Projected Retirement in the next 18 months
 

I am not sure if this is the right forum to ask this question but since anyone at a regional will more than likely hope to go up to mainline I was wondering if anyone knew about what percentage of the senior guys at the Majors are projected to retire in the next 18-24 months I know that there are alot of guys on the streets but I keep hearing about this age 65 deal that will be a non issue in 2 years or so.

What makes you think "anyone at a regional will more than likely hope to go up to mainline"?!!!

Career progression or are you saying the regional is a career stop? for most.

The regionals are a career stop for many. Many see no value in starting over again to do basically the same job for a little more money. QOL is more important.

This doesn't make a lot of sense. When the age 65 law kicked in DEC 2007, it basically ensured that NO active airline pilot would be forced into retirement due to age for five years (DEC 2012).

There will obviously be some guys who medical out, as well as voluntary retirements but those are few and far between and hard to predict.

Actually there are a tiny handful of pilot who will have to retire before DEC 2012...those are guys who were older than 60 but were still on an airline seniority list in 2007 because they were FE's or SIM instructors. Some of those folks were able to return to the line even though they had already been forced to retire at age 60. I don't know how many there are, but it's got to be a very small number.


It will be a non-issue in DEC 2012. When the law was passed, it basically froze and extended all age-mandated retirements for five years. For the first time in the recent history of the industry there was no (or very little) steady flow of retirees out the top. In DEC 2012, retirements will resume on schedule as the guys who should have retired in late 2007 turn 65.

After that, the rate of turnover will depend on the age demographics at the majors (regionals have very few pilots anywhere near that old). The demographic details have been discussed here...

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...tatistics.html

Thanks for the link and the explanation rickair7777

Now that's funny right there. You won't make anywhere close at ASA what you can make at a Legacy. I'm at 3rd year pay and I already make more then a 16 yr ExpressJet Captain, and I'm right there with a 15 yr ASA CRJ700 CA.

Money isn't everything. Can't buy time at home watching my kids grow up. But I'm sure it spends well in a crash pad at Kew Gardens or on overnights in Accra and Lagos... ;)

Are you getting out soon?

Exactly, many 3rd year mainline pilots are making more money, holding an international line doing one leg a day when an 10 year RJ lifer makes $85-90 doing 5-6 legs a day, I just don't get it. I get not wanting to do Cargo at 18 days a month, heck go to Netjets and work 6 months a year.

I know a bunch of 3rd year mainline guys that are furloughed right now. Actually quite a bit higher than that. It's not just pay, its job security. I say that tounge in cheek, what could be less secure than a contract that expires every few years.
To each their own, I don't blame the gut that chooses to remain in the top 25% of the regional seniority, I however can't wait to move onward and upward

No, you don't get it! See my above post! No desire to fly the "big iron" internationally, I just want to make enough money to be comfortable and work as little as possible. I already have that. Not interested in waiting another 10 years to be senior enough to have the lifestyle I already have now for more money! Money isn't important to me!

Spent 10 years doing the regional thing and I can say without a doubt that the QOL at a major is vastly superior to that at a regional.

United has furloughees going all the way back to 1998!

ASA has a 10 year agreements with DAL and UAL that can only be canceled for extremely poor performance. I'll worry about my job in another 10 years. I'm sure we will not even recognize the industry in 5 years much less 10. Who knows what will happen?

But I'm satisfied. To each his own.

I agree with your reasoning. I just want to point out that the QOL, even at the very bottom of a major's list, isn't that bad. For the 26 months that I have been on the line at DAL, I've averaged 73.7 hours of pay flying 53.7 hours with 17 days off per month - as a commuter. All but 6 of those months have been on reserve. FWIW.

buddy at sw is 4th year fo with 18 days off average and over 150 a year. Hope that helps!

And I have several friends at DAL on domestic reserve who whine constantly on facebook about working every day.

