Who really has a shot at PNCL's Q400's?
 

Okay, so PNCL's Q400's are out the door, with United taking over the payments. (See Pinnacle's BK Declaration) The question on every frosted-tip, sunglass wearing, ipod listening to, regional FO is where.

Here is my theory...

Skywest is a likely suitor, but it does take a long time to get a training program AND proving runs completed.

CommutAir doesn't have a chance. Their owner is extremely greedy and they are SUCH a small operation with only 200 or so pilots. You are talking about a 160% increase in operations in 6 months. CommutAir is out.

Mesa has a Dash 8 training program with pretty low 70-seat wages. They could seriously take over this flying with a long-term deal and leases on the airplanes.

Republic is a small possibility.

Pinnacle. There is a good chance that these airplanes don't go anywhere. The BK declaration said that United and Pinnacle were in agreement on a long-term Q400 deal, however, Pinnacle could not submit a competetive bid for the business. If Pinnacle does (and they will) shed a bunch of labor costs via bankruptcy I think you could see a bankrupt PNCL submit a bid to keep these aircraft.

I wouldn't count on it. No one was willing to lend any money to Pinnacl ecept Delta. Delta is now calling the shots for providing DIP $. Delta does not want Pinnacle to have other customers like United or US Air.

Commutair.

Mesa has a decent shot at getting the Q's. MAG was gearing up to start operating Q400's for DCI. That was the whole reason for the Freedom Dash contract with DCI. DCI propositioned MAG that if they would lease some Dash-8's and fly out of JFK, DL would purchase some Q's and let Freedom fly them under contract. Delta opted to go with the CR9's instead. I know before I left the crystal palace all the training programs had been drawn up on paper and signed off by the FAA, but nothing came to fruition due to getting CR9's instead. JO is looking to get back in the game post Ch.11 This might be his chance if offered by UA. On the other hand it could be any other regional out there. We'll find out soon.

I think the only way to keep them flying (Colgan losing 3 per month or so) is to have more than one carrier operate them. I doubt there is anybody that can ramp up 30 Q's in 7 months.

simple. RAH.

It's a toss up.

Mesa/Pinnacle

Commutair easily

I could see CommutAir getting a few early on because they are the only carrier that could start almost immediately, therefore limiting United's schedule disruptions. I imagine once someone else is able to ramp up their own program the majority would then flow to the larger carrier.

What if they just put jets in place of the props until another company can get ramped up to fly the Q's?