What am I missing?
 

I know this topic has been discussed many times. Either I'm missing something or the magnitude is being underestimated. I'm talking about age 65 retirements. Using data easily found on APC I turned up the following combined retirement numbers just for American, Delta, USAirways, UAL and Southwest:

2012 64
2013 937
2014 1,198
2015 1,309
2016 1,423
2017 1,558
2018 1,670
2019 1,881
2020 2,104
2021 2,447
2022 2,276
2023 2,363
2024 2,400
2025 2,348
------------
TOTAL 23,978

There are currently 50,350 pilots total at said companies. So in the next 13 years nearly 50% of these pilots are scheduled to retire. Given the flight from the industry, decades low number of commercial pilot certificates being issued and higher retention of military pilots how are regional airlines to going to staff their companies?

Am I missing something?

Yes, energy prices & outsourcing.

FWIW, Delta is shrinking at a more rapid pace than pilots are retiring.

American & United are likely to do the same.

THe future, if we dont stop it, will continue to be outsourcing. I predict the future airlines are going to be:

1) Skyteam
2) OneWorld
3) Star Alliance
4) SWA and the LLCs

TEN

1. first you can pay for training, and put people straight to the right seat, thats how many parts of the world do it.

2. have the guy in the right seat not a real pilot, again how most of the world does it.

3.increase use of unmanned aircraft, this helps free up pilots for aircraft that need pilots.

The only curve ball I see is, I would like to see the stats of how many people are going overseas for better jobs. Also someone is going to come back and say, that the number of new pilot certificates issued has no really decrease, but the bulk of those are all over seas pilots who come here to learn.

Yep.

I think we're going to see a lot of the airlines 'absorbing' many retirements due to contracting fleet plans, out of control fuel prices and industry consolidation.

That -23,978 shortage just became +2,467 overage. Good luck, I hope you aren't furloughed. :D All kidding aside, I really don't think we're going to see the hiring we are all hoping for.. the major/legacy airlines will never have trouble filling seats.

1. This could be an option, however I don't know if it will be very effective.

2. I understand this could be and has probably been looked at as an option. However this would be a really tough sell to the FAA and public, and I can only imagine the outrange if there were an accident attributed to not having two qualified pilots.

3. Unmanned aircraft? You will not see passengers on unmanned aircraft and the military doesn't operate enough UAV's to have the ability to release enough pilots to have any effect on this industry.

Personally I think the most objective and plausible answer is simply bigger more efficient aircraft flying less routes requiring significantly lower numbers of pilots. I wouldn't be surprised if the regional industry as we know it today is dissolved / abandoned within the next decade.

I agree. Shrinkage/consolidation seems to be the general consensus. SWA would have to furlough 5,000 pilots to get to me but I appreciate your concern :-)

Sr. Barco,

Is that your Sea Ray?

No. I wish it was. Only airline execs have boats like that!

You work for SWA, you got it!! I'll have one someday, somehow!

Spoken like a true SWA pilot :cool:

"Good luck, I hope you aren't furloughed."

Spoken like a true regional airline pilot. Come on dude, lighten up.

How will people get from point A to point B if there is shrinkage? People need to travel. Will they drive?

+2

Have you guys tried to travel anywhere lately? It's almost impossible to use my travel benefits.

I know right!

+3

Everyone seems to be jumping on the contrarian bandwagon lately since the majors haven't begun hiring yet.

The shortage will come, it won't affect the majors, the regionals will always be here. Now whether the regionals will just get absorbed by the majors or not we'll see.

Ab-ignition programs for the majors will not happen. Look how long it took to get this ATP rule through the process. The most recent proposed end result still seems somewhat strict at 1000 TT with a University flight program.

There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots at companies that provide the most desirable of jobs. For other employers that provide less desirable jobs, they either improve the terms of employment (compensation, benefits, QOL, etc) or face pilot recruitment & retention issues.

The free market at work!

The only "wildcard" is whether companies like Delta, FedEx and UPS will back off of the hiring standards? I think that is the bigger issue, will companies at that level have to be a little less picky moving forward? Only time will tell.