If I decided to (or had to) move on, I'd go to SWA before DAL any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

The QOL reasoning is BS...people don't grow up hoping that one day they can fly a CRJ or a Dash 8 for their career. Good luck building a retirement or helping pay for your kid's college on $90K a year. I want to go to the majors and I want to retire and not be forced to work at home depot just because I was "comfortable" making $90K a year and not ever having to go through being an FO again. I am sure your kids will thank you when they are paying off their student loan debt and your debt well after you pass.

Exactly, just wish when I flew with a lifer they didn't spend 5 legs justifying why they want to stay, I'm fine with it, less competition. Personally I know a 10 year Capt at SWA who has 18 days off a month making over $200K, personal I like flying international as it is basically no work, as one UAL 74 copilot told me, as second relief all I do is make the bunk. 777 at CAL on reserve may be the best job in the Industry, all long call and my buddy had to fly to Houston three times in 9 months to stay current, he flew exactly one trip in that time. there are jobs out there with a lot more money and time off. But again each his own, glad the lifer's are happy.

Oh please!

Of course no one grew up saying they wanted to fly an RJ for $90 an hour! Even when I took this job, my plan was to spend a couple of years and move on to mainline.

But then a little thing called 9/11 happened. That was followed by a recession, a couple of wars, the era of airline bankruptcies, another recession, and here we are, 10 years older! Throw a growing family into that mix, and voila, plans change.

Btw, I don't need a part time job. If you can't live comfortably on $85,000 a year, then you need to examine your expenses. Most of the people where I live make $35-$45K and they're perfectly happy.

This piece of flamebait deserves its own response. I'm sure all the riddle kids hate their $100,000 of debt, but I'm a firm believer that you will work a lot harder in college and actually learn something if it isn't a 5 year all expenses paid vacation provided by your parents. My kids will be earning scholarships and working their way through college.

Perhaps, but perhaps they'll also have memories of their dad at home as opposed to commuting to reserve for a few years before getting furloughed. I personally plan to make the jump, the majors' lists are gonna be virtually replaced between now and 2030 or so, but I can't blame a guy who realizes what he has, is thankful for it and doesn't let his ego string him along in an attempt to fly a bigger airplane.

Are the regionals a sure bet? Absolutely not, but career choice in this business is all a calculated gamble and the QOL of a senior regional captain is still better than almost any 9 to 5 jobs out there (if you've got the right attitude). There are some guys who vehemently oppose the idea of going to a major without any real facts about it (retirement figures, eventual QOL increases, etc) and also guys who have a total hard-on for the majors and virtually ignore the risks, both mindsets are frustrating to come across, but if somebody is making an informed decision, who are we to judge?

I average about the same amount of time at home as I did at my regional because of the improved reserve work rules (and I commute to reserve from CA to NYC!). I also make more money now (on 3rd year pay) than I ever would have seen at my regional, plus the company is putting 13% into my retirement without me doing a thing. AND I don't have any Accra or Lagos layovers. I'm also not working for a contract carrier. To each their own, but I think it's a much bigger risk staying at a regional right now than moving on to a major.

Anyway... sorry for the thread creep.

It's a job guys, some are happy with it, and some are not. If the senior guy is happy where he is, be thankful. His resume looks a lot better than yours, you don't want to compete with him for the job.

As for retirements in the next 18 months, I would predict that little will change from the current amounts. When 65 resumes, we will see the number posted for sure. Who knows what will happen for hiring. The eternal debate of the pilot shortage will only be answered in time.
I would think however that if we see a rebound in the world economy over the next year and the DOW return to the 14's, retirements will see an uptick. Pilots hanging on will have regained some of the wealth they lost in the crash and would be able to walk away with it.

10 year agreements that were signed a couple years ago. Don't kid yourself. There's less security at the regionals... especially now. The industry is changing and the "fee per departure" will be going away along with a buttload of 50 seat RJ's. I wouldn't call that very secure and was one of the reasons I left my 25% seniority at a good regional to move on to Delta. Anything you do in this industry is a risk, but you need to look at all the facts and take calculated risks.

I agree with this...I know I worked my A$$ off while going there. Paying that kind of money motivated me to do well.

