Now that we have three "super legacies", the loss of any single one would cause major economic disruption, especially during peak travel periods when there is zero excess capacity anywhere else in the system. The government would almost have to intervene. Even a modest sized major like US would cause enough disruption that Washington might save them just to avoid the bad press.

Regionals are mostly small enough that nobody will care if they go away, and they have the additional risk factors of competition, sudden contract termination, and getting stuck with obsolete airplanes.

A major with old (paid for) airplanes can limp along with them for quite a while. A regional which does not own a fleet of the "airframe of the month" can be rapidly kicked to the curb (see the comair thread for more details).

Also a less-than-competitive major can linger for decades, breaking even or losing modest sums...a regional in that same boat will only make it as far as the next contract renewal.

Odds of long-term stability are probably significantly better with a major (not including startups).

Clueless indeed. NetJets only has a couple hundred on furlough, with an expected rehire date in 2012... :rolleyes:

I agree with Rickair7777.

Rick may not agree with the following statement, but I personally believe that making an airline "career" at a regional is like playing russian roulette. It is only a matter of time.

Regionals DO NOT:

1) own their gates,
2) own their reservation systems,
3) own brand names with any meaning to anybody except industry insiders.

This is the world we live and work in. With a little luck and hard work providing a valuable service to our customers and our employers, most of us will get an interview opportunity to work for an airline with actual long term economic value.

There are no guarantees in life, but some bets are better to take than others.

SkyWest Inc
1. OWNS the gates in ATL that we use. (Look it up, they were part of the purchase of ASA).
2. HAS a reservation system, though it isn't used anymore.
3. Is a widely recognized brand on the west coast and the inter mountain west.

Next question, please.

mesa ownes gates in phx

You don't own those gates, the tax payers do!
kinda like, Go! is writing checks that JO can't cash

Well that ought to get on your own feet. Look how well it worked for FlyI and ExpressJet. :rolleyes:

Why do you hate us? You created us.

And your comment doesn't make it any less true that the one I was replying to had no idea what he was talking about, like most of the pilots on here.

I didn't create you. That was before my time. I also don't hate you. What I hate is your inflammatory attitude that you display whenever mainline talks about recapturing scope or in anyway hindering the potential growth of your airline. You chose to stay at ASA, & if UAL/CAL recaptures scope in anyway, & that results in backwards movement at your job then that is a decision you have to live with.

If you want to add non-inflammatory remarks to a debate as to why you think more scope will be sold that's fine. But your comments are often the opposite, using phrases such as 'beating your chests'. I see it all the time in threads about scope, mergers, and anything else that has to do with ASA.

I do agree.

Have you considered that when you cavalierly throw around comments about eliminating RJs, you're threatening to put me and my fellow pilots out of work? Do you not consider it inflammatory when you say tough luck, you're a contractor and we own you? Why wouldn't we get upset? We're real people with real families to feed. We're not just a bunch of recent college grads who just want to fly a shiny jet.

Simply put, you all want to be "Indian givers". You (or your predecessors at least) gave something away that you didn't want, but now suddenly you decided you want it after all, so you're taking it back, and tough luck for us. I learned in kindergarten that it's not nice to do that.

I truly wish we could all be as cool, all knowing, and a great pilot like you. In your words, since most of us on these forums don't know what we are talking about, please continue to impart your wisdom and great intellect on all of us.:rolleyes:

It is posters like you that make forums like this a crappy place to post thoughts and ideas from time to time because of the arrogance, childish, ANONYMOUS, responses from "know-it-all's" like you.

If you don't understand the general merit to my post, fine, but why reply with such a condescending and childish response by saying I have "know idea about what (I am) talking about?" Do the Legacy carriers a favor and stay at ASA your whole life, you and your great personality deserve everything you have coming to you!!

I stand by my post as being factual for all intent and purposes as to why regionals a poor "career" choices - including Skywest. If you think the few gates in ATL that Skywest, Inc. owns, makes them a "player" in the airline business, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I would like to sell you.

Technically, you are correct in your response about the gates, the reservation system, and possibly, on a good day, the brand name thing, maybe - and, technically, a female politician can see Russia from Alaska.

If you have a problem with me or my post beyond what has been said here, please PM me. Otherwise I am done with you on this topic.

I think what he's trying to get at is the argument goes both ways. Some people blame mainline for giving away scope but as you pointed out 9/11 happened. Airline bankruptcies occurred and concessionary contracts were signed. Others blame the regional pilots for "taking" their flying for less pay.

Some of us took a chance and left a CA job at a regional and made the jump to mainline. For me personally, there was never a moment of hesitation to leave my RJ job and jump to a legacy. So far, it's been the best thing career wise that I have done. My QOL is much better and at 3rd year pay, like Johnso, I'm making more than I was as a 6.5 yr RJ Captain.

The argument can be made that when you work for the company that "owns" the flying you have more job security. Obviously this industry ebbs and flows and we seem to be entering a time where RJ flying is being reduced and mainline flying increased. The same people who complain about mainline giving up scope then complain about being out of a job when RJ contracts are not renewed and airplanes get parked. It's a catch 22. I do agree with you however that not everyone wants to make the jump and resign their seniority, especially when you have a family to worry about and care for. Best of luck to you.

Wow, you sure told me off, didn't you! Guess you're one of those who takes being called out on being wrong badly. Perhaps "anonymous message boards" aren't for you either...

But at least you admitted you were wrong when you finished insulting me. Probably a good idea for you to quit posting. :D

Good post.

All this talk of retirements (mass or otherwise) is really moot anyway. As soon as age 65 comes close, we will see an age 70 rule. That's how they roll.

You guys have to remember, Age 65 did not just push all these retirements back 5 years. Yes, that was one of the major effects. However, the other major effect of Age 65 was requiring airlines to hire fewer pilots over many years because each pilot would spend more years working at the company.

Lets say a pilot was hired at an airline at age 40. Before Age 65, he would have 20 years of flying. Now with age 65, he will have 25 years of flying. That means that for every 40 year old new hire, airlines will need to hire about 25% less pilots than before.

It just amazes me that some of the worst aspects of being a pilot have come from our own group! We had a choice to keep it at Age 60, and we decided against it. One of the dumbest decisions ever made. It might rank up there with allowing 50+ seat RJ's into scope...

I never got a voters ballot on that.

14? I've heard of being optimistic but this is downright dreaming. Where do you see the world is rebounding? I keeping hearing about double dip recession.

I have a friend who quit expressjet to go to Delta. He isn't so happy right now. (Course he commutes to ATL)

We had a couple of guys that went to Continental, and came back because they didn't like it...

Then he does it by choice. He can hold just about every base except maybe SEA/LAX.

Is he upset with reserve/aircraft?

i didn't say that I actually see the rebound happening, but stranger things have happened. IF the stock rebounded, retirements would increase.

I bet we end up in a depression before mid 2011 so all the talk of growth may be moot