Seriously? I was joking... how much 'lighter' can ya get?... :confused:

They will have to.... Its going to be a supply/demand issue, and if the supply of pilots that meet the more stringent requirements dries up they will have to adjust. They will have to adapt to survive which could be a scary scenario. Only time will tell....

I think shrinkage, consolidation and larger airframes will help but I don't see the companies I mentioned having 50% fewer airframes in 13 years. A Cessna 172 rents for $100/hour minus fuel and instructor. Throw in the new ATP requirements for 121 carriers and I just don't see regional airlines existing in their current form in 10 years.

I think it depends upon what you consider mainline. I forsee more outsourcing and larger RJs. And we're all screwed if cabotage goes away and foriegn airlines are allowed to fly within the US.

No, they won't.

There will be no shortage of "qualified" (simply meaning 1000 TPIC) pilots seeking those top jobs, and those employers will have their pick of employees from that candidate pool. For second & third tier jobs that offer lesser compensation, benefits and QOL...they will be the ones that will face adaptation.

There will be no pilot shortage. What there *may* be is a shortage of pilots willing to work for the compensation & lifestyle offered by regional airlines and bottom-tier LCCs.

Some people are dead-set in saying that demand will increase an extreme amount due to population increases, and while I see certain markets getting bigger (possibly at the expense of others), I don't see this being sustainable in terms of resources and cost. Just think about media and teleconfrencing technologies and how far those have advanced. You don't need to "fly out" and see people or have meetings all over the world, these days you can do it without spending 2K on an airline ticket for every employee that needs to go every time. Like it or not, there will probably be less business demand for air travel in the future as technology improves. Aviation has a hard enough time competing with a prius that can take a family 3 states away and back for $75 in gas at 3.75/g. That's not to say that there won't be demand, but as it should be, it will only be the people that can really afford it and are doing it for the time/convenience. The airline industry has been broken for quite a few years now with the explosion of low-cost carriers and regionals that will "do it all for less" and treat their employees like crap. Maybe we are starting to see things turn around, but in the future that is likely to mean less jobs, or at least not some huge "hiring" frenzy. Somehow airlines would have to become many times more profitable for that to happen, and they aren't even holding their own right now.

I agree...I don't think they will have 50% fewer airframes, however I do think they will combat employee cost, fuel etc with some consolidation and cut service frequency using larger frames. I also totally agree the regional airline as we know it will not exist, the Buisness model doesn't work unless the airlines can figure out a way to get the public to pay more per seat.

I want nothing more than there to be a pilot shortage and for pilots to take back just a small amount of what we have lost over the last 15 years or so. However I have been around / in this Buisness a long time and management always seems to find a way around improving or even maintaining a certain standard for their pilots. I wouldn't be surprised to see them to it again.

Massive pilot shortage coming. Foreign pilots are already in short supply overseas They will not be flying our aircraft anytime soon.

New requirements for co-pilots will accelerate the shortage.

National flight academys will be contracted to train our replacements.

Even if a major or two go away, the seat shortage will create tremendous demand and survivors will thrive until competitors enter the market. Some airlines will grow rapidly to fill the void.

Long trem: I think it looks good for our industry.
Short term: More turmoil for families and pilots.

Or not.

Your missing...

A. Cabotage
B. Age 67/70 is the new 65.
C. $150 barrel oil
D. Global financial meltdown
E. consolidation
F. MPL
G. Numerous other things that could screw us
H. All of the above?

You guys are so accustomed to being pessimistic and negative. Airline pilot hiring boom/bust is a part of our industry, just ask anyone hired in the 1990's or prior.. you threw out your resume, they all wanted to hire you, and you picked which company to work for (hopefully you didn't choose TWA or US Air.)

there have always been times of hiring and stagnation.... hell I know guys hired in the early 70s who spent more than half a career...18 years actually sitting sideways..... I think the next 10 or 15 years will be interesting to say the least.

A. Probably won't happen due to political heat
B. Took forever to go to 65. Could go to 67 but I doubt 70
C. Definetly a possibility but that is a level playing field and cost will be passed on.
D. Meh, you got to keep planning for the future.
E. People still gotta fly. Number of seats will grow.
F. Ab ibnitio? Going to have to happen.
G. Well sure.
H. Or none.