Eewwww. Accra. Just stay off the WBs. ;)

As for NYC, you'll hold a line in less then 6 months. No Kew Gardens needed. 17-20 days off a month & 70-80 hours of credit. Funny thing is, I've worked way less on reserve at Delta then I did holding a line at ExpressJet.

Duvie said it all.

"A bird in hand is worth two in bush". There's no justifiable reason for me to walk away from a fine job now in hopes that I could have a better job in a few years (that is if oil doesn't again hit $150 a barrel sparking more furloughs).

However, if these contracts end, mainline forces the retirement of RJs, or there's some other reason I will have to get a new job, thanks to the massive retirements over the next 10 years, I'll have no problem doing so.

I think I'll take my chances right here until then.

And that's exactly what you're doing. Thats what I did. Anybody who stays or goes is taking a risk. No one is any more safe or secure by staying at a regional. Look at ACA/Indy, Comair, Mesa, etc. It can end anywhere, anytime. It's unlikely oil will hit $147 a barrel again as speculation has been made illegal.

Correction...unlikely anytime in the near future.

But eventually the oil will start to run out for real...at that point larger airplanes really are more cost-effective. Frequency will be trumped by price and you will have 777 doing LAX-SFO...on Mon/WED/FRI/SUN. Unless a cost-effective Jet A alternative is available in mass-production quantities, airplanes will start to disappear, smallest ones first. When? Who knows for sure...but sometime this century and I suspect somewhat sooner rather than later.

Agreed, but I think an alternative will be developed and in production by then.

I think it's entirely feasible technically...I just don't have a warm fuzzy that our industry (or government) leaders are capable of thinking that far ahead. Thye not only have to find and certify a solution, they have to somehow create enough production and distribution infrastructure to feed the beast. They generally don't want to spend any money on long-term problems since that would impact next quarter's financial performance and associated bonuses :rolleyes:

Maybe the guvmint will take care of it after it becomes a crisis.

Yeah & another problem IMO is getting the FAA to give the thumbs up on it. You know it'll have to be phased in & that could take 10 years from when it's first allowed. :rolleyes:

Let me tell ya... Accra is paradise compared to Lagos.

My understanding is that the FAA at least understands how critical this could be and is already working with ASTM and researchers on this. Also I think if ASTM certifies a fuel to the "JET A" standard, nothing else would be required from the FAA. They don't certify fuels, they certify airplanes, which come with a specified fuel requirement from the factory, which would be reference an ASTM standard (or equivalent standard for Russian, etc fuels)

Tony is right....Lagos sucks!!! The beer hurts your head. As far as regional vs major. My life is waaaay better at a major. More pay, more time off, more money in my DB plan, more flexibility (brokerage link) with 401k, less legs per day/year, no more "wow, this plane is small!", weekends off, christmas off, new years off, a contract....not a policy manual..... I could go on and on.

I do miss the younger crews and the family atmosphere of my old California regional base. Too bad the best Cali bases closed. The job security issue was a concern but my goal was not to reach the peak of my career in an RJ and stagnate for the next 30 years. Projected retirements helped reinforce the career advancement opportunity at a major. The guys senior to me were serious lifers at my old job.... I wasn't moving up till they kicked the bucket.

I felt I worked for the best regional and had many good years under my belt. Life would've been comfortable if I stayed but life is awesome now. I'll tell you in 30 years if I made the right decision.


For those who remember this....A decade ago the skywest policy manual really was printed on brown paper. We joked that it was used toilet paper and wasn't worth $hit. Sure is nice having a contract now and the benefits that go with it.

Even if the economy just drags along like this there are many many retirements at all airlines starting in a couple years. Maybe Kit Darby will finally be vindicated!!!!!

You are clueless. "heck go to Netjets and work...." Yeah, golly gee why don't you?

Maybe so and I'm not advocating staying at a regional forever, however people forget Little airlines like... Eastern and Pan Am. How do you think that 10 year FO at Pan Am felt when they said.. oh by the way.. we're closing up shop you'll never get your upgrade.... Everything has it's risks. Majors can go out just as easily.