Lol @ Shrinking to adsorb the retirements. Lets do some math here.

What is it at delta, 5.5 crews per airplane? Sure...lets just use that for kicks. At their peak they will lose about 800 pilots a year, thats about 73 airplanes a year or 7 airplanes per month they will need to bench to keep up with retirements. Some of you really think that will happen? LOL

I just think some of you enjoy being pessimistic, but this isnt rocket science. Hiring booms and busts are a fact. Some last longer than others...this boom might last really long...and it might not. My bet is really long.

One retiree at a major will not equal one new-hire at a major.

One retiree at a major will also not equal one upgrade at a regional.

Even at half the numbers...Delta ALONE will need to hire 34 a month.

Add in everybody else AND Cargo....me thinks there will be a hiring boom.

A certain amount of absorption will occur in the beginning but how long can that last? SWA crews 10.8 pilots per aircraft. Below are Delta's retirements numbers post merger. Assuming 10.8 pilots per aircraft that's a lot of parked planes:

2012 17
2013 80
2014 195
2015 269
2016 330
2017 367
2018 448
2019 524
2020 622
--------------
2,835 through 2020 = 262 aircraft parked

2021 734
2022 551 (No NWA data after 2021)
2023 526
2024 521
2025 455
---------------
5,622 through 2025 = 520 parked aircraft (SANS NWA retirements after 2021)

People keep talking about this, but if airlines from all over the world are poaching American pilots already, how and from where are they ever going to get enough pilots to start flying within our borders?

Add in foreign carriers taking a sizable amount of pilots...and whaddya have?!

Hiring boom...a huge one.

Numbers and reality blow gaping holes through a lot of the opposing arguments. How one can argue with facts is beyond me.

The real Xfactor is the economy, jatropha fuel, and US deriven shale oil. IF these things take off....fuhgettaboutit...we'll be talking signing bonuses...loan forgiveness...etc.
And those last two are not hocus pocus...we are the Saudi Arabia of shale oil...and jatropha fuel is already being tested and used.

Over 8 years, DL would only need to hire a little under 370 pilots per year, hardly difficult. There are plenty of RJ and ex-mil guys to meet that even multiplied by all the mainline carriers. Certainly there is room for more consolidation at the majors, the reduction in RJ flying, certain to happen in the 50-seat ranks, will throw off applicants.

GF

Airline Pilot Central - Regional

Using the above link I found there are 9,905 regional airline pilots in the U.S. The major airlines listed below could hire every one of them in the next 8 years and still be short 2,239 pilots. They still need another approximately 11,500 pilots over the 5 years after that.

With regard to military pilots, If fly with F/O's every week who are currently in guard units, reserve squadrons or were active duty within the past few years. They tell me the majority of their military buds do not trust the airlines and are staying in the military. Minimum commitment is 10 years after flight training. Pay is way up in the military and I've heard of retention bonuses of $100,000.

Unless the current rules change the majors could hire every single regional airline pilot in the U.S. over the next 8 years and then hire 13,700 retiring military pilots over the 5 years after that and just be breaking even.

These are staggering numbers. I just don't see the U.S. carriers shrinking by 50% in the next 13 years. I also don't see how the regionals will be around in 10 years.

Total retirements for SWA+UAL+DAL+USAir:
2013 937
2014 1,198
2015 1,309
2016 1,423
2017 1,558
2018 1,670
2019 1,881
2020 2,104
--------------------
Through 2020= 12,144

2021 2,447 (Beyond 2021 no data for NWA)
2022 2,276
2023 2,363
2024 2,400
2025 2,348 (Beyond 2025 no data for USAir or AA)

-------------------

(23,978 through 2025)

St. Barco's retirement data for Delta+NW is wrong by a pretty good ways on the low side... these are valid combined numbers:

Mandatory Age 65 retirements:

2012 - 15
2013 - 87
2014 - 138
2015 - 197
2016 - 264
2017 - 358
2018 - 456
2019 - 540
2020 - 638
2021 - 818
2022 - 862
2023 - 819
2024 - 807
2025 - 716
2026 - 610
2027 - 509
2028 - 477
2029 - 473
2030 - 487
2031 - 423
2032 - 321
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24